Volatility Views 49: How Best to Price Variance and Volatility Swaps

Volatility Views 49: How Best to Price Variance and Volatility Swaps

Volatility Review: It's funny how it didn't take long for our prediction of a range-bound VIX to be proven wrong! The VVIX has been high. Is a tradable VIX of VIX in the works? What have the NASDAQ and SPX vol of vol six-month averages been? One-year? Don gives some remarkable numbers. Apple on the move downwards; some are eager to buy Apple at 600. NASDAQ vol cones, like most volatility readings, are at historical lows. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guests, Thomas Thorsen and Emil Stamp, are the authors of the master's thesis, "Pricing of Variance and Volatility Swaps in a Stochastic Volatility and Jump Framework." The gang discusses pricing models of OTC variance swaps, the different models the authors created, and the accuracy of the models for both forecasting realized volatility, as well as pricing of variance swaps and GARCH models in real-world applications.Crystal Ball: Are you still shorting the VIX? Are higher levels forecasted for the future? Perception versus reality.

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Volatility Views 49: How Best to Price Variance and Volatility Swaps

Volatility Views 49: How Best to Price Variance and Volatility Swaps

Volatility Review: It's funny how it didn't take long for our prediction of a range-bound VIX to be proven wrong! The VVIX has been high. Is a tradable VIX of VIX in the works? What have the NASDAQ and SPX vol of vol six-month averages been? One-year? Don gives some remarkable numbers. Apple on the move downwards; some are eager to buy Apple at 600. NASDAQ vol cones, like most volatility readings, are at historical lows. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guests, Thomas Thorsen and Emil Stamp, are the authors of the master's thesis, "Pricing of Variance and Volatility Swaps in a Stochastic Volatility and Jump Framework." The gang discusses pricing models of OTC variance swaps, the different models the authors created, and the accuracy of the models for both forecasting realized volatility, as well as pricing of variance swaps and GARCH models in real-world applications.Crystal Ball: Are you still shorting the VIX? Are higher levels forecasted for the future? Perception versus reality.

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Volatility Views 48: Masters of the VIX

Volatility Views 48: Masters of the VIX

Volatility Review: Not much vol action to report with the markets closed on recording day (Friday). Steep contango in VIX futures has lessened in the past few weeks. Long holiday weekend volatility didn't fully come out of VIX futures and index options, which is highly interesting and unusual. Also an unusual situation — unemployment numbers were released on a day when the market was closed. Don and Mark discuss contango. NASDAQ volatility update.Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don are joined by David Palmer, Volatility Book Portfolio Manager at Hudson Bay Capital. They discuss the evolution of skew, the growing market of products tied to VIX, and how they're manipulating the underlying, the halting of TVIX share creation, OTC versus listed trading, volatility arbitrage opportunities, rational arbitrage, and hedging and downside protection.Crystal Ball: Nothing to rant about in S&P land, at least until we reach the next unknown unknown. Summer doldrums are coming. The impact of having such low levels of realized volatility.

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Volatility Views 48: Masters of the VIX

Volatility Views 48: Masters of the VIX

Volatility Review: Not much vol action to report with the markets closed on recording day (Friday). Steep contango in VIX futures has lessened in the past few weeks. Long holiday weekend volatility didn't fully come out of VIX futures and index options, which is highly interesting and unusual. Also an unusual situation — unemployment numbers were released on a day when the market was closed. Don and Mark discuss contango. NASDAQ volatility update.Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don are joined by David Palmer, Volatility Book Portfolio Manager at Hudson Bay Capital. They discuss the evolution of skew, the growing market of products tied to VIX, and how they're manipulating the underlying, the halting of TVIX share creation, OTC versus listed trading, volatility arbitrage opportunities, rational arbitrage, and hedging and downside protection.Crystal Ball: Nothing to rant about in S&P land, at least until we reach the next unknown unknown. Summer doldrums are coming. The impact of having such low levels of realized volatility.

read more
Volatility Views 47: How Dynamic Volatility Can Reshape Your Portfolio

Volatility Views 47: How Dynamic Volatility Can Reshape Your Portfolio

Volatility Review: VIX review, with interesting corresponding elements relative to VIX and VIX skew. Monday massive overreaction to the market rally. NASDAQ vol review, driven by AAPL, which is slowing down a bit. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Bob, and Mark are joined by Peter Christoffersen, Professor of Finance, Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, and author of Elements of Financial Risk Management and the forthcoming Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Prof. Christoffersen discusses dynamic volatility, the Sharpe ratio, and practical applications for the average investor. Mark asks Prof. Christoffersen whether it's possible to have a truly diversified portfolio without having some kind of volatility asset. He also discusses his research on skew and its impact on the underlying instrument. Crystal Ball: Looking deep into the murky ether of the future of volatility, Mark and Mark pontificate on the contango environment of VIX futures, with Sebastian seeing VIX staying between 14 and 17. Will AAPL vol come in? As AAPL goes, so goes the NASDAQ. There might be an increase in volatility post-Easter, with the beginning of earnings season.

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Volatility Views 47: How Dynamic Volatility Can Reshape Your Portfolio

Volatility Views 47: How Dynamic Volatility Can Reshape Your Portfolio

Volatility Review: VIX review, with interesting corresponding elements relative to VIX and VIX skew. Monday massive overreaction to the market rally. NASDAQ vol review, driven by AAPL, which is slowing down a bit. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Bob, and Mark are joined by Peter Christoffersen, Professor of Finance, Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, and author of Elements of Financial Risk Management and the forthcoming Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Prof. Christoffersen discusses dynamic volatility, the Sharpe ratio, and practical applications for the average investor. Mark asks Prof. Christoffersen whether it's possible to have a truly diversified portfolio without having some kind of volatility asset. He also discusses his research on skew and its impact on the underlying instrument. Crystal Ball: Looking deep into the murky ether of the future of volatility, Mark and Mark pontificate on the contango environment of VIX futures, with Sebastian seeing VIX staying between 14 and 17. Will AAPL vol come in? As AAPL goes, so goes the NASDAQ. There might be an increase in volatility post-Easter, with the beginning of earnings season.

read more
Volatility Views 44: Listener Mail Extravaganza

Volatility Views 44: Listener Mail Extravaganza

Volatility Review: Vol is down and SPX is up. Even the news of the new iPad wasn't enough to boost the market. Don opines on Apple. Nasdaq vol still flat-lined. Euro vol — the 1-month and 3-month March contracts expire soon. Listener Mail: Nasdaq VolContracts, TVIX, the nature of VolContracts, and avoiding the VIX.Crystal Ball: Non-farms may be a non-event. Load up on VIX downside. Hopefully the Nasdaq vol can break out of this flat line and the other shoe will drop. Otherwise it's difficult to make any predictions.

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Volatility Views 44: Listener Mail Extravaganza

Volatility Views 44: Listener Mail Extravaganza

Volatility Review: Vol is down and SPX is up. Even the news of the new iPad wasn't enough to boost the market. Don opines on Apple. Nasdaq vol still flat-lined. Euro vol — the 1-month and 3-month March contracts expire soon. Listener Mail: Nasdaq VolContracts, TVIX, the nature of VolContracts, and avoiding the VIX.Crystal Ball: Non-farms may be a non-event. Load up on VIX downside. Hopefully the Nasdaq vol can break out of this flat line and the other shoe will drop. Otherwise it's difficult to make any predictions.

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Volatility Views 43: Are Weekly Options Ruining Volatility?

Volatility Views 43: Are Weekly Options Ruining Volatility?

Volatility Review: The VIX was gaining ground again, but became mired in a holding pattern. What was the cause of the influx of capital in TVIX? NASDAQ vol is still flat-lining. Euro vol review.Volatility Viewpoint: Sanjay Tolia of Bengal Capital is the featured guest. A great conversation included questions such as: Are high levels of correlation taking away from single-stock option trading? Are high levels of correlation taking away from running balanced volatility portfolios? Are VIX products good or bad for retail investors? Are weekly options good or bad for retail clients? Is their explosive growth good for the industry?Crystal Ball: Until people start hitting the bid or lifting offers, VIX levels are going to stay in this range. Expect a similar stall in NASDAQ. Don predicts that Euro vol expiration settlement price next week will be lower than the 10.27 of Thursday night, and will settle in the mid-9s.

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Volatility Views 43: Are Weekly Options Ruining Volatility?

Volatility Views 43: Are Weekly Options Ruining Volatility?

Volatility Review: The VIX was gaining ground again, but became mired in a holding pattern. What was the cause of the influx of capital in TVIX? NASDAQ vol is still flat-lining. Euro vol review.Volatility Viewpoint: Sanjay Tolia of Bengal Capital is the featured guest. A great conversation included questions such as: Are high levels of correlation taking away from single-stock option trading? Are high levels of correlation taking away from running balanced volatility portfolios? Are VIX products good or bad for retail investors? Are weekly options good or bad for retail clients? Is their explosive growth good for the industry?Crystal Ball: Until people start hitting the bid or lifting offers, VIX levels are going to stay in this range. Expect a similar stall in NASDAQ. Don predicts that Euro vol expiration settlement price next week will be lower than the 10.27 of Thursday night, and will settle in the mid-9s.

read more