Today’s Spotlight Market
With less than five weeks until the general election in the United States, many traders will be keenly watching the non-farm payroll employment report for September which will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Initial jobless claims came in lower than expected, 249,000 versus the anticipated 256,000. This is an extremely low level, indicating a very low level of layoffs.
Fundamentals
ADP payroll numbers for September were released yesterday, coming in lower than expected, with 154,000 jobs added versus expectations of 166,000. However, many observers are pointing to a tightening US job market as the reason for the lower number. 169,000 jobs added is the forecast for September non-farm payrolls, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.9%. A strong employment number likely will increase the chance of a December interest rate increase. Fed Funds futures are currently pointing to a 55% probability of a rate hike. The recent increase in crude oil prices may add inflationary pressures in addition to rising wages from a tighter labor market.
Technical Notes? -? View Today’s Chart
Turning to the three-month continuation chart of the E-mini S&P 500 futures, we see trading channeling between the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA), with the 20-day SMA providing support and the 50-day SMA providing resistance. Trading is still above the longer-term support level of 2100, with the 2185 level the longer-term resistance. 14-day relative strength index is a neutral 48.16.
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