In the past two weeks, concern about rising interest rates intensified after the European Central Bank announcement surprised investors with an interest rate cut and plans for possible bond purchases.
In addition, last week renewed speculation surfaced that the Federal Reserve may change the wording in their policy statement due this week implying interest rates may begin increasing sooner than previously expected. Accordingly, market participants pushed both interest rates and the dollar higher. Since Fed announcement speculation recurs, perhaps the ECB announcement was more important as is implies a major policy shift in an effort to fight deflation in the Eurozone.
At week’s end, both the US Dollar Index (DX) and Treasury interest rates appeared overbought and will likely retreat if the Fed maintains or slightly alters the “considerable time” wording in their statement. We have an updated US Dollar Index chart along with another for ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) our preferred interest rate indicator included in our regular market review. Then we update a previous high IV/HV ratio suggested idea for GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (GTAT) made last week.
Market Review
S&P 500 Index (SPX) last week it looked as if the breakout above the July 24 high at 1991.39 had been successfully retested, but that was not the case as the modest decline continued and now looks as if it could go down to 1975 where there should be good support. As a reference, the long-term upward sloping trend line from the November 16, 2012 low now crosses at 1934.16, about 2.6% lower.
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) despite dollar strength that favors domestic small capitalization stocks it continues underperforming the big capitalization indexes and remains well below the July 1 high of 120.97 needed to breakout out above the current range thereby establishing a new uptrend. In the meanwhile, a potential double top remains the operative technical pattern.
Powershares QQQ (QQQ) since breaking out above the July 24 high at 97.51 and now moving in a narrow range just under 100, it remains the relative strength leader advancing 2.02%, compared to -.29% for SPX. The bulls are likely to say it demonstrates relative strength while the bears say it’s lagging the SPX weakness and will eventually accelerate lower to close the gap.
CBOE Volatility Index? (VIX) up 1.22 for the week, it appears to be trending higher from the August 24 low of 11.24.
The table below shows the VIX cash compared to the next two futures contracts as well as our calculation of Larry McMillan’s day-weighted average between the first and second months.
The day weighting applies 10% to September and 90% to October for a 10.48% premium shown above. Our alternative volume-weighted average between September and October, regularly found in the Options Data Analysis section on our homepage, is a bit lower at 8.26%. Premiums for a normal term structure are 10% to 20%, while premiums above 20% are unsustainable suggesting a lack of enthusiasm for VIX hedging. Premiums less than 10% suggest caution and negative premiums are unsustainable suggesting an oversold condition. Last week, the premiums remained below 10% every day, averaging 7.33% for the week. Friday’s preliminary volume report was 253,796 contracts up substantially from the previous week at 137,313 reflecting increased hedging along with contracts rolling over into October since Tuesday is the last trading day for the September contract.
VIX Options
With a current 30-day Historical Volatility of 79.38 and 91.45 using Parkinson’s range method, the table below shows the Implied Volatility (IV) of the at-the-money VIX calls and puts using the futures prices based upon Friday’s closing option mid prices along with their respective month?s futures prices, since the options are priced from the tradable futures.
Compared to the range historical volatility of 91.45 the September and October options are slightly undervalued. Friday’s volume at 829,907 contracts was considerably higher than the 545,880 average for the week.
CBOE S&P 500 Skew Index (SKEW) measures the purchase of out-of-the-money S&P 500 Index puts that require a very large downside move to profit from long put positions. An increase of this index indicates greater expectations for an extreme down move. The CBOE explains further, a Skew value of 100 means the perceived distribution of S&P 500 log-returns is normal so the probability of outlier returns is negligible. As Skew rises above 100, the left tail of the distribution acquires more weight increasing the probability of outlier returns.
After spending most of the week above 130 it made a sizable -5.35 decline Friday to close back below the middle of the current range between 143.26 and 120.36.
US Dollar Index (DX) this chart suggests the dollar is overbought challenging the July 9, 2013 high at 84.75. An advance above this level would change the intermediate trend up. After the rapid advance up from 81 in the last few days, the odds are good that it will pause and consolidate around 84 or even decline somewhat.
?
Next, interest rates,
10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX) the substantial 8 basis point advance Friday on speculation the Federal Reserve will delete “considerable time” from the wording in their statement after the FOMC meeting this week demonstrates just how jittery the markets are about any increase in interest rates. Although Friday’s advance was important, the yield was as high as 2.69 onJuly 3 and 2.74 on April 22. The sensitivity to any suggestion that interest rates will rise is understandable since both bonds and equities will decline, perhaps substantially when the market begins discounting advancing rates, which is widely anticipated. However, this has been the situation for the last year or more.
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)?
Since bonds with longer maturities are more sensitive to interest rate changes adding the leverage of the ultra short ETF adds additional sensitivity making it a good indicator to use for an interest rate perspective. Here is the chart for the last year.
The downward sloping trendline marked DSTL begins at the December 31, 2003 high at 80.28 touching the July 3 high at 63.92.Thursday it closed above the DSTL and then gapped higher Friday something often seen as prices cross trendlines. The next point to watch is the July 31 high at 60.22 marked A, and then finally the July 3 high marked B. While it appears the downtrend is over it will take closes above both A & B to confirm interest rates are turning higher.
Summary
The continuing US Dollar strength appears to be reflecting expectations for higher interest rates relative to the euro and yen and “flight to safety” as geopolitical tensions remain unresolved. While now overbought it could stabilized relieving some pressure on both bonds and equities. However, in the event both the dollar and interest rates continue higher this week it will be time to begin implementing hedging strategies.