The following are the average estimates for the USDA Planted Acreage report
Corn: 92.76 million acres vs. 93.601 million acres from the March USDA report
Soybeans: 83.97 million acres vs. 82.236 million acres from the March USDA report
Wheat (all): 49.73 million acres vs. 49.559 million acres from the March USDA report
Fundamentals
Before grain traders pack-up early to start the long Independence Day Holiday weekend, there is still one major point of business to attend to and that is the release of the USDA Planted Acreage and Grain Stock Report on Thursday morning. Traders are looking for a modest decrease in Corn acreage from the March estimate, but an increase of over 1.5 million acres for Soybeans. Much of this acreage switch may be due to the relative price performance of Soybeans compared to Corn, which encouraged those producers on the fence to move towards Soybeans this season. As of the end of June, crop condition ratings are excellent for both Corn and Soybeans as we head into July. However, the National Weather Service (NWS) 8 to14-day forecast has the entire Midwest at above normal temperatures.? While the NWS also has above normal precipitation forecasted from the upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley, many traders will definitely be keeping an eye on the weatherman as we move into the heart of summer.
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Technical Notes
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Looking at the daily chart for November Soybeans, we note that despite the recent $1-plus price correction, the overall daily chart still appears bullish. Prices are once again testing the 20-day moving average, and a strong move higher, especially if it occurs on higher than average trading volume, could signal that the recent price correction was merely a bull flag formation. The 14-day RSI has corrected from well overbought readings over 80 to a more neutral 53.34 as of this writing. The recent low from 6/24/2016 at 1072.50 should likely now act as chart support for the November futures, with resistance remaining at the contract high of 1186.25 made back on June 13.
