Option Block 96: Resetting the VIX Bar

Trading Block: VIX finally gets to the mid-30s! The bar for has been raised. Apple without Jobs – down 0.5%. What effect could Jobs have on Apple stock post-mortem, or is this a turning point for Apple?Odd Block: Unusual activity in Mortgage insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI); Children's Place Retail Stores, Inc. – (PLCE)Xpress Block: Tim Navabi grabs the reins and discusses what was trading today at OX, as well as a rundown of some of the commodity movers. CBOE also recently unveiled SPXpm — has it been successful?Around The Block: Nonfarms: October 7 Gold and Silver are both consolidating, something to definitely check out. Apple earnings: October 18. Google earnings: October 13

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Volatility Views 25: Skewness and Kurtosis

Volatility Views 25: Skewness and Kurtosis

Volatility Review: Metals and gold vol. Euro vol review: Don talks about the recommendations he had made to sell the Euro VolContracts a week ago Thursday, and where they settled this past Friday – a product rich in volatility. S&P, Nasdaq, and commodity vol review. Plus, Mark Sebastian's volatility review.Volatility Viewpoint: A quick primer on mean, median, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis of distributions. Plus, explaining negative market skewness, leptokurtic behavior of stock prices, etc. As always, we keep it easy to understand and non-intimidating.Mailbag: Captain Options asks, "Given the explosion of popularity in weekly options, I'm curious if Mark & Don think there is room for short-term realized volatility products. Would a weekly realized vol product even make sense at this point given the short time frame of the product? Can you generate a worthwhile calculation of volatility in such a short time frame?"Crystal Ball: S&P, Nasdaq, and commodity Vol outlook. Euro VolContracts outlook. What's coming up at VolX and Option Pit?

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Volatility Views 25: Skewness and Kurtosis

Volatility Views 25: Skewness and Kurtosis

Volatility Review: Metals and gold vol. Euro vol review: Don talks about the recommendations he had made to sell the Euro VolContracts a week ago Thursday, and where they settled this past Friday – a product rich in volatility. S&P, Nasdaq, and commodity vol review. Plus, Mark Sebastian's volatility review.Volatility Viewpoint: A quick primer on mean, median, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis of distributions. Plus, explaining negative market skewness, leptokurtic behavior of stock prices, etc. As always, we keep it easy to understand and non-intimidating.Mailbag: Captain Options asks, "Given the explosion of popularity in weekly options, I'm curious if Mark & Don think there is room for short-term realized volatility products. Would a weekly realized vol product even make sense at this point given the short time frame of the product? Can you generate a worthwhile calculation of volatility in such a short time frame?"Crystal Ball: S&P, Nasdaq, and commodity Vol outlook. Euro VolContracts outlook. What's coming up at VolX and Option Pit?

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Option Block 94: AMZN Takes On AAPL

Trading Block: The market rallied on stronger than expected GDP numbers, and a little ease on European concerns, combined for a strong up move early in the day. Thirty-year rate is 4.01% — the lowest on record. Rumors of Amazon getting into the tablet wars — stock down 3%. With Amazon in its territory, Apple moved to the downside — is it time to be bullish? The spread between VIX and VXN continues to widen. Odd Block: Unusual activity in Dollar General (DG) – size call sales going up for the past couple of months. Dreamworks Animation Skg. (DWA) – been on a downside tear over most of the last year, as high as 38 early November last year, straight down since then, trading near 18 now. Looks like someone is trying to protect some downside and decided to put on the puts and end the free fall. Strategy Block: Mike Tosaw dispenses some vintage options wisdom, discussing the concept of dollar cost averaging. Around the Block: Ford hovering at the 10 strike. Apple earnings out October 18; CBOE earnings out October 5. A lot of energy stocks are at lower levels now.

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Option Block 93: Metal-Ocalypse Strikes Again

Trading Block: The relationship between VIX and VXN, how it could have helped you. Late session rally on European hopes. The Metal-pocalypse continues – where is the bottom? Sell-offs in both GLD and SLV. EK crushed to the downside…again — CDs upfront premium not at 41%! Groupon's ponzi scheme continues — restated their entire 2010 results and slashed revenue in half. Odd Block: Harry Winston Diamond Corp. (HWD); Hasbro, Inc. (HAS);Novagold Resources (NG)Xpress Block: Tim Navabi runs through the top moving stocks and commodities over at OX today. Also a little overview on the use of settled and unsettled funds. Around The Block: Jobless claims on Thursday as well as GDP. Greek debt still on the horizon. The bulk of today's rally come after the lessening of those concerns, but the outlook on that changes frequently — things could get either really good or really bad.

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Volatility Views 24: Precious Metals Volatility Explosion

Volatility Views 24: Precious Metals Volatility Explosion

Volatility Review: The markets are turning green after a recent sea of red. A huge sell-off in gold and silver — the story here is that people are rolling out of gold and precious Metals and keeping funds in cash to be in a position to buy the market when it reaches the bottom. VIX review — volatility certainly got scary for a little while. Euro vol review. Mailbag: 1. "I've been listening to the show for some time and have become intrigued by the concept of VolContracts. I think I have a decent handle on the differences between implied versus realized volatility and I'm ready to take the next step. But that's where I'm stuck. How do I trade VolContracts? I don't see them promoted or even mentioned by any brokerage firms. If I call or email my broker (Interactive Brokers), are they even going to know what I'm talking about? Do you have any brokers that you'd recommend for their expertise with VolContracts? Also, since they are listed by the CME and track realized vol of Euro futures, I assume that I will need a futures account to trade them. Lastly, are these listed on Globex so I can trade them electronically or do I need to put an order into a pit?" 2. "Bob Krause advocated the use of volatility cones on a recent show, and I know Don has discussed them in the past as well. However, Mark made an excellent point in a recent episode that, in this environment, vol cones may not be the best barometer for where you should work your orders. It got me wondering if maybe there were certain market environments where vol cones were extremely useful, and other times, such as the current environment, when waiting for mean reversion is the quickest way to blowing out. Long Term Capital immediately comes to mind. I'm wondering what you guys think on this issue. I think I know where Mark stands, but I wonder where Don falls on this since I know he is an ardent fan of vol cones." Crystal Ball: Metal vols — have we just witnessed the bottom of gold and silver? Mark Sebastian predicts VIX to hit 50 in the next three weeks. We are halfway through the Oct VolContract, and as of Thursday the contract settled at 15.87 — you would need 18 volatility on the Euro, going forward, to justify that price.

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Volatility Views 24: Precious Metals Volatility Explosion

Volatility Views 24: Precious Metals Volatility Explosion

Volatility Review: The markets are turning green after a recent sea of red. A huge sell-off in gold and silver — the story here is that people are rolling out of gold and precious Metals and keeping funds in cash to be in a position to buy the market when it reaches the bottom. VIX review — volatility certainly got scary for a little while. Euro vol review. Mailbag: 1. "I've been listening to the show for some time and have become intrigued by the concept of VolContracts. I think I have a decent handle on the differences between implied versus realized volatility and I'm ready to take the next step. But that's where I'm stuck. How do I trade VolContracts? I don't see them promoted or even mentioned by any brokerage firms. If I call or email my broker (Interactive Brokers), are they even going to know what I'm talking about? Do you have any brokers that you'd recommend for their expertise with VolContracts? Also, since they are listed by the CME and track realized vol of Euro futures, I assume that I will need a futures account to trade them. Lastly, are these listed on Globex so I can trade them electronically or do I need to put an order into a pit?" 2. "Bob Krause advocated the use of volatility cones on a recent show, and I know Don has discussed them in the past as well. However, Mark made an excellent point in a recent episode that, in this environment, vol cones may not be the best barometer for where you should work your orders. It got me wondering if maybe there were certain market environments where vol cones were extremely useful, and other times, such as the current environment, when waiting for mean reversion is the quickest way to blowing out. Long Term Capital immediately comes to mind. I'm wondering what you guys think on this issue. I think I know where Mark stands, but I wonder where Don falls on this since I know he is an ardent fan of vol cones." Crystal Ball: Metal vols — have we just witnessed the bottom of gold and silver? Mark Sebastian predicts VIX to hit 50 in the next three weeks. We are halfway through the Oct VolContract, and as of Thursday the contract settled at 15.87 — you would need 18 volatility on the Euro, going forward, to justify that price.

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