Welcome to our latest episode of The Futures Rundown brought to you by T4 Futures and Options.
With your host Mark Longo and guest Carley Garner.
The Contract Specs Segment
- A deep dive into all things SOFR
- What is it
- Trading Hours
- Pricing
- SOFR Packs and Bundles
- And much more
TRANSCRIPT
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The futures markets can be downright scary.
Limit up, limit down.
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And now it’s time to break into the futures markets.
It’s time for the Futures Rundown.
All right everybody, welcome back to the Futures Rundown.
Everyone’s favorite new addition to the network.
Glad to see so many folks are enjoying it.
It really does make us happy.
We got a lot of effort to launch these new shows for you.
And when folks respond so overwhelmingly, it just warms the old cockles of the heart.
My name of course, Mark Longo from the ever expanding network that so many of you folks are enjoying.
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First off, if you like what you hear, make sure you’re throwing a like, a star, a comment.
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You want to get two additional shows and entirely exclusive podcast feed just for you.
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As we learn who’s joining us on the old program today, I’m pleased to welcome back our old pal futures author extraordinaire.
And another than miss Carly Garner.
Carly, welcome back to the futures rundown two weeks in a row.
Amazing.
Hi, Mark.
Thank you for having me.
You like that author extraordinaire?
I love that.
I’m going to put that on my business card.
Author extraordinaire.
All right, Carly, this is your last chance to back out.
I will say we’ve had a great array of guests on the show over the last two months.
Very knowledgeable folks on a wide array of subjects.
When I mentioned we got this question about a month ago.
I think you’re on the show with me when we got it.
And I’ve mentioned it to a few of our guests in the interim, quite a few of them actually.
I said, hey, we have some questions about Sofer.
We’re thinking about doing a deep dive into Sofer.
What do you think you want to join us?
And the answer invariably Carly was I think I’m busy that day.
Oh, yeah, man, I’m good.
So Sofer just seems to be one of those products.
It is impenetrable or off putting or maybe both even to a lot of people who live and die in the futures world.
Even people who trade a lot of rates.
Sofer is just a beast unto itself.
So what I’m saying Carly is I’m legally obligated.
I have to be here.
You don’t have to.
So are you sure you want to go through with this?
I think I’ve changed my mind.
Okay, I understand.
I understand.
I’ll tap out.
It’s too late though.
I’ve shut the door behind you Carly because it is time for the contract specs.
Have you ever looked at a futures product and said what the heck is that?
Let’s find out together.
It’s time to get the contract specs.
All right listeners, as I mentioned strap in our holiday extravaganza going deep into the product that mystifies and terrifies everyone apparently.
Yes, it is.
Sofer.
Three month sofa.
Just strap in listeners.
It’s going to be some alphabet and some acronym soup in this one.
So just get ready for it.
If you’re wondering why are we going deep into sofa?
A lot of folks have been asking including most recently one of our pro members Chris Lovell wrote this in.
He says hi.
He was in town apparently said I wore my red options insider shirt.
He won in a pro trading crate on the Sal Street.
Listen, yeah, just side note listeners.
You want to get in the pro.
You want to get a chance to win those pro trading crates.
They are pretty cool.
Then you too can wear your gear all up and down the Sal Street just like Chris did.
He said I was looking for your studio to take a picture in front of it.
But he did find some others including bar chart and Citadel in the area.
Yeah, there’s no big sign.
We try to keep it low key, but we are right across from the former Boeing headquarters.
Boeing is still on the building.
So you can’t find us there.
He writes as for the futures run.
I loves the new show.
He’s morphed into a futures options trader where there you go.
So I would love hearing about the nuances of the underlying futures.
Would you please do a deep dive into all things.
So for Molto Grazi, Chris, well, we can do that for you, Chris, just because you asked so nicely.
Let me kick it off with a little bit of a history lesson.
Carly, then I want to get your thoughts on kind of what you’re seeing right now in terms of the use case, how many of your clients are really beaten down the door with with questions about so far.
But our listeners clearly are, which again shows you just the evolution of this audience listeners.
There are not a lot of pros who want to go deep into all things.
So for you folks stand out amongst the multitudes out here.
So if you’re saying to yourself, I’m not, I don’t really know what that is.
Three months so far, you’re probably familiar with the previous incarnation or iteration of this product, which was Euro dollars.
Everyone’s kind of familiar with that concept.
It’s just a dollar deposit held in Europe pretty much.
And the interest you’re getting on that.
That’s pretty much the root of all of this stuff.
But you’re saying that’s not what we’re talking about.
No, we’re not talking about that because the Euro dollar was effectively phased out in favor of this new product called SOFR, S-O-F-R, which stands for the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
It effectively measures the cost to borrow US dollars overnight using Treasury securities as a collateral.
Now, a lot of reasons that were behind the shift away from the Euro dollars.
You probably have heard in the early 2000s into the mid 2000s about the LIBOR scandal.
If you hadn’t heard about that, just type that into your Google machine.
You can read all about it.
There were a legion of lawsuits that were settled over whether LIBOR, which is of course the London Interbake Offered Rate, which was pricing a lot of these Euro dollars deposits and the options and futures as a result, whether it was being manipulated.
And so as a result, people started to lick a scant on LIBOR and the products associated with it back in 2014.
So we’re going back a decade now.
Back in 2014, the Fed created a committee called the Alternative Reference Rates Committee, AKA the ARRC.
Again, alphabet soup coming at you.
This is your fair warning.
There was their job to identify an alternative to LIBOR.
And as they say, after extensive research, they came up with the secured overnight financing rate in June of 2017.
That was what they chose as their preferred alternative for the US marketplace to LIBOR.
As a result, three months SOFR products were launched back in 2018.
They replaced LIBOR and they started phasing them out over time.
Over a Euro dollars really were officially phased out as of June 30th of last year, which is why if you go over there now, there’s some vestigial positions, but there’s no new positions out there in Euro dollars.
All right.
So that’s our history lesson.
Carly, you have anything to add to that in terms of the origins of SOFR?
And then B, I’m curious for you, you’re dealing with a lot of clients over there day in, day out.
How hot is SOFR with your clients?
I guess the thing I’m asking is why did you agree to come on the show car?
Well, there’s a couple of things to mention here.
So SOFR futures, as you mentioned, replace your dollars because of basically the removal of LIBOR rate as the risk-free rate that banks use to loan money.
The true purpose or the true use of SR3 or SOFR futures is to hedge interest rates.
So to be honest, we don’t have a lot of clients that trade them that often.
You’ll notice it’s the most liquid contract in the world.
There’s maybe five to six million contracts traded a day.
So obviously people are trading it, but if you look at the nitty gritty, it’s usually really large institutions hedging their interest rate price risk.
Somebody like you and I, well, I don’t know your financial situation, but I personally don’t have several hundred million or billions of dollars sitting in a money market fund or in T-bills or some sort of interest rate product that I need to hedge using this product.
So for me, I think it’s a really awesome speculative vehicle and I encourage our clients to trade it because the margin is so low.
It’s less than $1,000.
It’s about $850 for the front month contract.
Margins do go higher if you go to the back months, but somebody that’s just getting started in trading can look at this product and actually get their feet wet without doing too much damage.
They’re not going to, you know, they’re not going to change their lifestyle and get rich overnight if they’re on the right side of the trade, but they’re not going to lose their shirt either.
So it’s a really great introductory product.
And my favorite part about it is it allows people to participate in strategies that would maybe otherwise be too risky for their account.
For example, you can go long or short futures and you can hedge with long options with very, very, very little risk.
Now, the odds of you hitting a home run and making a ton of money aren’t great, but the ability to practice that kind of a strategy with such a low maximum risk is just an amazing opportunity.
So I love SoForFutures not because it’s the most efficient way for most of us to hedge our interest rate price risk, but because it’s a really great starter tool for those trying to get into futures trading.
I love how you call it a great starter product because I think for most people this is too intimidating to even break.
Allow me to do, if you will, Carly, a dramatic reading from CME’s own website.
This is just one of their many little segments they have up there to try to explain what these products are and what you’re trading out there.
This is from the price quotation section of the contract specs.
You can see why so many people decided they were busy today, Carly, when you hear stuff like this.
So this is what they thought would be penetrable for people out there.
Allow me to put on my dramatic reading voice.
Here we go.
All right.
Price quotation.
Contract grade IMM index equals 100 minus R.
R equals business day, compounded, secured, overnight financing rate, parentheses, SOFR and parentheses per annum during contract reference quarter, reference quarter for a given contract interval from parentheses and including and parentheses third Wednesday of third month preceding delivery month to parentheses and not including and parentheses of delivery month.
Well, Carly, there you go.
That says it all.
Why can anyone have any questions?
I don’t understand.
OK, I would see these people that write this stuff are a lot smarter than I am and they have much more technical brains.
I keep it very, very, very simple.
The SOFR is basically it’s almost identical to the Fed funds futures.
Most people are aware of what the Fed funds are because the Federal Reserve sets that overnight borrowing rate.
The difference between the Fed funds and the SOFR is the SOFR is freely floating, whereas the Fed funds rate is set by the Fed.
And also the Fed funds rate has no collateral and SOFR is backed by T-bills.
So to be 100% honest, it’s kind of semantics if we start picking.
I mean, for our purposes, if you’re hedging a billion dollar portfolio, it’s different.
You probably need to know all that, all those specifics.
But for retail traders and speculators like most of us are, we don’t need to know that.
All we need to know is basically we’re trading a short term interest rate.
You can even think of it.
This isn’t a perfect relationship, but you can even think of it as trading T-bills.
Now somebody that’s really specific is going to argue with me on that and they’re right.
But the reality is for our purposes, I mean, we’re talking differences of tenths of an interest rate on a futures contract of half of a tick or a tick, which is $25.
So it’s really meaningless for our purposes.
So the simplest way to think about it is you’re basically trading T-bill interest rates.
That’s not 100% accurate, but it’s accurate enough for our purposes.
And so if you see the rate that you see on the SR3, if it’s at, let’s say, like 95, 52.5, to get the yield that that is inferring, you take 100 minus 95, 52.5, or let’s just round it to 95.50.
If it’s at 95.50, then that’s a yield of 4.5%.
That’s by taking 100 minus 95.50, 4.5%.
So it’s priced like a discount bond.
And to figure out how much you’re making or losing, it’s $25 per tick.
You’re not going to see these things move very quickly throughout the day, most of the time.
You’re going to see one tick at the most, maybe two.
On a really busy day, you might see two or three points, but it’s a very slow mover.
It’s like watching paint dry, which is, again, why it’s really great for beginning traders.
So don’t be intimidated by all the crazy equations.
You really don’t even need to know that much detail.
Yeah, you got to love when they throw the equations into the spec.
Those are a red flag.
That’s just scaring people off.
So you’re kind of right.
There are simpler ways to look at it.
If you do like to go a little bit deeper, let’s just do it really quickly for you.
But what are they even talking about in some of that jargon and equations and throwing variables at you?
You heard that equation.
I am an index.
What the hell is that?
That is the international money market index out there.
So that’s what they’re calculating this value off.
Again, you’re going to hear a lot of alphabet soup in this one, listener.
So just a strap in.
Also, you should refresh yourself if you’re not familiar with kind of the nuances of a lot of rates products.
They’re mostly quoted in basis points.
Remember, basis point is 0.01 percent.
So you’re going to hear a lot about that and also the basis point value of some of these contracts out here.
But that money market rate is international money market rate is pretty easy to calculate, actually.
They kind of give you it sounds crazy the way they write it here, but it really is just 100 minus effectively whatever a SOFR is trading out.
And let’s say SOFR is hanging out at exactly 4 percent right now.
So you have the one to calculate that IMN index is 100 minus R, which is the SOFR rate.
Again, it’s obtuse nomenclature, but that’s what they’re throwing at you here.
So in that case, it would be 4 percent from 100.
So 96 would be your IMM.
And that’s what you’re pricing your SOFR contracts on out there.
Now I mentioned basis points.
You’re going to be concerned about basis point values with these contracts.
So you’re going to see BPV thrown around a lot.
That is your basis point value.
You’re also going to see another acronym DV01.
Again, they’re just really trying to confuse you with listeners.
That is the dollar value of one basis point for a move in the yield out here.
So one basis point move in the three months SOFR contract typically equates to $25.
So just bear that in mind.
So we were just talking about before we were calculating these rates out here using that index.
So let’s say we were at 4 percent like we just calculated it before.
By the way, these move inversely to yield.
SOFR moves inversely to yield.
So bear that in mind.
So let’s say in our example, SOFR is hanging out at 4 percent and then it moved up to 4.1 percent.
In our example, what happens to your position right there?
So you have just a straight up SOFR position out here.
It moves a tenth of a percent.
So it’s going to decrease by $250.
Remember, you move a tenth of a percent, aka 10 basis points.
Each 10 basis point, $250.
So you’re moving $250 in the value of that position.
Carly, anything to add there in terms of the basis point, the basis point value, all the madness they might be confused about like the IMN index and all that fun.
One other, if anyone that’s ever read any type of finance book or went to college for finance related fields, they’ve probably heard, I’m sure they’ve heard of the risk free rate.
The SOFR is basically the risk free rate.
So if somebody goes into a bank and borrows money, in order for the bank to make money, they know they have to charge something above and beyond the risk free rate.
So that’s really what this product is all about, allowing big institutions and banks to hedge their business operations based on the risk free rate.
So that might be another way to think about it.
You would also, once again, I’m going to just throw this out there.
I know it’s not absolutely correct, but the risk free, the T-bills, treasury bills are generally referred to as the risk free rate as well.
So you’re not going to see any really big discrepancies between Fed funds rate, SR3, and T-bills.
They’re all roughly the same thing, just different products.
SR3 is the most liquid product to speculate on those, that type of interest rate.
So that’s the one to go to.
But I wouldn’t get caught up in the details because from a monetary standpoint, those types of things aren’t going to change your P&L much.
I mean, maybe $6.25 or something crazy like that, but it’s not meaningful.
So don’t get bogged down on the details and the confusing things.
My suggestion is keep it very simple and just understand that you’re trading the par value.
Par value of any type of discount bond is $100.
So it’s the par value minus the current interest rate.
That’s the value of the bond and keep it simple.
That’s my mantra.
I usually agree with the kiss to keep it simple, stupid out there.
And I agree with you on this, except for right now, Carly, where we’re going to go a little deeper in the moment just to kind of dispel some, because you mentioned something else I can’t ignore, you know, the 6.2.
I love the fact that we’re talking teenies and eighths again, just as an aside, Carly.
That brings me back to my old market making days when everything was quoted in sixteenths and eighths and your value as a market maker was determined by how quickly you could do those fractions in your head.
Carly, at the end of the day, it was very important, high level basic math that determined a lot of what we did out there in products like the SPX.
But you mentioned some of those ticks and we just hit those quickly because Carly, I think they decided this product was too straightforward.
It was too easy to understand.
So they had to mess with the ticks even more.
So you mentioned the 16th, but actually the typical minimum tick for these contracts is going to be one half of a basis point.
There you go, listeners, which turns out, remember, a basis point is 25 bucks.
So one half of that is going to be one eighth of a dollar or $12.50.
Yes, one eighth, .125, one of the old fractions and decimals I did a lot with back in the day.
But you know what?
That’s too straightforward.
They can’t keep things standard throughout the life of a contract.
No.
So as we approach expiration with the three months over contract listeners, that minimum tick size is going to change once you get within the four month window heading into expiration.
Guess what?
That minimum tick gets cut in half again to what Carly was just talking about.
The .0625 aka 1/16 for the last four months of expiration.
So Carly, I’m going to put you on the spot.
Riddle us that.
Why that extra level of obfuscation just for our listeners, Carly?
Why?
Well, I wish I had a good answer for you.
If you think this is fun, wait till you start looking at what they’ve done to Treasury bonds and Treasury options, which are quoted in different sizes of fractions.
Yeah, the units out here are kind of fun.
We may have to do a second episode down the road, Carly.
This might be part one of all things.
Because it’s a lot a lot to come to grips with, including this, Carly.
We’ve gotten this far into the episode.
We haven’t even really touched on this.
We keep saying three months.
So for three months.
So for why are we saying that?
Why is it three months?
Why isn’t it just a one month over contract, Carly?
There actually is a one month sofa contract.
It’s less liquid, but it does exist.
So if for whatever reason you need to hedge your personal T bill holdings for the next 30 days, that’s the one to use.
But the three months over typically lines up with the more traditional use case, correct?
Correct.
Yes.
Three month is honestly, it’s better for hedger’s and speculators.
Thus it has a lot more trading volume.
So yes, Carly is correct.
There is indeed a one month contract.
Not quite as liquid as the big dog, the three months sofa.
And talking about liquid, this product is a beast.
I mean, it really does.
We joke about how obtuse it is.
And for the lion’s share of you out there, it probably is.
But that doesn’t stop it from putting up numbers.
You know, ridiculous numbers, millions upon millions of contracts every week out there in the futures and in the options.
So three months sofa, a very much a beast out there.
Obviously a lot of that is big institutional paper trying to hedge and speculate around these very minute fluctuations in rates.
So it’s going to drive a lot of flow at the end of the day.
And a lot of that use case, again, lines up to what we were saying earlier about those three month, that three month time span.
Speaking of the traditional use case, if you go pull up a sofa right now, sofa options chain looking at the futures, you’ll see what may also be surprising and or intimidating to you is an array of colors.
So if it’s not enough that they’re throwing at you months and series going all the way out 10 years.
Yes, we’re talking about near dated fluctuations in rates.
And yet these contracts go out 10 years.
So if that wasn’t enough to really just throw you for a loop listeners.
They’re also going to throw you an array of different colors.
They do that to try to simplify some of these products and also a bundle them together, put them effectively what they call packs out there because people are going to use these usually as strips.
Maybe they want to sell the again going out 10 years.
Maybe they want to sell the first four quarterlies in the three months sofa for the first year.
So each one of those four against maybe a loan that they have maturing and they want to sell each quarter against a different portion maybe of that loan.
So they want to sell all those together.
So those were collectively called the whites out there.
Then it changes every year.
The two years are the reds, three years green, four years blue, five years gold, six years purple, seven years orange, eight years pink, nine years is silver.
You go all the way out 10 years listeners aka the 37th through the 40th quarterly expirations.
Those are the copper.
That’s the copper pack.
So that lines up with a lot of institutional use cases.
Maybe they come in and they have some loans they’re working with that all are in that two year timeframe.
So maybe they want to sell that red pack.
Maybe they want to sell the gold pack going out five years.
Maybe they want to do a little bit of trading.
Maybe they want to do the golds against the red.
So this eases some of the institutional use case out there.
It prevents them from having to let’s say leg into four different quarterly options just to get a trade off.
Obviously, if you know anything about legging trades, there’s a lot of risk there.
They don’t want to take that.
This eases the transition.
This makes it all quotable and one easy to understand package.
You can also spread them much easier.
You’re talking instead of having to leg into eight individual options, you can just do the different packs against each other.
So it tends to ease the use case.
Carly, any thoughts about the different colors out there and how they could sometimes look intimidating to newer sofas traders?
Those colors are intimidating for me and I’ve been doing this for over two decades.
So again, I’ll say I’m really glad that you brought this topic up so that when people run across it, they understand the concept of it.
But I don’t think for most speculators, I think this is, you know, don’t focus on these types of things.
Focus a little more on the position at hand, what the margin is, what your trading strategy is, what’s going to trigger your signals, that sort of thing.
This type of stuff is very confusing and it’s going to cause people to, and again, I’m glad that you mentioned it.
I’m not criticizing you at all.
I’m just saying, you know, we don’t want to have some sort of paralysis or analysis paralysis going through people’s head because that’s what these products do.
They’re very intimidating on the surface.
But I think once you start trading them, you start to realize they’re actually probably the simplest products to trade on the board.
I like it.
The simplest products to trade on the board.
As I thought, Carly, we’re already out of time.
So we are going to probably have to do down the road in episode two, because A, we didn’t get to everything we didn’t get to, let’s say mid curve options or some of the other crazier stuff out there.
I think the notion of just the different expirations, Carly, for a lot of people trading a near dated option against a longer term future and vice versa kind of blows their minds.
There’s a lot of playing with expirations here.
In general, these are near dated rates we’re talking about, yet we’re going out 10 years.
That also blows a lot of people’s minds.
The changing of ticks, all these things.
So I think we need to do a follow up down the road a little bit, maybe get into some more of these concepts in a little bit more detail.
I’m sure our listeners are also going to have a ton of, they already do, just to kick off this episode.
I’m sure they’re going to have a ton of questions after listening to this.
Why is that the case?
Why is that the case?
Again, I’m legally obligated to answer them, Carly.
If you want to dodge it, I understand.
That said, I think there will have to be a sofer.
Let’s call this one, everything you always want to know about sofer, part one.
More to come out here, listeners.
But Carly, if folks in the meantime have a lot of questions and they clearly do about sofer, you’re saying it’s one of the more, once she come to grips with it, it’s one of the easier to understand products on the board.
Folks want to understand it.
Where should they go?
What should they do?
It is.
Visit us at decarlytrading.com.
We’re also on the socials.
You can check us at X, @CarlyGarner is the handle.
That’s @CarlyGarner.
Listeners, G-A-R-N-E-R, all one word over there.
On the old Twitter, she tweets out a lot of good stuff, so make sure you’re following her over there.
And while you’re searching for things online, make sure you type T4 futures and options into Google.
That’ll get you to our friends over there at CTS Futures.
You got a free month.
Can’t go wrong with that.
Maybe you want to start nibbling.
Maybe this episode emboldened you to want to dive deep and begin your own sofer journey.
Maybe you’d have said, “You know what?
This stuff is impenetrable.
It’s not for me.”
I get you either way.
We’re not going to judge you on the show list.
Trust me.
I’ve talked to a lot of futures professionals who want nothing to do with this product, so you are not alone.
But if you’re one of the brave few, maybe you want to venture over there to T4 Futures and Options and give it a try for yourself.
As Carly said, you can keep it simple.
The relative hit to your P&L of things to go against you is fairly modest, so it’s not going to run you over at the end of the day.
So if you can get past everything we just laid down there and a whole bunch more, then there certainly could be some appealing factors for you over there.
Check them out for yourselves.
T4 Futures and Options, tell them we sent you.
They’ll be very happy to hear from you.
And of course, that’s going to do it for us on this extra special holiday palooza.
So if you’re sitting there, you’re in a trip to Fancoma, you’re already a little groggy, then there you go.
A full half hour of all things so for it.
It really puts you to sleep.
But hey, you folks ask for it.
Don’t blame me.
You folks wanted it.
We deliver because we like you folks out there.
I’m sure you’re going to have more questions after listening to this.
So send them in.
We’ll probably do a follow up.
Go deeper.
Maybe get into some of the other elements of this product.
We talked through a few more examples.
Once you come to grips with it, as Carly said, it’s not as intimidating as it seems, but the first blush, some of the explanatory materials.
Watch out for the stuff on CME’s website listeners, even a lot of their videos out there.
Kind of impenetrable out there.
So you’re going to have to.
That’s why we tried to make it a little bit less intimidating for you on the show, but it’s going to take some time to come to grips with this.
Don’t worry.
That’s what we’re here for.
We’ll see you back here next week.
Another episode of the Futures rundown.
Stay safe out there.
Everybody.
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