The Winners of the Great Crystal Ball Contest
Listen to Volatility Views 331: The Winners of the Great Crystal Ball Contest
Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective.
- VIX Cash – 19.4, almost unchanged from two week ago
- VIX – 94, 12-points lower than last show
- VIX Options – ADV: 546k, Total 6.77m (4.81m Calls, 1.95m Puts)
- VXX – 35.5, 1-point lower than last show
- Crypto crushed below $4k recently
Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week:
AAPL continues to take a beating – recently dropping below $175. We know many of you LOVE to trade $AAPL and this selloff creates opportunities. Looking ahead to Jan 2019 expiration- which trade would you prefer to make in $AAPL right now?
- Sell Jan 150P for $1.65
- Buy Jan 150P for $1.65
- Sell Jan 200C for $1
- Buy Jan 200C for $1
Listener questions and comments
- Comment from Pete Yarbro – I’d sell this strangle.
- Question from EELC5 – What’s the lowest volatility can get in the SPX?
- Comment from Nilai – I like Mark’s idea for an erosionator in VXX. Would be something interesting to watch. Kind of like a smog report or tide report but for VXX.
Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication.
Two weeks ago we asked people to guess where VIX would close on 11/30 by the end of the show. Answer: 18.80
- Mark L.: 18.15
- Mark S.: 15.25
- R Ray: 19.70 -.9
- Richie Rich: 17.1
- Alex P: 17.50
- William Valentine: I’m going with 16-ish. (I’ll define the margin of -ish next Friday).
- Ophir Gottlieb: 19.23 – Vol is too cheap for a number of names and buying one-two day straddles is printing money. This is one of the best trading environments for vol in 5 years.
- MRTOPTICK: 19.87
- Neil Wales: 18.1 – .7
- ConTango: 15.09
- Andrew Giovinazzi: 15.91
- David Lincoln: 16.50
- Jim Carroll: I’ll take 14.90 cuz bears will take a break before they try again…Just wanted to take the under! Come at me!!!!!!
- Matt Thompson, CFA: 18.71056
- Cmcapone: Kind of late, but for the 11/30 prognostication contest, put me down for 18.80.
This week:
- Mark L. – 17.15
- Mark S. – 16.35