Volatility Views 39: Redefining Normal

Volatility Views 39: Redefining Normal

Volatility Review: How low can vol continue to go? Dancing around 17 in VIX cash. We have finally reached perfect equilibrium. The last 22 trading days of realized volatiity was 6.73 for the S&P, the lowest Don has remembered since 1994. Lofty numbers have skewed people's ideas of "normal," and it's time to reassess the definition of it. Expiration day for the February Euro VolContract.Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Mark, and Don discuss volatility correlation, overlays for equity portfolios, and several other uses for volatility products with Simon Acomb, from Acomb Financial Research, Ltd.Crystal Ball: Dipping into the murky depths of volatility. Mark S. sees a flattening of the VIX yield curve, and thinks it makes sense to isolate gamma and short VIX using S&P versus VIX futures. Don provides insightful Euro vol picks.

read more
Volatility Views 38: The Great Skew Debate

Volatility Views 38: The Great Skew Debate

Volatility Review: What is going on with the VIX? How low can it go? Sebas sees VIX going to 16. Don gives a Euro VolContract update, noting the equity-like behavior (underlying increased, while vol dropped). Looking forward to the Nasdaq 100 VolContracts.Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Mark, and Don discuss volatility and skew with John Bilson, Professor of Finance at the Illinois Institute of Technology's Stuart School of Finance. Professor Bilson also proposes two new types of contracts for the marketplace.Crytsal Ball: Right now, there are good opportunities to buy individual equity options because volatility is so low. Mark Sebastian uses AAPL as an example. The impact of the leverage effect. Don thinks that the vol levels on the Euro VolContracts look just about right.

read more
Volatility Views 38: The Great Skew Debate

Volatility Views 38: The Great Skew Debate

Volatility Review: What is going on with the VIX? How low can it go? Sebas sees VIX going to 16. Don gives a Euro VolContract update, noting the equity-like behavior (underlying increased, while vol dropped). Looking forward to the Nasdaq 100 VolContracts.Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Mark, and Don discuss volatility and skew with John Bilson, Professor of Finance at the Illinois Institute of Technology's Stuart School of Finance. Professor Bilson also proposes two new types of contracts for the marketplace.Crytsal Ball: Right now, there are good opportunities to buy individual equity options because volatility is so low. Mark Sebastian uses AAPL as an example. The impact of the leverage effect. Don thinks that the vol levels on the Euro VolContracts look just about right.

read more
Volatility Views 37: Volatility: How Low Can It Go?

Volatility Views 37: Volatility: How Low Can It Go?

Volatility Review: Might we see VIX below 20 for some time to come? Euro vol up slightly since last week — Bob Krause called it correctly. Two weeks to go in the Feb VolContract.Volatility Viewpoint: Don gets a chance to give his views on last week's topics and talking points from Nikunj Kapadia, Associate Professor at the UMass Eisenberg School of Management. Mailbag: VolContracts on the NASDAQ!!!Crystal Ball: Vol could stay below 20 for a while, VIX futures are even on sale. Is volatility at 12 realistic for the Euro going forward?

read more
Volatility Views 37: Volatility: How Low Can It Go?

Volatility Views 37: Volatility: How Low Can It Go?

Volatility Review: Might we see VIX below 20 for some time to come? Euro vol up slightly since last week — Bob Krause called it correctly. Two weeks to go in the Feb VolContract.Volatility Viewpoint: Don gets a chance to give his views on last week's topics and talking points from Nikunj Kapadia, Associate Professor at the UMass Eisenberg School of Management. Mailbag: VolContracts on the NASDAQ!!!Crystal Ball: Vol could stay below 20 for a while, VIX futures are even on sale. Is volatility at 12 realistic for the Euro going forward?

read more
Volatility Views 36: The VIX vs. Black Swan: Analyzing Tail Risk in the VIX

Volatility Views 36: The VIX vs. Black Swan: Analyzing Tail Risk in the VIX

Volatility Review: Another interesting week in general volatility. Although predicted to settle around the new mean of 23-25, VIX is down to 19. Where will it go next? CBOE has finally put out an adjustment to their settlement process. Euro VolContract review. Volatility Viewpoint: This week's guest, Nikunj Kapadia from UMass, sits down with Mark and Bob to discuss Black Swans, volatility pricing, tail risk, and buy-writes.Crystal Ball: VIX may be headed towards 19 from heavy pressure on VIX Jan and Feb futures. Could we really see an explosion to the upside? Big news at VolX!

read more
Volatility Views 36: The VIX vs. Black Swan: Analyzing Tail Risk in the VIX

Volatility Views 36: The VIX vs. Black Swan: Analyzing Tail Risk in the VIX

Volatility Review: Another interesting week in general volatility. Although predicted to settle around the new mean of 23-25, VIX is down to 19. Where will it go next? CBOE has finally put out an adjustment to their settlement process. Euro VolContract review. Volatility Viewpoint: This week's guest, Nikunj Kapadia from UMass, sits down with Mark and Bob to discuss Black Swans, volatility pricing, tail risk, and buy-writes.Crystal Ball: VIX may be headed towards 19 from heavy pressure on VIX Jan and Feb futures. Could we really see an explosion to the upside? Big news at VolX!

read more
Volatility Views 35: Aggressively Selling Volatility in the New Year

Volatility Views 35: Aggressively Selling Volatility in the New Year

Volatility Review: After a holiday hiatus, Mark, Don, and Mark Sebastian discuss and review current and upcoming vol in 2012. The $64,000 question: Why is vol getting crushed? What's happening in the Euro zone? Volatility Viewpoint: A grab bag of volatility topics in this viewpoint section, including: VIX futures–how they trade, the nature of their term structure, contango, etc., and actual realized vol in the market for the past year. Mailbag: Best method of volatility measurement? Crystal Ball: Vol, S&P, VIX, EuroVol Contracts, and Jan futures–where are they moving this year? A few new contracts may be in the pipeline over at VolX.

read more
Volatility Views 35: Aggressively Selling Volatility in the New Year

Volatility Views 35: Aggressively Selling Volatility in the New Year

Volatility Review: After a holiday hiatus, Mark, Don, and Mark Sebastian discuss and review current and upcoming vol in 2012. The $64,000 question: Why is vol getting crushed? What's happening in the Euro zone? Volatility Viewpoint: A grab bag of volatility topics in this viewpoint section, including: VIX futures–how they trade, the nature of their term structure, contango, etc., and actual realized vol in the market for the past year. Mailbag: Best method of volatility measurement? Crystal Ball: Vol, S&P, VIX, EuroVol Contracts, and Jan futures–where are they moving this year? A few new contracts may be in the pipeline over at VolX.

read more
Volatility Views 34: A Break from the Insanity

Volatility Views 34: A Break from the Insanity

Volatility Review: This was an intriguing week for volatility action. Strange week in the world of VIX, with it finally returning to "normal." The novel concept of being fully insured. The seasonality of VIX–general uptrend in market plus professionals taking money off the table equals a perfect storm in VIX. Euro VolContract updates–December one-month went out at 11.12, three-month at 12.84.Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don discuss volatility with Stephen Figlewski, Professor of Finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, founding editor of the Journal of Derivatives, and Director at the Nasdaq OMX Derivatives Research Project.Crystal Ball: VIX at a much more tolerable level, but Mark thinks it will vacillate in this "new mean" for quite a while. January Euro VolContract is fairly new, but volatility is forecasted to be lower going out.

read more
Volatility Views 34: A Break from the Insanity

Volatility Views 34: A Break from the Insanity

Volatility Review: This was an intriguing week for volatility action. Strange week in the world of VIX, with it finally returning to "normal." The novel concept of being fully insured. The seasonality of VIX–general uptrend in market plus professionals taking money off the table equals a perfect storm in VIX. Euro VolContract updates–December one-month went out at 11.12, three-month at 12.84.Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don discuss volatility with Stephen Figlewski, Professor of Finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, founding editor of the Journal of Derivatives, and Director at the Nasdaq OMX Derivatives Research Project.Crystal Ball: VIX at a much more tolerable level, but Mark thinks it will vacillate in this "new mean" for quite a while. January Euro VolContract is fairly new, but volatility is forecasted to be lower going out.

read more