Welcome to our inaugural episode of The Futures Rundown brought to you by T4 Futures and Options.
With your host Mark Longo and guest Carley Garner.
The Trading Pit
- Looking at what is trading in the futures markets
Futures Free For All
- Is there a shift in sentiment from a tech heavy atmosphere to a hard asset one?
- Why aren’t the equity markets pricing in more geopolitical risk right now?
TRANSCRIPT
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The futures markets can be downright scary.
Limit up, limit down.
What the heck is our Bob anyway?
Are they going to dump a truckload of soybeans on your front lawn if you click the wrong button?
Come to think of it, maybe you should just stick to your comfort zone.
Or you can break out of it with the futures rundown.
The futures rundown is here to help you make sense of these scary markets.
We’ll analyze all the top futures trading activity, explore the ins and outs of your favorite products, explain exactly how futures work, and hear from leading experts in the futures markets.
We’ll even tackle all of your wildest futures trading questions.
If it involves futures, then you’ll hear about it on the futures rundown.
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And now it’s time to break into the futures markets.
It’s time for the futures rundown.
Alright everybody, that music means we are back once again.
It is Wednesday.
It is time to roll out the latest edition to the network.
Yes, of course, the futures rundown.
My name is of course Mark Longo from the optionsinsider.com as well as from the network that is ever expanding, including this most recent edition.
Indeed, the old futures rundown.
Glad to see so many of you folks are enjoying it.
A couple of things you remind you of at the top of the show.
First off, you like what you hear.
Throw a like, a star, or comment.
We have a lot of ratings on all of our other shows.
This one’s a new one.
So they count even more than usual out there.
So a lot of you folks like it.
Throw some likes, some stars, some comments.
It helps new people continue to discover the show.
And of course, if you want to discover more, you want to go above and beyond.
You want to get some pro goodness in your life, two additional exclusive shows, live streams, giveaways, early access to fun, exclusives, all sorts of good stuff.
The optionsinsider.com/pro is the place to go to learn more.
As we learn who’s joining us on the old futures rundown today, please welcome back on our old pal, Ms.
Carly Garner.
Carly, welcome back to the futures rundown.
Thanks, Mark.
Good to be here as usual.
All right, then without further ado, let’s get right on into the trading pit.
It’s time to break down all the action that’s lighting up the futures markets this week.
What’s limit up and what’s crashing and burning?
Let’s find out.
It’s time to enter the trading pit.
All right, everyone.
Welcome to the trading pit, the portion of the show we break down.
What’s lighting up our tapes out there in the futures market today?
Before we get to that really quickly, Carly, we just did a few weeks ago our big election night spectacular.
We had a lot of great guests joining us on that.
It was roughly four plus hours.
I had no voice by the end of it, but we had a good time.
A lot of great perspectives.
You haven’t joined us, though, on the network since October 23rd.
So we missed you on the election night spectacular.
I believe you were guarding the books with a shotgun over there at to Carly, where all this was popping off in the after hours.
So let’s start there.
It’s been a while, the tumultuous couple of weeks since then.
What’s been catching your eye out there in these wild post-election markets, Carly?
Sure.
So obviously elections are always interesting.
They always bring volatility pre-election and usually volatility dies post-election.
That’s mostly what we’ve seen.
So nothing too shocking.
What’s different this time around is I think the markets, for whatever reason, had already priced in the results of the election before they actually were a reality.
Like we saw, the stock market starts rallying.
Bond markets sell off about two or three weeks, maybe even four weeks prior to the election.
My personal opinion is the market priced in all of the good news regarding growth and all the potential inflation news due to tariffs and all of those types of stories that have been floating around the internet.
I think those are probably baked in the cake mostly.
And as we get into early next year, I think we start reversing some of those as my best guess.
Now, seasonality suggests that we probably extend some of these.
So stronger dollars, stronger equities generally carry through to the end of the year.
But as come 2025, I think we’re going to see some different stories.
Not the first person to come on here just in the past week and express some strong bearish sentiment out there, Carly.
So yeah, it’s interesting times once again.
Speaking of interesting times, one of the big talking points we had on the election, nice spectacular, was the rise of these prediction binary, call them what you will, markets.
At the end of the day, they really are just binary options markets.
Everyone seemed to be entranced by them.
They started really moving heavily towards Trump very early on, right around about a month before the election, right around October 8th or so in that timeframe.
It seemed like depending on the marketplace you were looking at, people debated heavily what was behind that.
Were they being manipulated?
Was it just an inherent bias in the people who are using these markets already?
Whatever the case may be, their early prediction did come to pass.
So very interesting stuff.
I don’t think we’ve seen the last of these marketplaces, Carly.
What were your thoughts on the role they played and their perhaps predictive power or maybe a little bit of Scalduggery going on there, Carly?
Well, obviously there is room for manipulation, but I think you can say that with traditional polls as well, at least with the markets.
You know, people are putting their money where their mouth is.
So I’d say I’d probably favor prediction polls over, or prediction markets, I should say, over traditional polls.
It’s hard to argue that they haven’t worked a little better, but I mean, this is a very small sample.
We’ll have to go through another two or three election cycles to really make a concrete conclusion.
But I think we can all agree the traditional polls just really have not been accurate lately.
So we might as well look for a better guide.
Let’s see if we can find our better guide today, shall we Carly?
Another hot and heavy week out there as we’re kicking off the show on the equity markets.
We have seen some more of this red starting to make its way back into the markets.
You know, we kissed 6,000, broke through it ever so briefly, Carly.
And ever since then, it seems like we’ve been struggling to maintain that and giving a lot of that up.
S&P well below even 5,900 now got lower.
We have been struggling to rally.
We do have a big event for the equity world after the bell today as we’re recording this, which is of course, Nvidia’s earnings.
If past is prologue, maybe they’ll knock the cover off the ball again and they’ll send the markets into another dizzying rally.
Or perhaps there’s AI fatigue.
That is can’t keep up with the stratospheric expectations and that will send the market into a tailspin.
Either way, we’ve seen a little bit of red on the screen out there today.
Of course, no shortage of geopolitical risk going on out there as well, which in the past markets have kind of whistled by the graveyard on those.
Maybe this time perhaps that will add a little bit of color out there as well.
So Carly, what was catching your eye out there and another tumultuous week in the futures market?
Well, we actually have been focusing on agricultural commodities.
Coffee has been a big mover and we’ve got our eye on cotton as well.
So some different markets here.
Really coffee and cotton.
I wasn’t expecting you to throw the two C’s at me.
What’s catching your eye in coffee and or cotton today, Carly?
Three C’s, Carly.
Not the most commonly traded markets, but we’re seeing coffee prices rally to roughly not quite all time highs, but pretty close multi-year highs.
And they’re doing it quite forcefully.
And so we’ve been able to put on some pretty nice options spreads there.
I know this is a futures trading segment, but the options are pretty attractive there.
Also, cotton seasonally bottoms out this time of year and we’re sitting on multi-year lows.
Cotton really hasn’t been under 66 cents many times in history.
We’re talking like over the last 30 years, we’ve been below it three times and it was the COVID crisis, the financial crisis.
And there was a bear market of 2016 that took all commodities down.
So at the most part, cotton generally stays above 66 cents and we’re there at a seasonal time where the prices tend to flip and start moving higher.
So timing looks good there.
We’re talking two C’s.
Why not throw in a third?
How about cocoa?
You into cocoa today as well, Carly?
Well, you know, last year, well, 2024, it was such a wild year in cocoa.
Honestly, I’ve pretty much pulled it off my quote board.
I don’t even look at it because it was so brutal last year.
Luckily, I didn’t lose a whole lot of money personally or for first some of the clients following us.
We tried to play it with options and it just didn’t work because the market was so volatile, so out of control and so thin.
So to be honest, I’d say you’re probably better off pulling cocoa off your quote board until maybe next year.
Hopefully things calm down and it becomes a better arena to participate in.
You just take it off your board.
Like I’m not even playing there anymore.
There you go.
Not even going there.
If Carly’s not even watching it, then maybe maybe you want to be hesitant diving into those markets.
Let’s see what’s lighting up our screens to the upside.
This is for this week.
We’ll get into today’s price action in a little bit.
Let’s just go back for the full week here.
Let’s start.
Let’s do a top 10 each direction.
Let’s start a number 10.
We’re going out to ethanol, the Dec ethanol contract number 10 up 4.06 percent this week.
A number nine.
I was just talking about this.
FIA is in town this week, Carly, the Futures Industry Association.
So I’ve been talking a lot of futures with folks this week and got into a heated conversation about FCOJ yesterday, which is always fun, AKA Orange Juice listeners.
The Jan contract in Orange Juice making our list again this week.
Number nine up 4.36 percent.
A number eight going out to February and to the non-precious metals, AKA what the Brits call aluminium.
Number eight up 4.8 percent.
Number seven, you knew crypto had to come in here somewhere.
It’s number seven and number six of the Bitcoin large and micro futures for November up five and 5.3 percent respectively.
And then we get to our old pal, NACS, somebody 4.96 and 5 percent respectively for the Bitcoin large and micro futures.
Then we get into our top five listeners.
Number five is energy, NACS, the Jan contract up 5.31 percent.
Number four, Carly’s beloved Coco.
She said she watches it every day like clockwork.
Can’t escape it.
The March contract going out of ways this time.
The March Coco contract up nearly 7 percent this week, 6.95 percent.
Number three, the other C, March coffee listeners up 8.11 percent.
Number two, it is palladium.
So getting precious again.
The Dease Palladium contract up 9.92 percent this week.
And the big dog this week.
This is why I say even folks on the vol show should be listening to the futures rundown.
Vicks making it into the calculation today.
A lot of that driven by today’s action out there and some of these, shall we say, international jitters out there.
The Dease contract up again.
Vol hardcore is plug your ears.
11.58 percent.
I know percent of a percent.
Just get over it.
I made my piece a little long time ago.
You’re going to have to as well.
So Vicks topping the board to the upside this week, Carly, what are your thoughts on that and any other surprises in our upside movers this week?
Yeah, I have a little surprise to see palladium and aluminum.
If you look at the other, a more common industrial metal copper, it is also up.
But the U.S. dollars up sharply today and the metals seem to be defying the U.S. dollars.
So I think there’s some really weird dynamics going on between currencies and metals that have yet to be discovered.
A lot of it could be year end stuff.
I mean, markets are already starting to thin out for the holidays and I’ll warn people do not ruin your holiday.
Keep your positioning very light going into Thanksgiving and plan on staying that way through the new year because really weird things happen in these markets over the holidays.
You don’t want to be caught on the wrong side and ruin your turkey dinner.
But you should be all in on Coco, right?
That’s the one you should be all in on at all times.
Nothing but Coco.
Always.
24/7.
Always.
Always with Coco.
Let’s go to a little bit of red listeners.
If you’re feeling like Carly, you’re feeling a little bit bearish out there right now.
Let’s see if we can find some fun for you here.
Number 10 in the red this week.
Listeners, we’ve got the micro S&P, the D’s contract off 1.83%.
So kind of getting back to what I was saying about equities struggling to maintain this post election euphoria that they were all just gripped with.
Number nine, right above it, we have the Russell 2000.
So if large caps aren’t your bag, small caps losing even more this week off 2.52%.
Number eight, we’re going to the tech-heavy NASDAQ listeners.
We’re just keeping our theme alive here off 2.6%.
Same for number seven.
That was the micro NASDAQ D’s, the E-mini NASDAQ D’s also again off 2.6%.
Then right above it, we have the Ether micro contract off 2.7%.
Interestingly enough, the Ether large futures a little bit above it.
As we get into our bottom five here for the week listeners.
Number five, we have our old friend pork cutout.
Been making it onto the list every week lately.
The D’s contract off 2.85%.
Then number four, we have the big E-futures off 2.95%.
You might be scratching your head, why is the micro and the large E-futures, why is there such a discrepancy between the two?
I would really just chop that up to liquidity.
There isn’t a ton of going on in these products.
So sometimes you might see a little bit of a distortion in levels.
They’re still pretty similar, but that’s probably what’s going to attribute to that difference.
Then number three, listeners, we have the sugar contract, the March sugar off 3.07%.
Number two, soybean oil going all the way out to January 4.12% in the red.
And number one, I don’t think we talked about this one on the show in the past, Carly.
It’s canola, the Jan contract off 4.93%.
So Carly, this is why I love this show.
This is why so many of the listeners, I think, clearly are responding to this show because there’s literally something for everyone on the show this week.
I think we touched on just about every category, including pork cutout and canola Carly.
What more do they want?
Yeah, I think you’re right.
To be honest, I’m a little kind of disappointed that the CME pulled pork bellies off of the listed products and then replaced it with pork cutout.
Maybe they should have just left pork bellies.
At least that was movie famous and everybody knew about it.
Yeah, pork cutout doesn’t have the same resonance.
Pork belly, everyone knows what that is.
They’ve maybe had it.
Of course, you’re right.
They’ve been in movies.
It’s a product they’ve at least heard of.
Pork cutout, I think a little bit farther down the rabbit hole.
Any other surprises in our red side this week, Carly?
No, no, not really any surprises kind of par for the course.
It looks like other than some, you know, canola and pork cutout, Lumi in there.
Everyone’s favorite out there.
You know, canola lighten up your phones these days.
I hear.
Let’s see what’s lighting it up in particular today.
You’re listening to this show today.
Listen as you want to see what’s what’s lighting it up out there in terms of price action today.
Let’s do a quick top and bottom five number five to the upside.
We’ve got lean hogs, Feb contract up nearly two percent.
Number four right above it.
We have orange juice, the Jan contract up 3.06 percent just today.
Coffee number three, 4.43 percent.
Number two, Nat gas.
So popping a little bit today up 4.62 percent.
And the biggest mover again, getting back to what I was saying earlier, the DS VIX contract up 5.45 percent.
A lot of that VIX move coming today.
Listeners catching a bit of a bid and then to the dark side to the red.
We go listeners.
Number five, we have the EATH futures off 1.65 percent.
This has been a theme we’ve been talking about on our crypto rundown.
If you are crypto curious, I encourage you to check out that show.
We recorded every Monday.
It’s of course available on demand wherever you’re getting this show.
Another reason why you should be subscribed to the full network.
We’ve been talking about EATH kind of lagging behind some of the other cryptos.
Early on, EATH was very much the bellwether, the bell of the ball, really.
Everyone coming on our crypto show was all enamored with EATH.
I would say in the last year or two, maybe some other projects starting to steal some of that thunder and most notably Solana really moving hard out there.
So when everything else is rallying, EATH actually giving up the ghost a little bit, which maybe not the best long term sign for the EATH bulls out there.
But I digress.
Number four, sugar contract off the March contract off 1.68 percent.
Number three, canola.
Again, we’re just talking about the Jan contract off 2.11 percent just today.
Uranium back on our list for today’s movers, the Jan contract off 2.47 percent.
And the number one contract moving to the downside today, listeners, the Jan soybean oil contract off 3.23 percent.
Carly, it’s interesting.
I was just at the FIA conference most of the week out there.
We missed you down there at FIA.
You’re not an FIA conference attendee, Carly.
You know, I should be, but for whatever reason, I have never made it.
I need to.
It’s always fun when the entire future’s world descends on Chicago for a week.
But, you know, there’s other conferences going on in the same in the same venue.
And a woman came up to me yesterday at one of the events we had.
And she was from, I think, a different conference or just maybe just curious in general.
And so she saw what we were talking about.
And so she started asking me about markets, as always happens at these conferences.
And she had her daughter had inherited some money and she was looking at putting it to work in the market.
And she was absolutely mystified at how the markets could be rallying lately and how they were kind of shrugging off all of this geopolitical news we’re hearing of late.
And she was, of course, terrified by all the news coming out of Ukraine and Putin.
And you hear the word nuclear terrifies a lot of people.
So she was absolutely mystified.
She thought we should be in an immediate, you know, nose dive in the markets and was kind of surprised.
This is something you and I have talked about before on the geopolitical realm, most notably in the energy markets you and I were talking a month ago when we were still in the mid to low 70s in products like WTI and that gas was rallying.
We were saying, wow, people are really kind of shrugging off all this potential geopolitical risk when it pertains to the energy market.
Now we’re looking larger, more broadly, more macro to the broad equity markets.
And the fact that, I mean, obviously VIX is moving today and moving this week.
So that’s maybe a little bit reflective of that.
But are you surprised like this poor woman was, Carly, that we’re not seeing more of this geopolitical risk being priced into the broad equity markets?
I am surprised to the extent that we’re seeing a lot of dysfunction in the markets and we’re seeing various markets react differently.
And what I mean by that is, for example, if we were on the verge of World War III, which seems that maybe we perhaps are, bonds should probably be higher than they are and interest rates should be a lot lower.
So the opposite ways.
And then we also see, all we’re seeing today on our quote boards is the aftermath of, you know, multiple years, maybe even decades of government and a lot of money injected into the system to remove recession risks, remove the COVID pandemic risk, all of these sorts of things that the Federal Reserve and even our politicians in Washington tried to control market reactions.
And they were probably with maybe with good intentions to soften the blow to many of us.
But the reality is it’s going to take years to work all these.
All right.
Listen, it’s not going to take us years to get to your questions.
Let’s do it now.
A little bit of the old futures free for all.
Ring the bell.
It’s time to take on all comers in an epic Q&A battle royale.
All questions can enter, but none can leave without an answer.
It’s time for the Futures Free for All.
All right, everybody.
Welcome to the Futures Free for All, the portion of the show where you folks take the range of questions, your comments, and you have a lot of them.
So we appreciate all of you taking the time to send in those questions and comments.
We have an epic one coming up on the next episode.
Listeners for our holiday extravaganza, we’ll get there in a second.
First, let’s go out to my boy Luigi.
You haven’t seen him in there in a little bit.
Good to see my boy Luigi making a return appearance.
He says, hey, Mark and Carly, followed by a bunch of smiley faces and fist bumps.
So hey, right back at you, my boy Luigi.
He says, I recently read a book talking about a possible shift in sentiment from a tech heavy atmosphere to a hard asset one.
What are your thoughts about this?
Do you have more of a warm and fuzzy for gold and silver or does something else seem more appropriate?
Thank you so much for your time.
Wishing smooth sailing to you both, Luigi.
All right.
So Luigi’s been reading books, Carly, which is always scary.
But let’s let’s let’s debate that a little bit.
Sounds kind of fun.
We have been seeing big moves in the hard asset markets of late, as he mentions gold and silver.
They had a nice run, a huge run early into the year.
Took another nice leg up leading into the election.
Obviously post-election when we didn’t see all the potential turmoil, a lot of people were dreading and or anticipating coming out of the election.
We saw gold and silver start to take it on the chin.
This goes back to what we were just talking about earlier, though.
Maybe some of that geopolitical risk.
That could certainly be a boon to the hard assets.
But Carly, what are your thoughts about that?
Maybe potentially shifting some of your assets out of, as he puts it, the tech heavy.
So the A.I., the Nasdaq names and into more of the hard assets like gold and silver.
Do you like that now or do you think gold and silver have already moved so much?
Maybe maybe it’s time to hold off.
I do agree with the premise that the equity market is overvalued, particularly some of the big movers, the momentum stocks.
So I personally, in my portfolio, have been selling risk assets.
And I’ve been buying treasuries, which hasn’t worked out beautifully, but it’s fine.
I sleep well at night and I’m collecting 4% to 5% to do it.
So it’s not hurting me at all.
That said, I wouldn’t be in favor of putting a whole lot of money into hard assets such as gold and silver, particularly gold.
And the reason I say that is we are, when we peaked out around 2800, we were a little above a very long term trend line that we had drawn on a monthly chart.
So we did break above it, but then we decisively sold off below it.
And that’s a pretty bearish development.
That’s a key reversal in my mind.
And when I look at fundamentals, I see the U.S. dollars very expensive.
I see interest rates are quite high relative to history.
I know there’s a lot of people that think they’re going to get higher.
I’m not in that camp.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think they will.
And the thing about gold and silver is it doesn’t pay interest.
So if you’re going to buy something for safety, you might as well buy something or put your money into something that’s paying you interest.
That’s my thought, especially when you look at the difference in the two markets.
Gold is very expensive historically and treasuries are very cheap historically.
So this may not work out in the next couple of weeks or maybe even the next couple of months.
But if you’re a long term investor and you’re holding for several months, I think it’ll work out just fine.
Yeah, it’s hard to get too enthusiastic about going all in on gold and silver right now, given the move they’ve had.
You’re right.
It just doesn’t doesn’t feel like the right time on top of all the other issues you implied there.
But a great question there, my boy Luigi.
We love all the questions out there.
Let us know what you decide to do out there, Luigi.
You always want to know.
Speaking of knowing, we also got this comment coming in.
People listen to the show on all different platforms and they comment on the show and write about the show and send the questions on all different platforms, including LinkedIn.
This one comes from Darnell Darnell Lockett replying to our episode 11 that I did with Mr.
Dan Grams, I called the mystery and madness of the COT report where we went all in on all things.
COT report, a.k.a. commitment of traders report listeners.
And he just said this was an excellent show.
The COT report still has some value for me.
I don’t use it as much as I did back in the mid 90s, but I still get it.
Yeah, you know, thank you.
First off, Darnell, thank you for your kind words.
We love to see so many people are really enjoying getting a lot of value out of the show.
That’s why we do it after all.
And your sentiment is what we’ve heard from a lot of people, actually, that the COT report used to be kind of a big deal before a lot of this data was more readily disseminated and freely available and other platforms.
The fact that the COT report is a bit of a lagging indicator now, to put it mildly, does diminish its utility.
Also, as I mentioned, that kind of ASCII format that the CFTC puts it out in is completely impenetrable to most people.
You’re much better off looking at it graphically.
I think it makes more intuitive sense.
And obviously, it still has some use case for those looking at long term trends.
And I’m guessing from your comments, Darnell, that’s kind of probably how you used it as well.
Carly, are you still a big fan, a devotee of the COT report or is that old antiquated data for you now, Carly?
Well, I happen to be pretty old and I’m an old school type of analyst.
So I use the COT report every day, every single day.
Now, I will admit that, as you mentioned, the data is delayed.
This is not something that you would use if you were day trading or maybe probably not even swing trading.
But if you’re looking for the really big ideas, the big trend reversals, that sort of thing, the COT report is very, very valuable because that’s where you can pick out which markets have overcrowded trades in both.
You know, sentiment we can see in the news headlines and on TV and message boards or X.
But when we want to see where people are actually putting their money, that’s what the COT report tells us.
And when traders, specifically large speculators, that particular group of the COT gets really overleveraged in one direction or the other.
That’s when we kind of take it as a yellow light to start looking for trend reversals and doesn’t always work, but it works more than it doesn’t.
All right, Carly, that music means have come to the end of this episode of the Futures Rundown.
Don’t you fear, listen, as we’ll be back next week with a very special episode of Blossom and of the Futures Rundown here as well as we dive deep.
What more could you ask for from a holiday episode of the Futures Rundown than a deep dive into all things so far?
Well, you folks literally asked for it.
So we’re giving it to you on the next episode.
I will be joined by Carly for that one.
But before we get there, Carly, check out Carly online.
She’s at Carly Garner for all of her great, great tweeting and insight.
Check out her books while you’re at it as well.
We don’t get a chance to plug them enough.
They are trading commodity options with creativity, higher probability commodity trading, and of course, a trader’s first book on commodities.
So if you’re new to these markets, listeners, then by all means, check out those books.
And while you’re checking things out online, by all means, head on over to our pals over there at CTSFutures.com, the place to go to kick the tires and light the fire.
Check out their T4 Futures and Options platform.
Or if you can’t find us, type T4 Futures and Options into Google.
That’ll get you there.
And you got a free month just when coming to the show so you can kick the tires and light the fires on all these products we’re talking about here.
On the show.
Back again with our usual array of content throughout the week.
Then we’re back again next week for a very special episode of the Futures Rundown.
See you then.
And stay safe out there, listeners.
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