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13.25 for VIX yesterday


That is the lowest number I can remember going into an NFP report in the last year. ?In that way the Fed did their job. ?The Taper is on course to be unwound in 4 months and stocks somehow are hovering near their all time highs. ?A feat of magic that would make ?Criss Angel do a double take. ?There is not a bid ?for volatility going into the move like the ones that shook stocks last year around this time.

My question is why? ?Well, things are getting back to normal. ?I can remember a time, mostly in the past, when the Fed meeting announcements hardly drew any activity. ?if we are lucky the markets will be getting back to that. The dance away from QE still has a bit of uncertainty in it but for now the VIX is saying not so much.

The only really curious activty is in the bond market where yields keep dropping. ?Maybe folks just want to own bonds now that the yields are not 1.5%. ?There is a realization that low rates could be around for a while since Uncle Sam and the Europeans have so much to pay back. The deficit is near half of what it was too so there is less supply.

What will get very interesting is if the VIX can post a new low for 2014. ?That will mean that sellers are coming in and willing to dump at low levels because they think the sky is clear. ?It just might be.

The Trade

?An index Iron Condor or Iron Butterfly should start to make sense now. ?Mostly because not much on the horizon in terms of rally with .10% growth in GDP. ?The flies should be a 1-2 day hold.