On this episode Mark is joined by:
- Mark Sebastian, Option Pit
- Russell Rhoads, Kelley School of Business – Indiana University
- Alec Clements, PricingMonkey
They discuss:
- The latest in the volatility markets in the US
- The international volatility market (VSTOXX)
- Interesting trading activity and developments in VSTOXX, VIX, SVIX, UVIX, UVXY and VXX
- The Risk Management Conference
- Eurex Virtual Focus Day: Trading European Volatility Markets
- Their Crystal Ball predictions for VIX and VSTOXX
- and much more…
Brought to you by Eurex and Public.com.
TRANSCRIPT
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Welcome to Volatility Views, the premier program for volatility traders.
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And now it’s time to take a deep dive into the world of volatility.
It’s time for Volatility Views.
All right, everybody.
That music means we are back once again.
It is Friday.
It is noon central.
It is 1 p.m.
Eastern.
You know what’s going on in the world of vol?
Let’s all find out together, shall we?
It is time once again for Volatility Views.
It’s the first and only premier program for volatility traders.
My name, of course, Marc Longo from the options insider dot com, as well as from the network upon which all of you folks are having a good time.
I’m having a good time.
Seems like you folks are having a good time as well.
A lot of you having a good time on the new futures addition to the network, the futures rundown.
We did talk about VIX futures a bit on the show this week.
So vol popping up in all sorts of fun places.
Yet another reason why, if you’re just listening to Volviews, and hey, we love our Volviews listening.
We love you all.
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A lot of vol talk on that one as well.
A lot of vol on the pro, quite frankly, it’s kind of like a vol pro in shorthand out there where everything goes back to vol it seems like these days.
The options insider dot com slash pro, the place to go to learn more.
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Keep coming to you for yet another decade as we go around the horn and see who’s joining us on the old program today.
First let’s go out to could be the hinder lands of Chicago or maybe out in Indiana or who knows maybe he’s still stuck in Utah.
Let’s find out he is the once future and present Dr.
Vic slash V stocks.
Aka Mr.
Russell Rhodes beaming in from the Kelly School of Business these days.
Mr.
Rhodes, welcome back to the program, sir.
I is always very, very happy to be here.
I did get off the mountain in Utah and made it back here and went down to Indiana and then made it back here to the very safe western suburbs of Chicago.
And next week the travel continues.
As we keep rolling out to the southern volatility Mecca, the site of last year’s RMC.
This year there were left high and dry, unfortunately.
But we are joined once again by the meatball, aka Mr.
Mark Sebastian from option pit.com.
Mr.
Meatball, welcome back to the show, sir.
Hey, good to be here.
There are giant reverberations here in Austin as PBR is being bought by TKO.
Yeah, I can’t wait to hear your comments on that.
I’m sure that’s your lead story here today.
Yes, lead story in lead story on the show.
Then also joining us, I believe doing his best Darth Vader impersonation.
I like it.
He is a newcomer to the program holding down the year X hot seat this week.
He is Alex Klemets.
Alex, excuse me, Alec Klemets got to do the British pronunciation.
Alec Klemets, the CEO of pricing monkey.
Alec, welcome to volatility views.
Hey, hey, good to be here.
Thank you.
Thank you for having me.
And Alec, because we are want to do with all of our first timers here on the network.
Why don’t you go ahead, give our audience a bit of an overview of your background in the world of vol as well as what the heck it is you guys and gals do over there at pricing monkey.
Yeah, sure.
So I’m a former rate fall trader.
I spent most of my career at Barclays and I did a spin as a listed options market maker as well trading short end euro rate vol.
When I was a trader, I used to write a lot of code, build a lot of pricing tools.
And I noticed a few things.
I noticed that the building tools is hard and the third party tools that are out there that they seem to fall well short of what I thought was possible.
So I got together with a bunch of co-founders about seven years ago and we started a company called pricing monkey with the aim of revolutionizing the derivatives pricing tools market.
So we built we built a product.
It’s completely different to anything else that’s out there.
And it’s a product that our users tell us that they really love.
I think it’s fair to say we’ve become a market standard with the big macro hedge funds and the investment banks for analyzing listed rate vol.
We’re now kind of moving in on equity vol and VIX looking to get our analysis really, really on point for those markets.
So if anyone else is anyone out there is interested in knowing more about pricing monkey head over to pricing monkey.com.
And although I’m not a VIX trader, I hope I can bring some kind of fresh perspective on the problem.
Interesting.
Should be a fun time.
So you were at Barclays as well.
So are you to blame for all the issues with VXX?
Should we point the finger at you, sir?
No I’d let before that.
That hold the bakles and not your fault.
Okay.
Just want to clarify that.
I’m innocent.
Clarify that at the top of the show as we keep on rolling right on into the volatility review.
It’s time to break down the latest developments in the volatility trading world.
It’s time for the volatility review.
All right everybody.
Let’s do it.
We’re going to dive right on into the vol review for this week.
And it’s yet another day where we’re kind of starting out mixed.
Lately we’ve started out mixed and we’ve kind of trended in one direction or the other.
We’ll see if that is the case today.
But right now as we’re coming into the start of the show, we’ve got the Dow once again kind of leading the charge to the downside off about a quarter of a percent.
So not a huge day, at least in the Dow S&P up about a half a percent.
So feeling it’s once again, well north of the 5,800 level.
It’s kind of been vacillating around a lot of late.
And the NASDAQ feeling its oats out there as well up one and a quarter percent.
So it’s kind of one of those mixed days out there.
And you know what?
Just because we always leave them off the list.
Let’s go check out our friends in small caps up about four tenths.
Actually, I take it back up about two tenths of a percent out there today.
So kind of a mixed bag out there across the street.
Nothing really lightened the world on fire with the exception, of course, of the NASDAQ looking a little bit robust.
Not all this green on the screen, at least for right now.
And with the exception of the Dow, obviously means our ball friends taking a bit of a break today off about a quarter of a point in Bix cash today.
But on the week, we are still net up.
We’re at about 18 and three quarters right as we kicked off the show that puts us up not quite three quarters of a point, about six tenths of a point from where we were this time last week.
So obviously still a little bit frothy, still a little bit firm.
I’ve heard all your complaints from all you all you’ve all put buyers, all you faders of all heading into the election so far, at least not really coming to pass, but we shall see.
We shall see.
There’s more to come as the election approaches and our old friend, Vol of all, a.k.a.
V VIX, getting a little bit firmer, getting a little bit frougher again this week back up to a one oh nine that puts it up about eight points from where it was this time last week.
All right.
Let’s head on out now to let’s kick things off in the old U.R.X. hot seat.
Mr.
Alec, as our guest, we will start with you, sir.
What is catching your eye out there in the volatility markets this week?
Yeah, I’ve been looking at VIX, unsurprisingly, VIX has a money vol a little higher than I’d expect for this level of the VIX index.
We’ll call my hours the flatness of the VIX futures curve.
It’s kind of pretty flat, the front pull contracts.
Dec Feb has got a little bit of slope, but it’s still the 20th percentile.
So I thought I’d throw the Price and Monkey backtest engine at the problem.
So I backtest the selling the second monthly future versus buying the fourth monthly and doing that whenever that spread is less than 0.3.
There’s kind of a variant on the classic sell the front VIX future trades, but hopefully with a little less kind of terrible downsides when things blow up.
But the result is really great, actually.
This trade has made money every year back to 2008.
And it’s down days of less than 5% of the time.
Its worst down day was 2020 blowout, which was a 22 loss.
But on average, it’s making 2.3 quite a lot on the futures spread trade.
I think so.
That’s my tip.
There you go.
I like it right into the meat, right into the the suggestions.
I want to give you something that you can trade.
I like it getting right into the nitty gritty out there listeners.
Well, we’ll probably talk about that more in a little bit when we get to the VIX futures curve out there, because a lot to be said out there is we’re of course heading into the election and things are, as you would expect, a little bit wonky, a little bit topsy turvy.
But before we get there, let’s go out to the southern volatility mecca.
Mr.
Meatball, sir, same question for you.
What is catching your eye out there in the vol market this week?
Yeah, you know, the VIX keeps trying to break back below 18 and keeps failing.
The S&P continues to kind of be hang out between 5,800 and it’s all time high today.
Kind of some weird price action.
Mark, did you see what happened with Goldman and why they’re getting smoked?
Because it was up this morning.
And then next thing I look, Goldman’s down ten and a half dollars.
It’s down 2 percent.
I kind of out of nowhere.
So I’m wondering kind of what’s happened with the banks.
And I continue to watch BondVault because that to me is where the real the real you know, if this market does break, it’s going to be from the bond market.
Yeah, I’m looking here.
I don’t see anything except for a bunch of people talking about Chinese stock purchases being down.
I’m not sure why that would weigh specifically on Goldman.
But yeah, you’re right.
I don’t see what’s turning.
You know, that means, Mark, more sellers than buyers out there.
And indeed, there are more sellers than buyers, but it was just weird.
You know, we had things looked super rosy.
I was commenting to Andrew that, hey, you know, well, this might be one of those days where we get kind of a parabolic second leg up in the afternoon.
And instead, they’ve just been kind of taking it down on the back of Goldman.
The other piece that’s interesting, and this has been a short signal for Nvidia, is that it’s worth more than Apple.
Every time it’s done that once and that was the last time it peaked.
So just keep that in mind.
Yeah, I mean, Goldman down about 15 handles from the high intraday today.
So they’ve had quite the wild day up to nearly 530 listeners, 52880 now trading 51388.
So quite a wild intraday swing here for Goldman.
Not a name that we usually associate with those.
So kind of interesting.
We’ll keep an eye on it.
Maybe if anyone in the chat has any ideas about what’s causing some dark side here in good old Goldman, then keep us informed as we go on out now to Dr.
Vicks slash of V stocks out there.
Mr.
Rhodes, a lot going on in the ball space.
What is catching your eye out there this week, sir?
Oh, and sex.
And I dug through the tape real quick as well.
Looking at just the chart this week for Vic for spot Vicks last two days, we’ve gotten a little bit spike above 20 and then it got shot down like a whack-a-mole, which just makes me wonder what that might be all about if they’re getting kind of expensive out there in the SPX complex or people trying to take advantage of that.
But we have a really interesting, we have, if you look at the, what is this, a 10 minute chart?
Yeah, the 10 minute chart, it looks like if you take the numbers off of it and everything, it looks like we had these many volatility events that lasted about as long as volatility events last in this day and age, about seven and a half minutes.
Just Vicks is, I had the good fortune of going to RMC last week and this week I was participated in a U-Rex event and just a common theme among a lot of people for the very short term is wait and see and we’re just seeing that play out price-wise.
We’re gonna, I don’t know if you spend too much time on social media like I do and you get the ads every once in a while telling you to shut everything down and go away for a while and it’ll make your life better.
I feel like I could go away for two weeks and I really wouldn’t miss anything right now.
I don’t know, two weeks right now, you might miss something interesting coming up at the end of that period.
Let’s say never many days till the election.
Maybe a little bit short of two weeks, I could see your argument out there.
You mentioned your beloved RMC.
Last week you said you needed a week to digest, to get your thoughts together, to put together your full critical analysis of all things RMC.
So I have budgeted for you sir, 41 minutes.
The show is yours sir, I’ve had it.
What are your salient takeaways, the highlights that really resonated for you from RMC this year?
In terms of the VIX, that futures term structure, it still kind of looks like the big dipper, if you will.
You’ve got November trading above everything and then the rest of the curve is completely flat.
VIX is trading at a premium, so we’re in backwardation still, but it’s kind of a weird backwardation.
I feel like post-election we could see an epic fall collapse if the market holds up for the next couple of weeks.
Mr Meatball diving into the VIX futures already.
I like it, getting ahead of me there.
But by the way, our chat is all going on about the fine from Apple and Goldman, but that was yesterday.
I don’t think that would be crushing it today.
That’s not it at all.
This is just some random, there’s something going on there and I don’t know what it is.
But it ain’t good and it’s taken the whole market down with it.
With your goals, Goldman, so goes the rest of the market.
All right, Mr Roadster, now you’ve had time to prepare yourself.
What are your salient takeaways that the folks should know from RMC from this year, sir?
It seems to be an awful lot of interest, still an awful lot of interest in systematic selling of shorter-tated options.
That has not worked for the last three or four months.
I’ve got a study using NASDAQ 100 options that just looks atrocious.
If you had been selling NASDAQ 100 options on a consistent basis, and I know that’s not the show, but that’s the study that I did, you’d have been, as we used to say in the pits, you’d have been carried out long ago.
I think that that is something that’s happening in the United States because there are ETFs that are selling short-dated options.
There’s a lot of systematic exposure to taking the short side on options that expire in just the next few days.
It’s flipped the script and now it seems like long opportunities are the way to go.
I mentioned this one last week, and this is one that really has stuck in the back of my mind.
I didn’t come up with the UREX event, but with RMC, an awful lot of how can we use derivatives to replicate 60/40 performance because 60/40 doesn’t work anymore. 60/40 didn’t work once, or it doesn’t work once about every couple of decades or so.
That’s not the time to abandon it.
I know that the conference is where everybody’s talking about derivative strategies and that’s what the focus is supposed to be on.
For average folks, I think you’re probably better off just going back to the old, the boring old 60/40 approach.
It wasn’t all about it.
It was just the things that stuck out to me.
What stuck out to me was that’s what a lot of people are talking about.
I can see that selling short-dated index options has not worked for the last few months in the S&P, NASDAQ, or Russell 2000, whereas in 2023, selling three, four, and five-day straddles worked beautifully, which makes me think that we’ve got lower premiums this year because of the systematic approaches that feel like they’re trying to take advantage of the persistent overpricing of options.
There’s enough of them in the market that we don’t have a persistent overpricing of short-dated index options in the US anymore.
Intriguing stuff there, sir.
Interesting stuff.
That’s exactly what I expected come out of RMC.
I expected your usual VIX calls versus SPX puts and also the majesty of selling it.
I don’t want to coach.
What was that?
I said not a whole lot of hedging talk either.
Really?
A different show.
Yeah, a whole ton of it.
Then there was one guy who was ripping on the tail hedge people pretty badly.
Let me tell you, there was at least a panel full of Canadian vol funds because if that’s not there, then what are we doing?
I think there was one there.
There we go.
They’ve always had to have something.
There were some French people there.
Yeah, RMC has changed a lot probably.
When was the last time you went, Mark?
I got to say probably like four, maybe five years ago now.
It’s gotten a lot more with all the zero DT and everything going on at VIX.
It’s gotten a lot more academic and a lot more intricate than just the covered call writing, especially since options are now the dog and equities of the tail.
I think there was maybe two discussions on overwriting last year, but most of it was on how to hedge implementation.
There was obviously zero DTE was huge, some things like that.
It was not your father’s arm.
It’s not your father’s RMC anymore.
That’s your grandma’s RMC is talking about selling them out of the money puts all the time out there.
Alec, are you a big vol conference guy or conference guy in general?
Have you ever been to, let’s say, the European flavor of RMC or I know your ex does some cool vol events over there in Europe as well.
Have you ever hit any of those over there, Alec?
I never have.
We’re talking about going actually.
So we’ve been hiding away writing code and doing our own thing, but it’s time to kind of get out there.
So RMC sounds interesting.
I’d love to go.
I know they had it in Iceland recently.
I’m not sure when the next European iteration will be or where it will be, but certainly interesting stuff.
Speaking of interesting stuff, let’s get to the futures curve.
Mark was already talking about futures and Alec also looking at a little bit ahead to the futures curve as well.
Coming into the start of the show, surprise, surprise, that front end of the curve firming up slightly from last week, but again, nothing to write home about.
That no future up a little over half a point as we’re kicking off the show from where it was this time last week.
The December future up about a third of a point.
The rest of the curve slightly firmer, but nothing crazy.
You still can’t sniff a 20 handle.
The closest you get out here looking right now, if you go all the way out to middle of the year, next year, go out to July of next year.
So summertime, not usually known to be a bastion of volatility, but that is where you can find a 19 handle, at least right now on the term structure in 1905, going all the way out to July.
Alec, you kicked us off with a very intriguing VIX futures spread.
We kind of touched on it there, but let’s go a little bit deeper into it now, maybe for some of our folks who are still kind of digesting it.
Hit us with the spread again.
And then what was it that you saw on the term structure that made you made it so attractive to you?
So, uh, so the spread I was recommending was selling the second out future for the deck at the moment and buying the fourth out to the fab.
And what caught my eye was, was I just stacked up the future spreads and pricing monkey and looked at the Z scores and the percentiles and they were, they were the more wingy.
I had looked at a bunch of stuff, but, but those stood out as, as the most interesting thing on my like delve into VIX, VIX and VIX options.
Uh, and yeah, so, so once I found something interesting, I was like, okay, what’s, what’s the trade and can I, can I prove it out with a back test?
So the trades are steep now and it’s kind of a variant on the selling the selling the second or first fixed future, but it, it, it, it performs really well.
I mean, it’s like, I might send you, I might send you the back test charts.
You can put on your social if you want, but, uh, it’s, it’s like, it’s, it’s down days are rare and it makes money.
It’s made money every single year back to 2008.
Admittedly, 2008, it did quite badly.
I think a lot of things, a lot of things did poorly in 2008, I think.
So I, yeah, yeah, yeah.
It’s tough to find a trade that does well and does well in 2008.
Yeah.
So do you like this setup just for right now?
Or is this a structure you’re going to repeat selling effectively the two months out and then going against the four months out?
Is that a structure you like rolling throughout the year?
Is it kind of just right now?
Well, I’ve put a signal on it.
So I was saying do it whenever that spread is less than 0.3.
So it’s 0.25 at the moment.
So if you do, you have to, you have to do it when it’s flat.
If you don’t want to do it all the time, because you don’t make nearly as much money that way.
And I mean, admittedly some, I think it’s 2013 and it only never got that flat.
So you didn’t trade that year, but most of the time you’re in this trade, uh, 25% of the time, maybe something like that. 25% of the time.
That’s, that’s a, that’s a pretty active, uh, Vic spread all things considered.
Interesting stuff listeners.
So we’re always talking about the options.
We don’t talk spreading the futures as often, at least on this show, starting to pop up a bit on the futures rundown.
So intriguing.
You like that setup listeners hit us up.
Let us know out there.
If you are intrigued, Mr.
Rhodes, you like that setup.
Are you down with that?
And what else is catching your eye out there in the ball surface this week?
Well I’m down with that.
I was actually, I got my thunder stolen a bit.
I don’t like that.
Uh, I, cause I was actually looking at December at a 20 cent discount to January and thinking that that’s too narrow and that, uh, that will likely widen out a bit, especially if we get a resolution to the election for December expiration.
Uh, everybody probably bracing themselves into 2025.
Uh, I kind of like February and in fact, February I’ve got it quoted basically in line, if not a little bit lower than January right now.
Uh, and I think that, that, I think that’s an improvement on the idea that I was going to throw out there.
Uh, because if we, uh, you know, I feel like the February probably will hold up a little bit better and probably be higher than January.
If we, if we get through the election somewhat unscathed.
So now, now you’ve got me doing extra work.
That’s the fun of the show and you’re right.
February, February pretty much in line with Jan slightly cheaper actually.
So that does make it more interesting.
I’m Mr.
Meatball.
Let’s see if we can go three for three.
Are you down for that?
A little bit of D-S-Feb spread in the VIX term structure right now, sir.
Uh, it makes some sense to me.
I don’t hate it.
Um, there’s, I mean the whole curve looks like, it looks like it’s, it’s primed for a future spread the way it’s set up.
I mean, it is, I, it is about as flat as it ever gets.
The front end of the curve is kind of overbid the back end of the curve.
You can almost argue it looks a little cheap, uh, relative to historic trends.
So yeah, I like the idea.
Yeah.
And December, you’re right, certainly does stick out as well that we know traditionally that is a seasonal wasteland for vol.
So the fact that it is as close as it is to everything else around it is, is potentially intriguing and worthy of note.
You know what else is intriguing and worthy of note?
It’s a little bit of international vol.
So let’s head out there next.
It’s time to explore what’s happening in the volatility market beyond our shores.
It’s time for the international volatility review.
The international volatility segment is brought to you by EuroX, home of Euro Stocks, V Stocks, DAX and the German government bond-based Eurobund, Eurobabel, EuroShots derivatives.
EuroX is the leading European derivatives exchange.
Learn more about trading V Stocks futures and options, the European volatility benchmark at www.yorex.com/vstocks.
All right, listeners, let’s go a little bit beyond our shores now.
See what’s popping off in the international vol markets, particularly setting down over there in the Eurozone, see what’s popping off from a V Stocks perspective.
You see coming into you today, V Stocks looking a little bit firmer than it was this time last week.
So we’ve got some intriguing trends going on between Vix Cash and V Stocks, as they are wont to do, but obviously widening out a little bit.
Now, not quite apples to apples, of course, because Vix Cash still trading.
V Stocks is now closed.
I think Russell has talked before about maybe taking a snapshot from that closing time with Vix Cash versus V Stocks to get a more salient comparison of their respective levels.
But still coming in right now, V Stocks at about an 18.91, up about one and two thirds points this week.
So certainly firming up and firming up comparatively even more than Vix Cash, which is kind of interesting out there, which is why we run the numbers at the end of the day.
Remember our range on V Stocks this year, the high again, you can probably guess it, August 5th, 31.16 to the upside, the low.
That’s why I was just talking about December looking a little bit aberrant to me on that Vix Futures curve listeners, because 52 week low for V Stocks, 12.12 hit.
Guess when?
Smack dab in the middle of December last year, December 15th.
We kissed it again back in March, but that was really the low for the year, December.
So intriguing stuff hanging out close to a 19, obviously closer to the bottom of that range than the top.
Mr.
Rhodes, intriguing stuff.
V Stocks firming up a wee bit this week, sir.
What’s catching her eye out there?
So just a couple of trades.
Sorry, I’m tripping around here.
We did talk on the UREX program yesterday.
We talked about that big deese, one by two with the 17 puts and the 15 puts.
They continue to eke profits out of that trade.
They got out of another thousand on Wednesday.
Another trade I kind of like, somebody sold 3,000 of the November 24th, 20 calls on Monday for a buck 20.
It says tied to futures.
I think they paid a buck 80 for the futures.
I think they paid 18 for the futures.
The futures got in itself up to $18.50, so they made $0.50 off that.
They could get out of the short call with a $0.20 loss right now, so they’re looking kind of okay with that trade.
Again, the future was at a lower level when they put that one on.
I generally don’t like to think about a short call as being hedged, but it would offset some of the losses if November V stock starts to come under a bit of pressure.
Somebody’s taken a flyer trade here.
They bought 5,000 of the November 30 calls and bought a bunch of those on Monday, probably hoping for some sort of volatility event over the next couple of weeks.
Did you say 30?
I’m sorry.
I know I cut you off.
Did you say 30?
The 30 calls.
Yeah, they bought the 30 calls.
Wow.
I’m not giving those for it.
I’m sorry.
I just lost my page that had it on there.
That’s a moving around too quickly, Bark.
That’d be quite the run for V stocks.
30?
Wow.
Okay. 45 cents.
Wow.
They paid 45 cents for them.
They’re not giving those away.
Didn’t say I liked it, but that’s what they did.
I can see if they were like a nickel flyer, maybe a dime.
Okay, sure. 45 cents.
Wow.
That’s a good answer.
I didn’t say I liked it.
I just thought it was the biggest trade of the week.
You said you loved it as I recall, sir.
And then like we said, the term structure is basically looking a bit like ours.
December is at more of a discount right now.
If you really want to get cute, you could buy the V stocks.
I’m sorry, buy the decent short February against and do it like a box spread against VIX.
Now you’re getting super cute, sir.
I know.
If we sell December VIX, buy February VIX, but then we buy December V stocks and sell February V stocks because that spreads 80 cents.
We got a very funky and intricate spread trade there.
You don’t even need to get that cute.
If you want to buy ball in V stocks right now upside, whatever you want to buy, you know, you can get a 45 cent discount by selling those stupid 30s against it.
So there you go.
Leg into any vertical you want. 45 cent discount courtesy of whoever’s buying those 30s for 45 cents listeners.
So there you go. 20, 30, whatever that is, you’re getting it for cheaper because of that, that elevated upside ball.
So yeah, it might be a good vertical shopping out there.
And or you can go the Russell box way, whatever, whatever floats your boat.
Anything else, Mr.
Rhodes?
No, that’s it.
I know we got a lot of things to cover.
All right, then let’s keep on rolling.
You like those listeners?
We should make a little flash pull.
Russell’s funky four way box or a nice discounted vertical and V stocks.
Which way are you going to go?
Listen, I’m curious as we keep on rolling out there to the land of all things VIX options right now and you know what?
Not a heck of a lot light in the world on fire in VIX.
In fact, before the show, we had to make sure that that the system was working because it was only showing 85,000 contracts on the tape for VIX.
I haven’t seen it that low and not even in the dog days of summer.
This year it was blowing the doors off in August.
So can’t remember the last time we were at 85,000 coming into the start of the show.
Thankfully, things have firmed up a little bit out there right now.
We are up to a whopping 195,000 contracts on the tape.
So yeah, VIX doing a whole heck of a lot of nothing today.
Listeners, that probably is that’ll put this lower ADV that I’m going to tell you about now probably in a little bit more perspective.
The ADV continues to come down as it seems like is happening across the board in the vol complex.
ADV is coming in every which is interesting.
You never notice looking at that one data point that we are heading into potentially a big vol event, aka the election.
Usually it’s the other way.
People starting to load up, but we are in this near dated zone now, this near dated world.
So everyone might be waiting till the day itself to put on their trade.
So probably eaten into the ADV’s as a result. 770 is the ADV in VIX land.
That’s down another 32,000 from this time last week.
And if we get more days like today, it’s going to keep coming in.
We’ll be at half a million contracts a day pretty soon.
In terms of the top 10 listeners, how are we looking out here in VIX land right now?
Well, we’re hanging out six to four calls over put.
So more puts fighting their way into the top 10, which makes some sense.
We did kiss 20 couple of times this week.
Couldn’t really maintain it, but we did kiss it a couple of times.
So whenever we start threatening that level, we start to see a few more puts become a little bit more enticing to the folks out there.
And that seems to be the case this week.
Cost you 196,000 contracts to break into the top 10.
That’s about what you’d expect in VIX land out there.
That gets you to our first of four puts.
Listeners, the Nove 14 puts.
You like those?
Those are Huckleberry listeners.
Number nine, 201,000 of the Nove 16 puts.
Here we go.
Putpalooza.
Number eight, 203,000 of the Jan 42 half.
So you want a little bit of upside?
There you go.
Number seven, right back to the puts, 229,000 of the meatballs favorite.
I think he said this is his trade of the year.
If I quote him correctly, the Nove 15 puts, they were around 30 cents last week.
I think they’re around somewhere around 25 cents today.
So if you like them, they’re close to that same level.
Number six, 231,000 of the Nove 40s.
Number five, 239,000 of the Nove doubles.
So if the 40s not doing it for you, allow me to present the 55s.
Number four, 248,000 of the Nove 19s.
One nines.
Number three, our fourth and final put in our top 10 this week, 288,000 of the DS 13 puts.
And I’d say 13.
That’s pretty far out there.
But on the flip side, it is December.
Remember I was just saying about December earlier.
So the 13 put, I’d say it has the best chance in the year in December.
So obviously someone looking for a little bit of that seasonality action.
Number two, 303,000 of the Nove 35s.
And the big dog out there right now, I guess given all these strikes, a fairly reasonable call strike 310,000 of the Nove 20s.
Which of those do you like?
Listen, which ones float your boat as we head on into a little bit of Russell’s Weekly Rundown.
Now Russell’s Weekly Rundown.
Now Russell’s Weekly Rundown.
So nice.
We have to play it twice.
Mr.
Rhodes, sir, what you got for us on the Weekly Vicks options, Frank?
I got a few fun things.
So on to not, and there wasn’t a whole lot this week.
I know I say that very often, but you know, this whole sit on their hands, wait and see thing does seem to be kind of a consensus right now across, across, you know, global Wall Street as they call it at Bloomberg.
On Tuesday with Vicks at 1839, somebody sold the October 30th 20 calls for 58 cents.
They bought the 25 calls for 17 cents.
They took it a credit of 41 cents with a risk there of 459.
This is going to go down as the trade that I’m not real wild about, just because of the dollar risk reward.
And you know, I know that there’s no, that we don’t have any big potential events.
We’ve got non firm payrolls that comes out after that.
We’ve got an election and an FOMC announcement the week after that.
So I understand we’re waiting to see, but I would be very uncomfortable just in this day and age waking up and China says they’re not going to, you know, that they’re going to sell all of our bonds or another country defaults on, on their debt or something gets, some situation gets escalated in the world.
So I’m not real wild about the dollar risk reward on that.
When I do think we could go above 25 quite easily and it doesn’t take a whole lot to get us there.
On Tuesday as well, late in the day somebody bought 195 of the October 23rd 10 strike calls and they paid 983 for those.
And you’re like, they expire the next day, et cetera.
Well, 195 was the open interest.
So that was the exit.
And it looks like back on October 15th, they shorted those calls at 1120.
And when they shorted those calls, it looks like they were able to do it with about a buck of time value or so.
So people, they were like, why would they short the calls when they could just short the futures like that?
Well, they did get some time value when they put that on on the short side and probably contributed an awful lot to the profits on that trade.
And here’s a trade that I do kind of like.
I’m going to keep, maybe I should be called the calendar king or something like that because I’m always talking on here about how the three day weekend affects us or, you know, when a reaction is going to be to different things.
And just remember that the weekly VIX options and futures that expire the week of the election expire on the market open the day after the election has been completed, not after we get results or anything like that.
So be very cautious doing anything with November 6th VIX options and holding them into expiration.
Every year I would VIX it 1942 on Wednesday when it was doing one of those mini spikes we got this week.
They bought a little over 2000 of the number 13th 20 calls and they paid a buck 70 for it.
And I know that that sounds kind of expensive, but I mean, that that those are the kind of premiums that you’re probably going to have to pay if you want to get some leveraged long ball exposure into that first full week in November.
A little bit juicy out there, but you’re right about the expiration.
That’s why in our question of the week this week when we gave you a VIX straddle, we had it expire on the 13th one week later.
I’ll give you a little bit extra juice.
Nobody wants it to go away the morning immediately after.
You want to have a little bit more time for things to play out, I would think out there.
So we took that into consideration for you folks as well listeners.
Is there a lot of VIX paper to consider this week?
The answer is not really a ton.
We’ll kind of burn through this here today.
Like we said, not much 195,000 contracts on the tape today.
The big dog today, such as it is 20,005 of the Nove 14 half puts, followed by about 15,000 of the Nove 15 puts.
It’s just a put Palooza 16 puts, 17 puts and 13 puts bottoming out at about 10,000 there listeners yesterday. 528,000 contracts on the tape.
So also not really a banger, even though the big trade was more active. 82,000 of the Nove 20s versus 46,000 of number two of the Nove 19 puts, 43,000 of the Nove 19.
It’s synthetic against upside calls.
We’ve been seeing this for a while.
They did it for size yesterday, but we didn’t do that.
You’re talking 160, 170,000 contracts in that one trade.
Thought that would have been an even more anemic day out there.
So not much going on yesterday.
Wednesday about the same volume level 468 on the tape.
The big dog, such as it was 42,000 of the Nove 15 puts.
So those coming on online again, folks, like in the 15 puts perhaps 27,000 of number two of the 19 puts.
Number three, if you don’t like Nove, how about the Deez 15 puts?
24,000 of those bad boys.
Number four, Jan, man, 15 puts a plenty on Wednesday.
Jan 15 puts number four, 20,000 of those reached another flash pull.
Which of those do you prefer?
Nove, Deezer, Jan 15 puts.
And number five, 19,000 of the Nove 16 puts.
Tuesday, 795 on the tape.
So looks like our banger day of the week, at least so far, such as it is.
Nothing even close to a million this week.
The big dog, man, 275,000.
These are our old friend, the Deez 13 puts.
We were just talking about these.
That’s where they all came from.
They were all opening.
It was all on Tuesday, listeners.
Without that, it was a pretty light day.
It was back around half a million contracts.
So wow, somebody really liking those Deez 13 puts on the 22nd.
Let’s look really quickly, listeners, to see.
Let’s see what they traded them for. 15 cents in massive blocks, 85,000 and 74,000, and then 55,000, excuse me.
You like those?
Deez 13 puts for 15 cents.
Not the worst flyer I’ve heard.
It’s pretty far out there, obviously.
But again, it is December.
So if you’re talking March 13 puts, I would say, yeah, maybe not my favorite.
But Deez, I think you got a good chance there.
And then Monday 476 on the tape. 40,000 exactly the big dog on Monday for the April 42 has followed by 40,000 as well, the no 40s and 38,000 of the no 25.
So it looks like some no vertical action maybe against those Aprils.
I’ll have to go look and see.
So an intriguing week out there.
Alec, I know you’re talking about looking at the VIX futures.
You spend any time over there at Pricing Monkey looking at the VIX options, sir?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
We have a look.
I tried to play around with a few options strategies, but I wasn’t sure I had anything that juicy.
Nothing as juicy as the VIX futures spread, sir.
The VIX futures spread a little much better.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I mean, when I run the back test, it sort of says stuff that’s quite obvious really.
Like if VIX bikes up above– I did one where it fixed bikes above 25, sell the hell out of it.
And especially if it’s up there and has dipped for one day, it’s like it’s definitely going down to sell.
So it’s kind of strategies that you can prove out the active event-based strategies.
But they seemed a bit obvious to me.
I was like, and everyone’s going to be like, yeah, he’s just saying some obvious stuff.
Just buying an out of the money VIX call, rinse and repeat, that kind of thing.
Yeah.
You can’t– you got to do what the back test tell you at the end of the day.
Mr.
Meatball, sir, kind of a quiet week on the VIX options front.
But A, what caught your eye out there?
And B, I know you like yourself a good out of the money put.
Are you a fan of these Deese 13 puts going up over a quarter of a million times this week for $0.15, sir?
Yeah, I noticed those going up.
They built a pretty sizable position there.
It is– it looks like a post-election play.
What was interesting is at the same time those puts were going up within minutes for December in SPY– I know we never talk spiders here– but in SPY, a trader was buying the $6.10 calls and the $6.15 calls in December.
Check it out. 90,000 of the December $6.10 calls open and 115,000 of the December $6.15 calls open, those were purchases.
So somebody is very, very bullish into Christmas.
Yeah, putting it on two ways.
The old Texas hedge.
There you go.
Buy upside and then just for a kicker, for a little extra fun, also some Vicks downside.
By the way, Mr.
Meatball, our chat is intrigued by your hypothesis that whenever Nvidia gets above Apple, it sells off hard.
So they’re going to do some data mining.
And if you’re lying, they’re going to put it to you next week.
That’s what they’re saying.
I mean, it’s happened once.
So it’s not like there’s that many data points for them to dig into.
Well, there we go.
We have a pattern, a pattern of one.
But our chat is intrigued by that nonetheless.
So so there you go.
They keep me on your toes, making sure you’re not you’re not talking out of school out here.
Listeners, we’re already coming up against it, having a fun run here on the show this week.
Let’s keep rolling here out to the realm of all things, vol, ETPs.
Let’s start with good old S Vicks was at a 2460 when we kicked off the show that puts it down about exactly one point from where it was this time a week ago, now down to about 2420.
So that puts it down about one point four points.
So as Vicks continuing to erode, so it looks like vol getting a little bit spicier as the day has gone on.
And that is the case.
Indeed.
Interesting.
So as Vicks continuing to be the disappointing player that it has been on the options front for a while, a whopping 2800 contracts on the tape today.
So the vol erosion we’ve been talking about in the in the vol space, even more pronounced in S Vicks, their ADV is down to 5500.
It’s not another 300 this week.
It’s dropping nearly 10 percent a week.
So at this point, it’s not looking good for the S Vicks options.
Mr.
Road, it’s anything catching your eye in the world of S Vicks, sir.
Well, and I know we’re up against it.
So I’m going to I’m going to jump a little on you.
S Vicks, I still have a full position.
I sold some 25 calls a couple of days ago, so I’m kind of OK with what it’s doing.
But look at the way the curve’s acting right now.
I’m you know, the UVI X, the UVI X thing that I talk about that I always do on Fridays, I’m doubling down on that one this weekend.
This market doesn’t feel good.
It’s all going down.
That sell off was weird.
And the way the market looks.
I’m doing twice what I normally do in Uvicks.
The bond market looks funky.
And but the 10 year yield has been it’s been grinding higher.
And that in that in eventually it’s going to reach a point where the stock traders start to pay attention.
So I would be worried about that as well.
So Mark, Mark, I’m sorry for for going off on that tangent there.
I know you do what you got to do.
But but it’s just the way the mark’s feeling right now.
It’s just not feeling good.
Just a meatball you are out there running an S Vicks product out there.
A challenging period for it.
It has been it has been nothing but not fun.
Yeah.
Overlapping.
I know it’ll get better.
Ever since you launched this product, I’ve never been less interested in S Vicks.
It’s just I know.
But I’m hedging it.
I am currently hedged.
I will say that I was all in on S Vicks.
I was trading it like I was the one guy clearly trading the options out there.
And then the last how long has it been since you had this product about a month and a half, maybe two months?
Yeah.
Yeah.
I haven’t really touched it since then.
It’s crazy.
It’s crazy.
I’m the reason.
It’s been all over the place.
It just the whole lead up to the election is really wreaked a bit of havoc with the goofy term structure on all the all these ETPs.
And the on the opposite side of it, this little weakened anomaly, I found it’s worked better than it’s ever worked.
And my assumption is after we get past the election and we’ve got a normal term structure, et cetera, that it’s you know, it’s going to it’s going to be a bleeding strategy for a while.
But it’s just very difficult with anything, trying to use anything that’s happened in the past to predict what’s going on in the volatility markets because we sort of have twenty twenty as a template, but not really.
You know, we just don’t we’re really in some uncharted territory with respect to analysis.
Yeah.
Vols was just so already high in twenty twenty that it’s throwing things off.
Yeah, I’m very curious to see how things play out over the next in the next two weeks.
You know, thankfully we get to stop talking about this stuff in seven to eight, hopefully eight trading.
Hopefully, hopefully eight trading days as well.
Since they were just on the show with us last week, let’s give them a little bit of love.
The folks over there at simplex with their S vol product.
So if you’re not feeling as VIX, maybe S vol is your huckleberry listeners.
Twenty one and a half.
So not that dissimilar from a price level as well from S VIX.
That puts it down about a third of a point from where it was this time last week in terms of volume.
Now, obviously, we were just lamenting as VIX being kind of like obviously S vol is not going to be there right now either.
It’s kind of just getting its sea legs out from under it.
Three hundred and five contracts a day.
So not exactly lighting the world on fire on the options front.
So if options are your bag, maybe you want to wait a little bit.
But hundred contracts today.
So it’s, I guess, respectable underlying, though, might be more of a game for you.
Oh, it’s going ex-div out here as well.
So this is why it’s why it’s lighting the world on fire.
But Russell, we just had these guys on last week.
Have you had a chance to really look at the S vol product at all?
Maybe comparing contrast to aspects.
Sorry, I had a I had a pretty hectic week in the you know, after you go to a conference, when you come back, it’s always you always come back to an awful lot of work.
And it’s so I just haven’t had a chance to get to that.
It’s on my list of things to look at this weekend, because I really do want to.
And that’s something I’ve been meaning to do for months, you know, and just never get around to is the simplified stuff.
Yeah, it’s intriguing.
I’ll probably have to have them on the on the show again.
One of these days we can kind of follow up on all of that madness out there.
Speaking of madness, we are really quickly.
Let’s get a couple others.
You’ve almost five and a half now.
Five forty five was at five and a quarter when we kicked off the show.
So obviously, vol firming up as we’re coming into the end of the show up nearly half a point this week.
About twenty thousand contracts on the tape.
The 80, actually twenty eight thousand now.
So getting a little bit spicier out there.
The 80 is thirty one thousand.
That’s actually up two thousand.
So you’ve managing to buck the trend out there.
Maybe everyone’s diving in on Russell’s trade and trying to do some options trades against it.
So you’ve looking a little spicy.
The big dog out there at now eighty nine hundred of the five calls expiring today.
So those are looking much better now than they were at the start of the show.
So Bally, who to you out there who loaded up on those five calls, nearly nine thousand of those bad boys as we keep on rolling.
It’s time to play that game.
Listen, as it is time for the crystal ball.
It’s time to appear into the future and reveal what the volatility gods hold in store.
It’s time to look into the crystal ball.
All right, everybody, welcome to the crystal ball.
The portion of the show we attempt to wrestle with the vol gods for the coming week.
Alec, I hope they prepared you for it, sir.
Because it’s definitely the most difficult, the most dangerous, some might say the most damning portion of the show.
And coming into the end of the show, like I said, we are looking spicier out there on the vol front.
Vicks kiss in twenty nineteen ninety one.
An excellent year, threatening the twenty handle out there.
And we already mentioned V stocks going out at eighteen ninety one.
So interesting exact one point disparity right now between V stocks and the vol front.
So this week, what do we have?
I was at eighteen double on Vicks, sixteen seventy six on V stocks and no joy for me.
Russell, eighteen eighteen on Vicks, seventeen seventeen for V stocks.
No joy for him either.
Mr.
Meatball doing his palindromic dark side at fifteen fifty one.
Sixteen sixty one for V stocks.
No joy there.
Then we had Mike from simplify on last week.
He just went straight Vicks sixteen half.
So a lot of us were feeling a little bit of a loss.
I was kind of the rear up guy on the totem pole last week, but clearly not enough because Vicks feeling its oats.
If we had hung out where we were at the start of the show, I’d probably be looking a little better if we had done the typical trajectory of drifting lower and vol heading into the weekend during the show.
I would have been right at a bullseye.
But alas, listeners, whatever is fuel in this little sell off, whether it’s the Goldman rip down, whether it’s something else, something is rippling through the market right now and causes a lot of damage.
Something else, something is rippling through the market right now and causing some vol as a result.
So all of that a long way around to saying no winners this week, which means Alec, you get the dubious honor of going first.
Sir, what do you feel for this time next week in Vicks cash, sir?
I’m feeling it’s going to be a little lower, but not hugely.
I’m going to go eighteen point seven.
Eighteen seventy.
All right.
I can get behind that.
My prognostication from last week was not that far away.
Mr.
Meatball, you were the next far this way.
So you get to go next.
So what are you feeling for Vicks and or V stocks next week, sir?
You know, let’s go.
Let’s go with let’s go with Russell’s fear.
All right.
I’m going to go with 20.
I’m going to go with the super palindrome.
Twenty two twenty two for Vicks and for V stocks.
I’m going to go with 19.
I’m going to go with twenty one twelve.
Twenty one twelve.
An excellent album.
And is it a good V stocks prediction?
I guess we shall find out listeners and Mr.
Rhodes.
The second to last word is yours as the next closest.
But what are you feeling, sir?
Next week?
I was going to go twenty two fifty on Vicks, but I’m not doing that now.
I’m going to go twenty fifty on Vicks.
You could do it.
And V stocks.
I’m going to do nineteen seventy five.
Why not?
You still have over a quarter of a point above him if you wanted to do that.
No, I’m not going to do that for him.
And what do you say V stocks?
Nineteen sixty five.
Seventy five.
Nineteen seventy five.
An excellent year.
An excellent year if I do say so myself.
All right.
It comes to me now, listeners.
I was feeling more of all a little bit spicier, clearly not spicy enough.
Meatball going super spicy.
Even Mr.
Rhodes going a little bit spicier.
Even Alec going a little bit spicier than where we are right now.
So it doesn’t give me a lot of room.
I was feeling more upside as well, just given what we’re seeing right now.
I’m going to have to carve out my own path here, listeners, because not a lot of landing points here.
That’s the danger of going last.
That’s what I get for being the closest this week.
All right.
So I’m going to save myself what what Russell is saying for V stocks.
I’m actually going to save for Vicks.
I like that.
Nineteen seventy five.
And then V stocks.
This one.
I’m still dialing in my model.
Listen, I’m going to say twenty thirty three for V stocks.
So firm enough out there.
All right.
That music means we have come to the end of another journey through the world of all things volatility.
But before we go, let’s go around the horn.
Alec, we will start with you, sir.
If folks are intrigued, they want to check out more about all things pricing monkey.
Where should they go?
What should they do?
Yeah, just head over to pricing monkey dot com.
You can get a bit more info and you can request a free trial and a demo as well.
Pricing monkey dot com.
Listen, is the place to go to kick the tires and light the fires and Mr.
Meatball, if they want to kick the tires and light the fires on maybe an S Vicks product or maybe looking at some spy versus Vicks or anything else, where should they go?
What should they do?
Yeah, just head on over.
Follow me on Twitter at Option Pit and head over to option Pit dot com.
Check out everything we’ve got there.
You’ll be very happy.
Very happy indeed.
Mr.
Rhodes, if you want to be happy, maybe with a little bit of sub stack action or perhaps a whole day, isn’t your whole day or your whole day just happened.
How did it go?
My whole day just went happened.
It went very well.
You know, probably the biggest takeaway from the U.S. event was what a lot of people are saying, which is we expect volatility to start working its way lower once we get this election thing past us.
But one panelist did say if everybody’s thinking that I wonder if I should be long.
Don’t like that guy.
The contrarian.
I like it out there.
I was thinking for some reason it was next month, but it happened yesterday.
So I’m going to something called Quant Mines International next month in London.
That’s the end of my fall tour and the fall tour.
So folks are intrigued.
Maybe they missed the stream yesterday.
They want to get Russell Day again.
Is there an archive available?
There is an archive available if you do a Focus Day 2024, your ex, if you if you Google that, wait until early next week.
I’ll probably bring it up next week because I don’t think they have it up quite yet.
Oh, so the archive not available listeners, but wait till next week.
Not yet, but it will be.
So if you missed Russell Day in all of its glory of one hour a week on this show is not enough for you.
You need a full day.
Then Russell Day, all things V stocks.
You can find it over there at your ex dot com.
Once once it is live, we will also we’ll send a link to it.
We will also put out a link to the audio.
So if you want to hear just the audio version, which we know a thing or two about, we will put that out there as well.
So that way you will never miss a smidgen of Russell goodness here when it comes to talking V stocks.
And of course, if you want to talk V stocks for yourselves, head on over to your ex dot com.
You are ex dot com.
And while you’re surfing online, make sure you check out our friends over there at public public dot com slash VV.
It’s the easiest you are all on the planet.
Public dot com slash VV.
All you have to do is go there.
That lets them know that, hey, you’re coming from volvues.
And that helps to support the show going forward.
And of course, they want you folks.
They want you hardcore bleeding edge.
Volvues, the VIX traders, the bleeding edge of the options market.
They think they’re ready for you.
Maybe head on over there.
Kick the tires.
Maybe they’re not ready.
Maybe you tell them what they can do to improve.
Guess what?
It’s a brand new platform.
They want to hear from our listeners.
That’s why they’re doing this.
So let them know what you’re looking for.
Chances are they’ll add it.
It’s really cool.
Public dot com slash VV.
And while you’re there, you get a rebate to trade options.
It’s a win-win and it helps to support a show that’s been coming at you for over a decade.
Everybody wins at the end of the day unless you want more show.
Then you lose because the show is over.
If you want more on the on the pro side, we already did oddities this week, listener.
So that’ll be hitting actually that already hit the pro podcast feed.
You can check that out for yourselves.
The options.
Insider dot com slash pro is the place to go to learn more.
Other than that, we are out of here for this week.
Listeners have a great weekend.
Maybe you take a look.
I’m going to be roped into the chain gang in a little bit, but maybe if I have time on the sidelines, maybe I will throw in a closing bid for a little bit of Russell’s Russell’s juicy UVic’s weekend goodness.
And we’ll all see how that works out this week.
Listen, I agree.
It does feel like one of those weekendy quote type weeks out there.
So maybe maybe keep an eye on maybe keep your powder dry out there this weekend as well.
See you back here on Monday for the option block all the way through to next Friday.
Another episode of volatility views.
Stay safe out there, everybody.
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Options are not suitable for all investors and carry significant risk. Option investors can rapidly lose the value of their investment in a short period of time and incur permanent loss by expiration date. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk. There are additional costs associated with option strategies that call for multiple purchases and sales of options, such as spreads, straddles, among others, as compared with a single option trade.
Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must read and understand the “Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”, also known as the options disclosure document (ODD) which can be found at: www.theocc.com/company-information/documents-and-archives/options-disclosure-document
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Options can be risky and are not suitable for all investors. See the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options to learn more.
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