Option Block 92: Werewolves Love SLV

Trading Block: A sea of red in the market today – recession fears slam everything except treasuries. VIX cash gaps up yet again — VIX futures outlook. Metals/Commodities rundown – everything down across the board, with gold down as well, but no rolling down will be taking place before the weekend. Ford below the $10 handle. Odd Block: Yahoo! – (YHOO) Following an upgrade at Stifel, Nicolaus from "Hold" to "Buy" with a price target of $18.00, shares are on the plus side this morning. The analyst stated "the likelihood of a buyout has increased to 80%." Looks like some folks are betting on a buyout over the next few weeks. Bank of America – (BAC) Some large option players are "raising the white flag" in Bank of America Corp. (BAC) today with two large blocks of call options being sold on the bids and most likely closing out previous bullish positions. Perhaps most painful, someone dumped over 100k Jan 20 calls for $0.01! Covanta Holding Corp – (CVA) Stock has been hammered over the past few days. Someone thinks it’s overdone and bought a size bullish risk reversal. Range Resources Corp – (RRC) Looks like those upside specs on the 70 and 75 strikes could have paid off. Xpress Block: Tim Navabi runs down the daily goings on at OX. Today was a day for risk management. There's always a tomorrow in the market. The tools available on the OX are here to the rescue. Strategy Block: Mike Tosaw discusses his profound belief that we will get through our current financial situation. But you need some type of plan in place for down days like today. Around The Block: A lot of concern going into the weekend. Another good time to have some units in you back pocket. VIX option implied volatility exploded today, selling premium does not make sense. Has the bleeding stopped at Netflix for now? If you're thinking of playing in inverse ETFs or options on the ETFs, the margin requirements are tighter on the inverse ETFs. Apple held onto 400 today – a flight to safety.

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Option Block 91: The Widowmaker Rides Again

Trading Block: The "Widowmaker" (NFLX) CEO apologizes for the screw up with their pricing and thusly losing 1 million customers and the stock dropping 50% since the price increases in July. Could Netflix split into two separate businesses? Lenders tell Greece to get its act together and reduce the size of its government, or run out of cash within a few weeks. Metals/Commodities rundown — collaring gold until November. Oil really took it on the chin due to uncertainty in Europe. The Odd Block: Range Resources Corp. (RRC) saw its shares pop late this morning on news out of DealReporter that the company has been approached by a non-U.S. suitor. Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (CY) sees an early bearish put buyer this morning with the focus on the near month at-the-money contracts. Amerigroup Corp. (AGP) Interesting Option activity in ahead of the company’s analyst meeting in New York tomorrow morning. Xpress Block: Rob Kurzatkoski discusses the goings on today at OX, including Netflix and the recent and strange gold and S&P relationship. Strategy Block: In this strategy block, Andrew Giovinazzi talks strategy about the [[[[[meta]]]]]ls/gold frenzy that is consuming everyone these days. Around The Block: Housing starts tomorrow and existing home sales on Wednesday. Is housing a good indicator of the market? FOMC Wednesday — their relevance is fairly benign given they're holding fast for the next couple of years. Also, Jobless claims Thursday.

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Volatility Views 23: Can You Eat Risk-Adjusted Returns?

Volatility Views 23: Can You Eat Risk-Adjusted Returns?

Volatility Review: VIX futures vs. VIX cash — many long-dated contracts predicted the sell-off in VIX cash that is now materializing. Bond vol has been crazy, and bonds themselves have been very expensive. Implied and realized volatility. Volatility Viewpoint: Don takes this viewpoint segment to discuss the ideas and principles behind the Kelly Criterion.Crystal Ball: With the VIX in decline, as it moves toward the prediction given by long-term futures, will it dip and then turn back to the upside? An outlook of Euro vol — with the period of arb availability gone, can we find a new relationship to exploit?

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Volatility Views 23: Can You Eat Risk-Adjusted Returns?

Volatility Views 23: Can You Eat Risk-Adjusted Returns?

Volatility Review: VIX futures vs. VIX cash — many long-dated contracts predicted the sell-off in VIX cash that is now materializing. Bond vol has been crazy, and bonds themselves have been very expensive. Implied and realized volatility. Volatility Viewpoint: Don takes this viewpoint segment to discuss the ideas and principles behind the Kelly Criterion.Crystal Ball: With the VIX in decline, as it moves toward the prediction given by long-term futures, will it dip and then turn back to the upside? An outlook of Euro vol — with the period of arb availability gone, can we find a new relationship to exploit?

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Option Block 90: The Voice of Options

TRADING BLOCK: Research in Motion (RIMM) – The future looks bleak. "The Widowmaker" strikes again – Netflix (NFLX), which was trading $300 just two months ago, down 40%. Yet another "rogue trader" on the loose – this time it costs UBS $2 billion. Commodities rundown – gold is coming down, is this the right time tighten up your hedges? ODD BLOCK: Unusual and interesting options activity in: UBS AG (UBS) – a staggering $2 billion lost in trading as a rogue trader racked up unauthorized dealings. Call buying and put selling on the stock appear to be the most employed strategies of the day, with investors expecting shares to recover in the next five weeks. Amerigroup Corp. (AGP) – ahead of the company's analyst meeting in New York tomorrow morning, an opening buyer appeared in the September 45 Calls, paying the offers of $0.25-$0.35 for approximately 3500 contracts. These options expire tomorrow after the close so these trades will need the stock to climb another 4.6% to begin to see any profits. XPRESS BLOCK: Tim Navabi takes the reins and discusses the hectic day today at OX due to "The Widowmaker" aka Netflix, as well as the upcoming expiration of September futures. STRATEGY BLOCK: Mike Tosaw illuminates us on some in-depth options strategy. First, with the upcoming expiration, if you're not ready to hold a stock and you're short a put, maybe you'll want to close out those penny options. Second, make sure you know position delta before doing ratio spreads. AROUND THE BLOCK: An update on RIMM. Still some concern over Greece, also some concern about expiration upcoming. Not too much else lighting up the tape on the earnings front though. Play it safe this weekend.

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Option Block 89: Risk On, Risk Off

Trading Block: Metals outlook – Gold, bonds, and GLD have all been pulling back, there seems to be a lot of building of cash reserves right now. The heavy movement in VXO relative to VIX means there is a lot at the money buying to up the curve. Risk on/ risk off. VIX has been trading above VXN, so clearly the risk is in the financials, not tech. Could there be a violent move toward the upside? Is there any truth to the rumor that China could be buying Italian debt? Interview Block: Today's guest Joe Cusick, the head of education at OX, talks a little about the progression he feels most people should go through when learning about options. How do you keep investors interested while teaching them about the stuff that's not as fun? Education for some of the more refined and advanced traders. Finally, what is Joe's opinion of the VIX-based products, ETF – ETN, that have come into the market place? Has volatility become an asset class? Strategy Block: Mike Cavanaugh discusses what he saw in the marketplace, and how to build a long term investment portfolio given the trends he observed. Around The Block: Our hosts prognosticate about the upcoming week. In a market like this, it’s a great opportunity to sell premium. Retail sales on the 14th and Philly Fed comes out on the 15th, both of these could have a big impact on the market. When will things with Greece get resolved?

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Volatility Views 22: Bringing Don to the Dark Side

Volatility Views 22: Bringing Don to the Dark Side

Volatility Review: A broad market volatility review ? it's been another volatile week. The market sold off in the wake of a European central bank resignation. Euro vol review ? where did Mark and Don's wager close out? Do they have enough for a private island in the Bahamas? Plus, OptionPit.com's Mark Sebastian gives his review of the week. Volatility Viewpoint: In this combo Volatility Viewpoint/Listener Mail segment, Mark and Don answer a question from the Options Insider Forum: "I enjoyed the conversation last week between Mark and Bob about the Volatility Feedback Effect. They mentioned that Don is not a fan of this theory and that Bob and Don have had many fights on the subject. I'm curious what Don's issues are with this concept and what he feels is the truth on the matter." Indeed, Don gets his rebuttal, and gives his two cents about the volatility feedback effect. Crystal Ball: Mark Sebastian's outlook for the coming week, as well as an outlook of S&P 500 volatility and Euro vol.

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Volatility Views 22: Bringing Don to the Dark Side

Volatility Views 22: Bringing Don to the Dark Side

Volatility Review: A broad market volatility review ? it's been another volatile week. The market sold off in the wake of a European central bank resignation. Euro vol review ? where did Mark and Don's wager close out? Do they have enough for a private island in the Bahamas? Plus, OptionPit.com's Mark Sebastian gives his review of the week. Volatility Viewpoint: In this combo Volatility Viewpoint/Listener Mail segment, Mark and Don answer a question from the Options Insider Forum: "I enjoyed the conversation last week between Mark and Bob about the Volatility Feedback Effect. They mentioned that Don is not a fan of this theory and that Bob and Don have had many fights on the subject. I'm curious what Don's issues are with this concept and what he feels is the truth on the matter." Indeed, Don gets his rebuttal, and gives his two cents about the volatility feedback effect. Crystal Ball: Mark Sebastian's outlook for the coming week, as well as an outlook of S&P 500 volatility and Euro vol.

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Option Block 88: Gold Vol and The Big O

Trading Block: The market turned red despite Uncle Ben's promises. Obama's job speech – how will it affect the market? Commodity rundown – GLD off to the races again today, but is it time to start being bearish? A rundown of volatility & VIX Odd Block: Unusual activity in SuperValu Inc. (SVU) – This is probably someone taking advantage of option liquidity to dump some stock. FedEx Corp. (FDX) – An example of Bullish risk reversals; R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. (RRD) Xpress Block/Mail Block: OX's own Tim Navabi answers a few listener questions in this combo Xpress / Listener Questions block. 1.) Schwab hasn't offered portfolio margin in the past, but now that they have acquired OX, will they be offering that to their customers now or is that still a benefit only for OX customers? 2.) I have some clients who are also Schwab customers. They are excited about the prospect of portfolio margin coming to their accounts. How do they go about getting that treatment? Do they have to switch their accounts to OX? Will it be automatic? Is there some online form to fill out? Around The Block: Looking forward to President Obama's speech on jobs – could the payroll tax be a huge issue? After this speech will we see the whole weekend coming out?

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Volatility Views 21: The Volatility Feedback Effect

Volatility Views 21: The Volatility Feedback Effect

Volatility Review: A review of SPX, VIX, and pricing the weekend out. Non-farm payroll: what was the impact on vol? Euro vol review. How did Mark and Don's gentlemanly wager on three- and one-month vol fare from last week? Plus a live Vol Review from OptionPit.com's Mark Sebastian. Volatility Viewpoint: Volatility Exchange CEO Bob Krause talks inverse correlation ? is this specifically to address the VIX negative correlation perception? How can we tell if the market is bullish or bearish? Skew and the somewhat controversial topic of the volatility feedback effect are also on the docket. Is the market trying to forecast future returns? As volatility rises, the market must fall, but does it work the other way as well? Listener Questions: Mark and Bob reach into the dark recesses of the mailbag. "Why exactly is selling a three-month VolContract not the same as selling three consecutive one-month VolContracts? Is it analogous to the difference between writing a three-month option vs. three consecutive front-month options? I know that the sum of the decay in those three front-month options will be greater than the sum of the decay in the three-month option. Is it the same with the VolContracts?"Crystal Ball: An outlook of SPX & VIX. Could we pick up a free weekend on Friday? Euro vol outlook ? How will the one- and three-month VolContracts fare?

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Volatility Views 21: The Volatility Feedback Effect

Volatility Views 21: The Volatility Feedback Effect

Volatility Review: A review of SPX, VIX, and pricing the weekend out. Non-farm payroll: what was the impact on vol? Euro vol review. How did Mark and Don's gentlemanly wager on three- and one-month vol fare from last week? Plus a live Vol Review from OptionPit.com's Mark Sebastian. Volatility Viewpoint: Volatility Exchange CEO Bob Krause talks inverse correlation ? is this specifically to address the VIX negative correlation perception? How can we tell if the market is bullish or bearish? Skew and the somewhat controversial topic of the volatility feedback effect are also on the docket. Is the market trying to forecast future returns? As volatility rises, the market must fall, but does it work the other way as well? Listener Questions: Mark and Bob reach into the dark recesses of the mailbag. "Why exactly is selling a three-month VolContract not the same as selling three consecutive one-month VolContracts? Is it analogous to the difference between writing a three-month option vs. three consecutive front-month options? I know that the sum of the decay in those three front-month options will be greater than the sum of the decay in the three-month option. Is it the same with the VolContracts?"Crystal Ball: An outlook of SPX & VIX. Could we pick up a free weekend on Friday? Euro vol outlook ? How will the one- and three-month VolContracts fare?

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Option Block 87: OX-Schwab Day One

Trading Block: Another yo-yo day on the street. Manufacturing data was stronger than expected, but not enough to keep the market positive. The long weekend should have been priced out already, but it seems that many traders are holding off from hitting the bids ahead of non-farms tomorrow. A look of the [[meta]]ls/commodities: gold, silver, and natural gas. Odd Block: Unusual activity in: Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc. (DNKN); American Express Co. (AXP); Lexmark (LXK) Xpress Block: Alex Jacobson is back and discusses Legal Day 1 – the first day the Schwab/Option Xpress business combination became legal, and the party that ensued outside his window. The futures are becoming a more mainstream product. Strategy Block: Mike Tosaw discusses the world of 1 by 2 ratio spreads. What are the advantages & disadvantages? Around The Block: Everyone is keeping their powder dry ahead of non-farms payrolls tomorrow. Is this the time to get long premium and perhaps get a free weekend?

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