Volatility Views 58: Cracking the Bond Code

Volatility Views 58: Cracking the Bond Code

Volatility Review: NASDAQ realized volatility makes a slight upward move, and until we get any evidence to the contrary, this action will likely continue.Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Dr. Madhu Kalimipalli, Associate Professor of Finance and Director of the Financial Services Research Center at the School of Business at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Crystal Ball: Greek elections on Sunday. Could send us off in any direction. The movement of volatility will creep back up to normal levels again.

read more
Volatility Views 57: Turning the Tables on Mark Sebastian

Volatility Views 57: Turning the Tables on Mark Sebastian

Volatility Review: VIX is back this week, after it ended unchanged at 0.0 before last week's Option Block episodes. Time will tell as we see what happens in Europe. NASDAQ one- and three-month realized volatility has had almost no movement at all, but the trend is surely upward.Crystal Ball: We'll have to keep an eye on Europe, but expect little change in realized volatility. There will be a break in S&P in one direction or the other. Volatility Viewpoint: Long-time panelist Mark Sebastian gets the chance to sit in the guest's seat and discusses what Option Pit is and the world of options education. Mail Bag: Answering listener questions.

read more
Volatility Views 57: Turning the Tables on Mark Sebastian

Volatility Views 57: Turning the Tables on Mark Sebastian

Volatility Review: VIX is back this week, after it ended unchanged at 0.0 before last week's Option Block episodes. Time will tell as we see what happens in Europe. NASDAQ one- and three-month realized volatility has had almost no movement at all, but the trend is surely upward.Crystal Ball: We'll have to keep an eye on Europe, but expect little change in realized volatility. There will be a break in S&P in one direction or the other. Volatility Viewpoint: Long-time panelist Mark Sebastian gets the chance to sit in the guest's seat and discusses what Option Pit is and the world of options education. Mail Bag: Answering listener questions.

read more
Volatility Views 56: More Listener Mail Fun

Volatility Views 56: More Listener Mail Fun

Volatility Review: Broad selloffs across the markets, due to the poor jobless claims numbers. One-month realized volatility on the NASDAQ was up about half a percentage point to 17.40, and the three-month edged higher to 16.02. Reacting, rather than predicting, was the order of the day.Listener Mail: We're Going Listener Mail Crazy Again This WeekCrystal Ball: We could see 30 shortly in the VIX. All-time low for 10- and 30-year bonds. More volatility — it's going to get worse before it gets better.

read more
Volatility Views 56: More Listener Mail Fun

Volatility Views 56: More Listener Mail Fun

Volatility Review: Broad selloffs across the markets, due to the poor jobless claims numbers. One-month realized volatility on the NASDAQ was up about half a percentage point to 17.40, and the three-month edged higher to 16.02. Reacting, rather than predicting, was the order of the day.Listener Mail: We're Going Listener Mail Crazy Again This WeekCrystal Ball: We could see 30 shortly in the VIX. All-time low for 10- and 30-year bonds. More volatility — it's going to get worse before it gets better.

read more
Volatility Views 55: Good Volatility, Bad Volatility

Volatility Views 55: Good Volatility, Bad Volatility

Volatility Review: The play between pre- and post-election Greek volatility has seen big action. Ultimately though, the EU will let the Greeks decided their own fate. Andrew G. does not want to own pre-election juice. Given realized volatility, there has not been much change in the NASDAQ. The three-month realized vol has actually risen somewhat — replacing volatility that was extremely low just a short while ago. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Andrew Patton, Associate Professor of Economics and Finance at Duke University. He is the author or co-author of several academic papers, including "Good Volatility, Bad Volatility." Prof. Patton discusses some of its findings, including the importance of directional movement in forecasting future volatility.Crystal Ball: In VIX, Andrew G. is just waiting for the Greek election to sell June, buy July, and unleash the time spread. NASDAQ one-month realized may roll over a little bit. The short term might be dropping more, but that is not a ringing endorsement.

read more
Volatility Views 55: Good Volatility, Bad Volatility

Volatility Views 55: Good Volatility, Bad Volatility

Volatility Review: The play between pre- and post-election Greek volatility has seen big action. Ultimately though, the EU will let the Greeks decided their own fate. Andrew G. does not want to own pre-election juice. Given realized volatility, there has not been much change in the NASDAQ. The three-month realized vol has actually risen somewhat — replacing volatility that was extremely low just a short while ago. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Andrew Patton, Associate Professor of Economics and Finance at Duke University. He is the author or co-author of several academic papers, including "Good Volatility, Bad Volatility." Prof. Patton discusses some of its findings, including the importance of directional movement in forecasting future volatility.Crystal Ball: In VIX, Andrew G. is just waiting for the Greek election to sell June, buy July, and unleash the time spread. NASDAQ one-month realized may roll over a little bit. The short term might be dropping more, but that is not a ringing endorsement.

read more
Volatility Views 54: Listener Mail Extravaganza, Part Two

Volatility Views 54: Listener Mail Extravaganza, Part Two

Volatility Review: NASDAQ one-month vol came in a little bit, and at the same time the three-month vol went up slightly. The risk premium between implied and realized volatility has widened further. A crazy scenario of implied vs. realized volatility in VIX. Listener Mail: Mark, Don, and Mark take on listener questions.Crystal Ball: We might start to see levels of realized vol taper off a bit in NASDAQ. The three-month vol of vol is actually lower than the vol of the S&P itself. VIX could reach 30 sooner than later. Bonds are in even worse condition.

read more
Volatility Views 54: Listener Mail Extravaganza, Part Two

Volatility Views 54: Listener Mail Extravaganza, Part Two

Volatility Review: NASDAQ one-month vol came in a little bit, and at the same time the three-month vol went up slightly. The risk premium between implied and realized volatility has widened further. A crazy scenario of implied vs. realized volatility in VIX. Listener Mail: Mark, Don, and Mark take on listener questions.Crystal Ball: We might start to see levels of realized vol taper off a bit in NASDAQ. The three-month vol of vol is actually lower than the vol of the S&P itself. VIX could reach 30 sooner than later. Bonds are in even worse condition.

read more
Volatility Views 53: An Insider's View of Risk Management

Volatility Views 53: An Insider's View of Risk Management

Volatility Review: There is an extra note of tension in the market with S&P vol waiting for the other shoe to drop. NASDAQ vol is slightly higher. JPMorgan news does little to rattle VIX.Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest, Todd Petzel, the Chief Investment Officer at Offit Capital, sits down with Mark and Don, and discusses myriad aspects of volatility and risk management. Crystal ball: Sebastian sees the market bouncing around in the short term. A safe trade may be shorting U.S. treasuries. There is still a continued contraction between implied risk premium and realized vol levels. Vol may go higher, but without anything dramatic moving it.

read more
Volatility Views 53: An Insider View of Risk Management

Volatility Views 53: An Insider View of Risk Management

Volatility Review: There is an extra note of tension in the market with S&P vol waiting for the other shoe to drop. NASDAQ vol is slightly higher. JPMorgan news does little to rattle VIX.Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest, Todd Petzel, the Chief Investment Officer at Offit Capital, sits down with Mark and Don, and discusses myriad aspects of volatility and risk management. Crystal ball: Sebastian sees the market bouncing around in the short term. A safe trade may be shorting U.S. treasuries. There is still a continued contraction between implied risk premium and realized vol levels. Vol may go higher, but without anything dramatic moving it.

read more
Volatility Views 52: The Father of Financial Futures

Volatility Views 52: The Father of Financial Futures

Volatility Review: Listeners from last week may remember Don made a timid prediction that the realized volatility of NASDAQ could be going a bit higher, and it managed to inch up a few basis points. It was a strong down week for equities. Since this selloff was gradual, the actual market volatility was not significant. Greek and French elections this weekend may fuel some volatility moves next week.Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Dr. Richard Sandor, "the father of financial futures," and Chairman and CEO of Environmental Financial Products. Dr. Sandor discusses his new book "Good Derivatives," and his storied career. He distinguishes between regulated and unregulated derivatives, discusses what it takes to create a new market, and his involvement in the issue of acid rain.Crystal Ball: There may be an increase in realized volatility on NASDAQ in the next week. Putting a cap on volatility at 20%. Upcoming elections in both France and Greece.

read more