Volatility Views 4: The Many Flavors of Volatility Cones

Volatility Views 4: The Many Flavors of Volatility Cones

Volatility Views 4: The Many Flavors of Volatility ConesVolatility Review: We get a real-time look at the volatility of volatility with a big one-day move in the Euro vol contract. "Sell" was the word in vol last week. Contango craziness.Strategy Session: Contango – a basic introduction; Mean reversion – beyond basic introduction; Volatility cones as a trading signal: they come in many flavors.Crystal Ball: Interesting vol ahead, both in the Euro contracts, and in the market in general. VIX cash fluctuations. Sebastian predicts that S&P will downgrade U.S. debt on Monday. Are you ready for "Sell in May and go away"?

read more
Volatility Views 4: The Many Flavors of Volatility Cones

Volatility Views 4: The Many Flavors of Volatility Cones

Volatility Review: We get a real-time look at the volatility of volatility with a big one-day move in the Euro vol contract. "Sell" was the word in vol last week. Contango craziness.Strategy Session: Contango basic introduction; Mean reversion – beyond basic introduction; Volatility cones as a trading signal: they come in many flavors.Crystal Ball: Interesting vol ahead, both in the Euro contracts, and in the market in general. VIX cash fluctuations. Sebastian predicts that S&P will downgrade U.S. debt on Monday. Are you ready for "Sell in May and go away"?

read more
Volatility Views 3: Root-Mean-Square

Volatility Views 3: Root-Mean-Square

Week in Review: Slow and low? That's the volatility understatement of the year. Ten-day realized vol is near two-year lows. Is this the eye of the hurricane or the calm after the storm? Implied vol rally low, although IV ended up on the week in the S&P 500. Market doesn't completely trust this low vol levels.Strategy Session: Continuing last week's discussion, we begin into logical errors when deriving volatility over discrete periods. The simple answer: Root, Mean, Square. Don walks us through the math, as well as the usefulness of this method when looking to hedge volatility exposure over a longer period of time. Cheap volatility and buying or selling premium? Mark and Don discuss their own thougths on these two matters. Crystal Ball: Yay…no government shutdown, which may actually put a dampter on upcoming vol. However, if oil continues to rally, and indications of interest rates rising, we'll see increases in IV. Good news doesn't rally market = warning sign. Upcoming numbers to watch: Retail sales; beige book; Michigan sentiment; PPI; CPI. GVZ: Gold vol index starts trading options at CBOE starting 4/12. When will oil and the broader market diverge?

read more
Volatility Views Premiere Episode: Can Delta Neutral Capture Pure Volatility?

Volatility Views Premiere Episode: Can Delta Neutral Capture Pure Volatility?

* Volatility Week In Review: Volatility taking a steep downturn as concerns lessen; Skew Index – Can it predict Black Swans?; why has volatility dropped; the phenomenon of markets dropping precipitously and rise more steadily; Euro vol discussion. * Strategy Session: Delta neutral trading: what is it? why do it? how to do it. * Crystal Ball: Good time to pick up downside protection; currencies looking to the upside for vol

read more