Soybean Bonanza
Today’s Spotlight Market
Key estimates from Tuesday?s USDA Supply/Demand Report
?????????????????????????? 2015 U.S. Production????????????????? 2015/16 U.S. Stockpiles
Corn:?????????????????? 13.630 billion bushels????????????????? 1.746 billion bushels
Soybeans:???????????? 3.850 billion bushels????????????????? 0.500 billion bushels ?
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Fundamentals
U.S. Grain and Soybean producers are expected to produce a bumper crop again this season, although slightly below record levels seen last season. In its May crop production report which was released on Tuesday, the USDA estimated U.S. Soybean production at 3.85 billion bushels, slightly below last season?s 3.969 billion bushel crop. U.S. Corn production was estimated at 13.630 billion bushels, down from 14.216 billion bushels produced in 2014. While U.S. production is expected to decline from last year?s totals, global supplies are expected to remain ample. The USDA raised its estimates for global soybean inventories to 96.22 million metric tons which would surpass the previous record of 89.55 million metric tons made just last year. Global Corn inventory estimates were pegged at 191.94 million metric tons which would be slightly lower than the 192.5 million metric ton stockpile seen last year.
Here in the U.S., producers took advantage of dry conditions last week to resume planting for this season?s crop.? The USDA reported on Monday that 75% of the U.S. Corn crop has been planted as of May 10, which is well ahead of the 5-year average of 57%. Soybean producers were also active, with 31% of the crop planted vs. the 5-year average of 20%. Early plantings are generally viewed as supportive for crop yields as it reduces the chances of frost or freeze damage from a late maturing crop. So if Mother Nature cooperates, we could still see another ?bin buster? for both U.S. Corn and Soybeans this season.
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Technical Notes? -? View Today’s Chart
Looking at the daily chart for November Soybeans, we notice daily price ranges becoming even tighter as the market awaits direction once the crop has been planted. The current trend is slightly favoring Bean bears as prices remain below the 200-day moving average. Ironically, while daily price ranges are getting tighter, trading volume is increasing as traders and hedgers start to position themselves in the new-crop contracts. The 14-day RSI has turned weak, with a current reading of 37.17.? Support is seen at the September 2014 low of 927.50, with resistance found at the April 2015 high of 978.75.??
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