Volatility Views 36: The VIX vs. Black Swan: Analyzing Tail Risk in the VIX

Volatility Views 36: The VIX vs. Black Swan: Analyzing Tail Risk in the VIX

Volatility Review: Another interesting week in general volatility. Although predicted to settle around the new mean of 23-25, VIX is down to 19. Where will it go next? CBOE has finally put out an adjustment to their settlement process. Euro VolContract review. Volatility Viewpoint: This week's guest, Nikunj Kapadia from UMass, sits down with Mark and Bob to discuss Black Swans, volatility pricing, tail risk, and buy-writes.Crystal Ball: VIX may be headed towards 19 from heavy pressure on VIX Jan and Feb futures. Could we really see an explosion to the upside? Big news at VolX!

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Volatility Views 36: The VIX vs. Black Swan: Analyzing Tail Risk in the VIX

Volatility Views 36: The VIX vs. Black Swan: Analyzing Tail Risk in the VIX

Volatility Review: Another interesting week in general volatility. Although predicted to settle around the new mean of 23-25, VIX is down to 19. Where will it go next? CBOE has finally put out an adjustment to their settlement process. Euro VolContract review. Volatility Viewpoint: This week's guest, Nikunj Kapadia from UMass, sits down with Mark and Bob to discuss Black Swans, volatility pricing, tail risk, and buy-writes.Crystal Ball: VIX may be headed towards 19 from heavy pressure on VIX Jan and Feb futures. Could we really see an explosion to the upside? Big news at VolX!

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Volatility Views 35: Aggressively Selling Volatility in the New Year

Volatility Views 35: Aggressively Selling Volatility in the New Year

Volatility Review: After a holiday hiatus, Mark, Don, and Mark Sebastian discuss and review current and upcoming vol in 2012. The $64,000 question: Why is vol getting crushed? What's happening in the Euro zone? Volatility Viewpoint: A grab bag of volatility topics in this viewpoint section, including: VIX futures–how they trade, the nature of their term structure, contango, etc., and actual realized vol in the market for the past year. Mailbag: Best method of volatility measurement? Crystal Ball: Vol, S&P, VIX, EuroVol Contracts, and Jan futures–where are they moving this year? A few new contracts may be in the pipeline over at VolX.

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Volatility Views 35: Aggressively Selling Volatility in the New Year

Volatility Views 35: Aggressively Selling Volatility in the New Year

Volatility Review: After a holiday hiatus, Mark, Don, and Mark Sebastian discuss and review current and upcoming vol in 2012. The $64,000 question: Why is vol getting crushed? What's happening in the Euro zone? Volatility Viewpoint: A grab bag of volatility topics in this viewpoint section, including: VIX futures–how they trade, the nature of their term structure, contango, etc., and actual realized vol in the market for the past year. Mailbag: Best method of volatility measurement? Crystal Ball: Vol, S&P, VIX, EuroVol Contracts, and Jan futures–where are they moving this year? A few new contracts may be in the pipeline over at VolX.

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Volatility Views 34: A Break from the Insanity

Volatility Views 34: A Break from the Insanity

Volatility Review: This was an intriguing week for volatility action. Strange week in the world of VIX, with it finally returning to "normal." The novel concept of being fully insured. The seasonality of VIX–general uptrend in market plus professionals taking money off the table equals a perfect storm in VIX. Euro VolContract updates–December one-month went out at 11.12, three-month at 12.84.Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don discuss volatility with Stephen Figlewski, Professor of Finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, founding editor of the Journal of Derivatives, and Director at the Nasdaq OMX Derivatives Research Project.Crystal Ball: VIX at a much more tolerable level, but Mark thinks it will vacillate in this "new mean" for quite a while. January Euro VolContract is fairly new, but volatility is forecasted to be lower going out.

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Volatility Views 34: A Break from the Insanity

Volatility Views 34: A Break from the Insanity

Volatility Review: This was an intriguing week for volatility action. Strange week in the world of VIX, with it finally returning to "normal." The novel concept of being fully insured. The seasonality of VIX–general uptrend in market plus professionals taking money off the table equals a perfect storm in VIX. Euro VolContract updates–December one-month went out at 11.12, three-month at 12.84.Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don discuss volatility with Stephen Figlewski, Professor of Finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, founding editor of the Journal of Derivatives, and Director at the Nasdaq OMX Derivatives Research Project.Crystal Ball: VIX at a much more tolerable level, but Mark thinks it will vacillate in this "new mean" for quite a while. January Euro VolContract is fairly new, but volatility is forecasted to be lower going out.

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Volatility Views 33: The Art of Managing Volatility

Volatility Views 33: The Art of Managing Volatility

Volatility Review: VIX has been up and down around the 30-handle, but now it is time for it to begin to settle at a more normal level. Friday was quarterly expiration day in the Euro VoContract futures, with the front one-month and the December three-month going out. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest, Chris Cole, Managing Director at Artemis Capital Management, sits down to discuss VIX options and futures, volatility doldrums, and the trading approach at Artemis. Crystal Ball: VIX is a coin flip with regard to both the long-term and short-term mean. The gang looks at the January one-month and March quarterly Euro VolContracts and their implied volatilities versus potential realized vol.

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Volatility Views 33: The Art of Managing Volatility

Volatility Views 33: The Art of Managing Volatility

Volatility Review: VIX has been up and down around the 30-handle, but now it is time for it to begin to settle at a more normal level. Friday was quarterly expiration day in the Euro VoContract futures, with the front one-month and the December three-month going out. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest, Chris Cole, Managing Director at Artemis Capital Management, sits down to discuss VIX options and futures, volatility doldrums, and the trading approach at Artemis. Crystal Ball: VIX is a coin flip with regard to both the long-term and short-term mean. The gang looks at the January one-month and March quarterly Euro VolContracts and their implied volatilities versus potential realized vol.

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Volatility Views 32: Larry the Legend

Volatility Views 32: Larry the Legend

Volatility Review: Last week saw a lot of volatility action. VIX downside positions are just starting to pan out. Are people buying insurance or are they buying gamma? Seasonal drain to volatility. Euro VolContract update–one week left to go in the front-month contract.Volatility Viewpoints: Larry McMillan, recent winner of The OIC's Sullivan Award, discusses how volatility derivatives have changed the landscape of vol trading. Larry waxes nostalgic on the days when there weren't puts on every stock. The virtues of upside VIX calls versus SPX puts to hedge a portfolio. Discussing the fine art of gamma scalping.Crystal Ball: Wild prognosticating from the panel. The market will have trouble supporting current vol levels. Sebastian likes buy-write opportunities in gold right now. Larry still has a bullish bias to the market. With expiration week for the front month upon us, Don sees Euro vol settling at around 12.40-12.75.

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Volatility Views 32: Larry the Legend

Volatility Views 32: Larry the Legend

Volatility Review: Last week saw a lot of volatility action. VIX downside positions are just starting to pan out. Are people buying insurance or are they buying gamma? Seasonal drain to volatility. Euro VolContract update–one week left to go in the front-month contract.Volatility Viewpoints: Larry McMillan, recent winner of The OIC's Sullivan Award, discusses how volatility derivatives have changed the landscape of vol trading. Larry waxes nostalgic on the days when there weren't puts on every stock. The virtues of upside VIX calls versus SPX puts to hedge a portfolio. Discussing the fine art of gamma scalping.Crystal Ball: Wild prognosticating from the panel. The market will have trouble supporting current vol levels. Sebastian likes buy-write opportunities in gold right now. Larry still has a bullish bias to the market. With expiration week for the front month upon us, Don sees Euro vol settling at around 12.40-12.75.

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Volatility Views 31: Live from Las Vegas

Volatility Views 31: Live from Las Vegas

Volatility Review: It's been a rough week for the equity markets. With the weekend decay out, and the super committee's report due this week, is it time to buy or sell the VIX? Is leverage causing a rise in volatility? What's going on with the Euro FX VolContract, and what does realized volatility look like right now? What's the latest news on the Dec one-month VolContract?Volatility Viewpoints: Bob talks about the long-term future of volatility, the volatility of volatility, and how efficiency affects the market. Also, Bob discusses his initial thoughts of the article in Futures magazine written last week.Crystal Ball: With the VIX at 33, we need the market to move 2% per day to pay for VIX. Is that possible, or are we looking at a potential meltdown? If we see the VolContract fall anywhere below 13%, should we be looking to get long FX vol?

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