Volatility Views 4: The Many Flavors of Volatility Cones

Volatility Views 4: The Many Flavors of Volatility Cones

Volatility Views 4: The Many Flavors of Volatility ConesVolatility Review: We get a real-time look at the volatility of volatility with a big one-day move in the Euro vol contract. "Sell" was the word in vol last week. Contango craziness.Strategy Session: Contango – a basic introduction; Mean reversion – beyond basic introduction; Volatility cones as a trading signal: they come in many flavors.Crystal Ball: Interesting vol ahead, both in the Euro contracts, and in the market in general. VIX cash fluctuations. Sebastian predicts that S&P will downgrade U.S. debt on Monday. Are you ready for "Sell in May and go away"?

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Volatility Views 4: The Many Flavors of Volatility Cones

Volatility Views 4: The Many Flavors of Volatility Cones

Volatility Review: We get a real-time look at the volatility of volatility with a big one-day move in the Euro vol contract. "Sell" was the word in vol last week. Contango craziness.Strategy Session: Contango basic introduction; Mean reversion – beyond basic introduction; Volatility cones as a trading signal: they come in many flavors.Crystal Ball: Interesting vol ahead, both in the Euro contracts, and in the market in general. VIX cash fluctuations. Sebastian predicts that S&P will downgrade U.S. debt on Monday. Are you ready for "Sell in May and go away"?

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Volatility Views 3: Root-Mean-Square

Volatility Views 3: Root-Mean-Square

Week in Review: Slow and low? That's the volatility understatement of the year. Ten-day realized vol is near two-year lows. Is this the eye of the hurricane or the calm after the storm? Implied vol rally low, although IV ended up on the week in the S&P 500. Market doesn't completely trust this low vol levels.Strategy Session: Continuing last week's discussion, we begin into logical errors when deriving volatility over discrete periods. The simple answer: Root, Mean, Square. Don walks us through the math, as well as the usefulness of this method when looking to hedge volatility exposure over a longer period of time. Cheap volatility and buying or selling premium? Mark and Don discuss their own thougths on these two matters. Crystal Ball: Yay…no government shutdown, which may actually put a dampter on upcoming vol. However, if oil continues to rally, and indications of interest rates rising, we'll see increases in IV. Good news doesn't rally market = warning sign. Upcoming numbers to watch: Retail sales; beige book; Michigan sentiment; PPI; CPI. GVZ: Gold vol index starts trading options at CBOE starting 4/12. When will oil and the broader market diverge?

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Option Block 48: Slinkies Are Wonderful Things

Trading Block: Snooze fest ahead of Bernanke interview. Mixed day on oil. Copper testing support. Weight bearing down on silver bulls.Odd Block: VVUS – does 26k contracts on ADV of 4k on the news that one of their drugs can reduce both blood pressure and cholesterol. XNPT: Front month vol is 360%. Does 11k contracts on ADV of 2k. IRM – ADV of 6k, does 14,500 on bullish activity, especially July 35-40 call spread and a sizable call to put ratio. AKS: Upside coming from renewed takeover chatter, bulls stampede in with upside calls.Xpress Block: A lot of Southwest (LUV) activity on the bullish side. Nasdaq stocks on a slow grind. Are people afraid to short the market? Traders riding the oil wave.Strategy Block: The top five questions to ask to know if your financial adviser understands options or not. Around the Block: Ben Bernanke interview tonight. Fed minutes coming up. Jobless claims. Keep an eye on time spreads.

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Options Insider Radio 83: The Future of VIX Futures

In this episode, Mark sits down with Jay Caauwe, Director of Business Development for the CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE). Mark and Jay discuss the past, present and future of VIX futures including: The strategy behind the creation of the CFE; the real players in the VIX futures market; why even the mini-VIX has failed to attract retail customers to VIX futures; Why so many options traders erroneously assume that VIX options key off the VIX cash; The growing threat/opportunity posed by realized volatility products; New product launches including GLD VIX and Oil VIX; and much more * Early open

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Option Block 47: What About The One-Five?

Trading Block: Mild day on the street; INTC gets downgraded and negativity goes viral; crude creeping up; Tim is eyeing the grains; Sebastian creates a new skew index.Odd Block: Tesla – up 20% on a big upgrade, plus they're suing Top Gear; trades over 40k on ADV of 3500. Neighbors Industries – hit a new 52-week high on an upgrade. Bulls dive in to May 28 puts. Illinois Tool Works – Speculative upside on the news that they "Meet the criteria for a Warren Buffet acquisition."Xpress Block: OX most actives: SPY, APPL, SPX, SLV, RUT, QQQQ, AMZN, IWM, NFLX, and VIX. Commodities: grains on the move because inventories are lower than expected.Around the Block: Mega data: non-farm payrolls, watching crude; wheat fields not yielding; what does it take to derail the bulls? Flat skew…premium sellers have their moment.

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