Welcome to this episode of The Futures Rundown brought to you by T4 Futures and Options.
With your host Mark Longo and guest Dan Gramza.
The Trading Pit
- Looking at what is trading in the futures markets
Futures Free For All
- Takeaways from the election for the futures markets
- Breaking down the post-election action in metals, FX, rates, equities, energy, crypto
- Explanation of election prediction markets on venues like Kalshi and Robinhood
TRANSCRIPT
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The futures markets can be downright scary.
Limit up, limit down.
What the heck is our Bob anyway?
Are they going to dump a truckload of soybeans on your front lawn if you click the wrong button?
Come to think of it, maybe you should just stick to your comfort zone.
Or you can break out of it with the futures rundown.
The futures rundown is here to help you make sense of these scary markets.
We’ll analyze all the top futures trading activity, explore the ins and outs of your favorite products, explain exactly how futures work, and hear from leading experts in the futures markets.
If it involves futures, then you’ll hear about it on the futures rundown.
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And now it’s time to break into the futures markets.
It’s time for the futures rundown.
All right, everybody.
That music means we are back.
It is Wednesday, the newest doubleheader day on the network time once again for the futures rundown.
My name, of course, Marc Longo from the optionsinsider.com as well as from the network ever growing.
Hope you folks enjoyed and took the time to listen to our massive election night spectacular last night.
It really was some great stuff.
Stay tuned till the end.
Pro tip if you want some fun goodies.
Put a little money in your pocket.
You missed it.
It’ll be on on demand pretty soon as well.
It was a fun time joined by a bevy of special guests, including none other than our old pal, Mr.
Dan, the man, Gramsa from Gramsa Capital Management.
Mr.
Dan, welcome back to the show.
How goes it?
Have you recovered from our election night spectacular, sir?
Well, thank you very much, Marc.
I have to tell you, I thoroughly enjoyed exploring the markets and ideas of what was happening.
That was a lot of fun.
You had a great group of people you pulled together.
It was really, I really enjoyed it.
And I’m looking forward to today.
You know, we have what I call presidential anticipation markets.
This kind of movement is unusual.
So we have some interesting things to look at, but you know, Marc, it’s logical.
If you think about what’s up, what’s down, I think the pieces kind of fit together with what we’re going to be looking at.
All right, then let’s get to it, Dan, a little bit of I’ll let you pick your poison.
We have some questions about kind of election takeaways as well.
Do you want to go to the questions first?
You want to dive into the trading pit?
I’ll let you choose.
Well, hmm, if we, well, let’s go to the questions and then we can see if there’s any questions.
We’ll see answers in the markets as we look at.
I suppose we could do that.
All right, listeners, it is time to ring the bell for the Futures Free For All.
Ring the bell.
It’s time to take on all comers in an epic Q&A battle royale.
All questions can enter, but none can leave without an answer.
It’s time for the Futures Free For All.
All right, welcome to the Futures Free For All listeners.
A lot of fun out there.
You folks get to take the reins, your questions, your comments, hit us up at options on most major social media platforms.
Questions at the options insider.com also works.
I don’t need to tell you that clearly because you folks have been hitting us up in mass since this program launched.
So thanks for all your feedback, all your questions, all your comments.
Let’s get out to some of those right now.
One of them very timely, Mr.
Dan, something I was going to ask you anyway.
So Mr.
Beats just beat me to it.
Pun intended.
Mr.
Beats with the Z wants to know, do we have any takeaways from the election for Futures traders?
And Dan, I just got off our options bootcamp show where we talked about a lot of our takeaways from the election for options traders.
Spoiler alert, I was talking about maybe maybe don’t buy into the polls too much if we haven’t learned this by now.
We don’t know anything until the votes are actually counted even on the day itself.
So be careful fading or rallying anything heading into the election based on polls and be at the end of the day from an options perspective.
Nine times out of 10, you’re going to be happy just fading vol.
You don’t even need to predict direction.
Just fade vol.
You’re going to be pretty happy.
And also maybe we’ll get to the binaries in a second.
But Dan, this is the Futures oriented show.
Maybe you’ve been around the Futures game for a bit.
Mr.
Beats wants to know you have any takeaways from the election for Futures traders.
Well, I guess what I’ve seen so far, what we’ve seen is that it’s an orderly market.
And what I mean by that is the anticipation is what we’re seeing being absorbed in the market.
In other words, we’ve seen a kick in volatility in a variety of markets.
Stock indices, currencies, interest rates, metals, energy, eggs, they all had their movement based on this election.
I say anticipation because has anything changed?
I mean, president has been nominated.
We have a president elect Trump.
But is he now acting as our president?
No.
So can he do things that he could do as president?
No.
So what’s changed?
It’s the anticipation of the possibility of things improving.
And we see the stock market responding to it.
But I think it’s important to remember when you see something that occurs off an event, like we’re seeing now, but the event election has occurred, but the president is not the president yet.
That’s an anticipation move.
So you expect volatility now after the market kind of absorbs that volatility, will it continue?
And I think that’s the next thing we got to think about.
So when it comes to looking at futures, I think why certain things are up and down will make sense as we go through the market.
But we’ve seen some big moves.
But the issue now, is it sustainable?
And we have the Fed coming out on Thursday to add a little fuel to the fire.
Are they going to give us that 25 basis point cut that the market is baking in to the market?
Yeah, probably so.
Are they going to give us hints about what may happen by the end of the year?
Another cut?
No cuts?
The market’s going to be looking for that too.
Those are ingredients that could also add some volatility.
But when it’s done, when the smoke clears, excuse me, typically the market stops and catches its breath.
It is sprinting right now.
And just like for you and me, when we sprint, it’s not sustainable.
And the example you’ll see in charts is it goes vertical.
Vertical markets are not sustainable.
Doesn’t mean they’re going to come down.
But vertical markets have to stop at some point and catch its breath.
Now that may happen at the end of the week or at the end of the week, people say, “Oh my gosh, I can’t get over how wonderful all this volatility is and the directional movement that we’re seeing.”
And they hold on to it.
Or on Friday, do people say, “I’ve had such a move in these markets.
I got to take some profit.”
So do we see selling coming in?
Do we see a lack of confidence going into the weekend?
So I think those are some of the things as a futures trader that we want to think about.
And so whether we’re using futures to initiate that opinion or options or a combination of a boat.
All right, since we’re talking elections, another timely question here from Mr.
Thomas.
He says, “This is for the Futures Rundown program.”
Well, he sent it into the right shows.
You passed the first test, Mr.
Thomas.
He said, “Can the host and guests please explain the prediction markets on venues like Kalshi and Robin Hood?
What is actually being traded?
Is it just a limited time future?
Is it a stock?
Is it something else?
I’m confused about these new markets.”
Well, don’t worry, Mr.
Thomas.
You are far from alone.
You are correct in assuming that these are new markets.
They are pretty much brand spanking new.
The final approval for these markets came down really only on October 2nd.
A court decision pretty much allowed these markets to come into existence.
So we’ve only really had them in our hot little hands here in the US for a little over a month.
They have existed overseas, obviously other regulatory environments, a little more fluid than ours here in the US.
But Kalshi effectively sued the CFTC.
So they wanted to list these and they won.
And the final approval came down on October 2nd.
We saw IB dive in as well with their forecast EX products.
You mentioned Robin Hood.
They just got in the game, I believe, last week.
So it’s all very new as well as Poly Market overseas.
That one’s been around for a little bit now.
It’s all very new out there.
And we talked a lot on our Options Bootcamp show about maybe some things you should be leery of when reading too much into these markets that you’re seeing out here.
It’s easy to be confused by the product.
They are not really a stock or a limited time future, like you mentioned, even though they do kind of act like it.
They are effectively binary options.
What does that mean?
That means they are effectively an option that can only be priced at zero to 100.
If the event happens, it’s worth 100.
If it doesn’t happen, it’s worth zero.
And during the lifespan of that binary option, which are usually pretty short in the case of these CalShe and other ones, they’re actually longer, which is something to bear in mind.
If you’re trading on CalShe or on forecast EX, forecast EX contracts settle out on January 7th after the vote is certified.
The CalShe options actually pay out on inauguration day, January 20th.
So if you’re hoping to get a big payout right now and you bought Trump, then you have to wait a little bit.
The good news for you is that they are a 98 cent bid in the marketplace right now.
So you could sell your binaries for 98 cents and pretty much get all of it.
But just something to bear in mind if you’re hoping these contracts to settle in the near term, they do not.
They’re priced around probability.
So Trump right now is a 99% probability to win.
He effectively has.
That’s where they’re trading at, 98 at pretty much 100 out there.
So the prices are nicely and nice and intuitive and they’re easy.
If you think it’s something’s a 50/50 shot, it’s probably going to be trading around 48/52, which is where these binaries were trading just a month ago when they first listed.
They were tracking the polls very closely.
Dan, we talked about these on the big election night spectacular last last night.
Anything you want to add on these new venues that are trading these event binaries around the election and other big events and also maybe the nature of binary options themselves for our listener here, Mr.
Thomas.
Well, I think first that was a great summary, by the way, Mark, of what’s going on.
Yeah, it was really good.
And now we’ve had concepts like this.
This as you said, Mark, these are really new markets.
But the concept of an event product was actually a while ago at University of Iowa.
They had a kind of a private marketplace to express opinions about economic events.
But what we’re talking about here, yeah, it is new and it is a binary option.
It’s zero or 100.
You get a dollar or you get nothing.
And it’s priced, as you just mentioned, logically, right?
It seems there’s a high probability that Trump is going to be president.
Ergo, it’s going to be priced near a dollar.
So it’s logical in that regard.
It’s really a way to express an opinion about something that’s happening.
The only thing I guess I would think about with this is, is this a barometer of that event?
What a good barometer of that event are these options that we’re talking about?
Are they representative of a broad opinion about this event?
And that’s where I think the trickiness does come in a bit.
And Russell mentioned it last night.
And it’s who is the audience that’s trading these?
People say, well, you know, look at these.
We’re buying this on Trump.
Does that mean a lot of people support Trump?
Well, who is the group that’s trading these options?
Is it a broad mix of society?
Is it people that don’t have much money to people who have a lot of money?
Is it a multitude of races that are trading this?
So is it a broad aspect of our population?
Or is it really kind of a narrow one?
And I think it’s probably kind of a narrow one if you think about who’s doing this.
And then we could say, well, is this unusual for that segment to feel this way?
So is that sustainable?
Is that something that you and I can lean against?
It is a barometer to whatever extent it represents that broader population, I suppose.
But I think it’s important to think about the event itself and who is trading this because it’s their opinions that you’re getting, not necessarily the broad universe of opinion.
So I think it can have a color to these products.
I think they’re going to search.
We’re going to see a lot more of these brought on.
And we’re probably going to see more and more events that we’re going to see these products being used for.
So it’s an interesting time in that regard.
But I just think it’s important to think about what composes these products and then your opinion.
It’s a way to express it and see if other people support that idea.
I think the point about who’s trading it is good because the second I started to see these markets really diverge from the polls, Dan, about a month ago, I started to get that little Spidey sense in the back of my neck start to tick.
I was like, wait a minute, what is really driving these markets?
And I started to look a little more into them.
And the CalSheal, I’m looking at CalShea right now, they’ve done about 430 million worth of total notional value of these things, which may sound like a lot and it’s decent, but it’s not even a day’s worth of VIX or SPX or what we’re going to talk about a little bit with the many other things going on out here and some of these real quote unquote markets that you’re used to trading out there.
So they can be prone to potential manipulation.
In fact, Wall Street Journal did uncover a quote unquote French whale who spent about 30 million on Poly Market, really driving it up for Trump.
And there was some debate over whether what his intentions were, where was he actually getting the money from?
Was it some other foreign actor who was doing this for some nefarious purpose?
Either way, that is a potential possibility.
Whereas if you want to try to manipulate the S&P or the VIX, good luck to you.
You’re going to run out of capital before you really, really can can make a big dent in those markets.
So just something to bear in mind on top of what Dan was saying about the demographics and everything is that someone with an axe to grind and a access to even by institutional standards, 30 million is pretty nominal.
A relatively nominal amount of capital can do some damage in these markets.
It does something to bear in mind.
And I also totally agree with you, Dan.
We had John Smolin on last night from my axe.
He’s clearly intrigued by these.
I think every exchange with the pulse is intrigued by these right now.
They want to get in on this game.
A Robinhood just got in last week.
I think we’re definitely going to see more of these event type exchanges and venues coming in the near future.
So if you’re down for this, if you’re intrigued, the good news is we got a lot more coming.
We also got a lot more coming in the trading pit.
So let’s get to it.
It’s time to break down all the action that’s lighting up the futures markets this week.
What’s limit up and what’s crashing and burning.
Let’s find out.
It’s time to enter the trading pit.
All right, everybody.
Let’s get to it right now.
This post election market.
And we saw, interestingly enough, a pretty sizable rally yesterday heading into the event itself and across the broad spectrum, not just equities, equities rallied hard, but also metals rallying, energy rallying.
It was it was pretty surprising to see the quote unquote relief rally before the event itself.
If you want Dan’s thoughts on that, check out the election night spectacular.
He and I went into that pretty deep last night on that show.
I won’t make him repeat himself here, but today now we’re seeing the actual quote unquote relief rally out there.
Most of the major indices on the equity side are on the rampage.
Nasdaq up nearly 3% right now.
S&P up about two and a half percent just today.
Three and two thirds percent for the Dow vol getting killed, the gold getting killed off two and three quarters percent oil coming in a little bit too, which gets us to our winners and losers for the week.
And let’s start to the upside because let’s just be optimistic on the day after the election, shall we?
Let’s do our top 10 here really quickly.
Number 10 and number nine are going to be the same.
They’re Bitcoin and obviously crypto getting a nice lift with the Trump victory up about three and a half, 3.6%.
And then we have number eight Midwest steel up 3.65%.
Obviously some of Trump’s tariff plans weighing in there.
Above that we have number seven.
We’ve got the New York Harbor, the heating oil, I should say up there 4.02%.
And then right above it, 4.08% coming in at number six.
We have the S&P mid cap E-mini, which is interesting.
You don’t see that too often.
By the way, these are all Dease with the exception of two actually, the Bitcoin futures and what’s coming up in a little bit, which is crude oil.
We’ll get there in a second.
Above it, number five, we have good old R-Bob.
We got the Dease contract up 4.28%.
Number four, we’ve got Brent, the Jan contract up 4.39%.
And then number three, our old pal WTI Dease contract up 5.01% this week.
Number four, man, small caps getting the bit in their teeth, Russell 2000 up 6.54%.
And the big winner of the week, Dan, I did not have this in my bingo card for the post election winner, but a soybean oil Dan up 7.01% this week.
Now obviously that’s not all the election driven, but still I did not have that at the top of my list for post election.
What about you, sir?
Any surprises here on this list to the upside?
I actually know in the soybean oil goes back to soybeans and it goes back to China.
China, by the time, let’s do it this way, by the time Trump takes the inauguration in January, China’s already going to be buying Brazilian soy.
Brazil is now the world’s largest exporter of soybeans, along with Argentina and Uruguay and some other countries, but Brazil’s the big one.
And when China goes to buy soybeans and they use a lot of soybeans, they look at United States, they look at Brazil, they look at the US dollar and the product quality is going to be basically the same.
It’s just how much you’re going to pay for it and how much can you get?
You can get as much as you want in either country.
And I think that’s part of the stimulation that you’re seeing in soybean oil.
We saw it in soybeans.
They broke to the downside, but they were also bouncy today.
And I think it’s reflective of the expectation about where China is going to fit in here.
All right.
To the downside we go.
Listeners, our bottom 10 here for the week.
Number 10, we got lean hogs.
Dease contract off 3.11%.
Number nine, we’ve got class three milk.
So back to dairy listeners, also dease 3.36%.
Number eight uranium, an intriguing one to watch of late.
The Jan contract here off 3.53%.
Number seven, another EOM, it’s lithium.
Listeners, also the Jan contract off 3.56%.
Number six, going out to cocoa all the way out to March.
We’ve been talking about cocoa of late.
What a rampage it’s been on.
Last couple of weeks, given some of that back, given another nearly 4% back this week, 3.87% back this week.
Number five, gold after having just quite the run this year, the dease contract given some back as well off 4.63%.
Number four, our old pal, orange juice, the Jan contract off nearly 5%.
Number three, keeping it precious, it’s silver.
The dease contract off 8.42% just this week.
Man, silver giveth and silver taketh away.
And they’re taken with both hands this week.
That’s not enough precious annihilation for you.
Number two, listeners, it’s palladium.
Palladium’s other one has been having quite the year, giving back nearly 10% in the dease contract this week, 9.63%.
And if that’s not enough, our number one dark side move, this is why I tell our vol views folks to tune in to the futures rundown because vol makes it onto the show every now and then, getting back to my point from earlier in the show around these election and all these event risk type trades.
At the end of the day, if you fade vol nine times out of 10, you’re going to be pretty happy.
This is the nove vix future off 15.9, so almost 16%.
I know I can hear the vol fans out there already gnashing their teeth.
Vix is already a percent.
It’s percent of a percent.
I get it.
Just make your piece with it.
They have to have some nomenclature to explain the movements in these products.
So just, I made my piece with it a long time ago.
You’re going to have to do it as well.
Nearly 16% to the dark side for the nove contract in vix.
Dan.
All is collapsing.
Metals are collapsing.
Even long time winners like coco collapsing this week, sir.
What’s catching your eye to the dark side?
Well, you know, I have to tell you, I kind of think it’s logical and here’s why I say that.
If we look at what happened, we see, as you pointed out, stock markets are up and not only are they up, if you look at the S&P, the NASDAQ, the Dow, the Russell, it’s where they went.
They’re up, but they’ve also created, is they’re going to be closing probably up in this area, technical uptrends.
So we see the stock market anticipating, again, a possible positive thing by having Trump as president.
So we’re seeing that stronger.
It also does something else.
And that is, it also supports the dollar.
The dollar is up against all the currencies today in a big way against the Euro, the Swissie, Mr.
Yen.
Except the Aussie dollar, it did get a little weaker, but the Aussie came back a bit.
It implies an inside day for tomorrow, but British pound, Japanese yen, all these are weaker.
All right.
So the dollar is stronger.
And you know, Mark, what you’re talking about are commodities and all these commodities are priced in dollars.
So as the dollar gets stronger, these commodities get more expensive and they have a tendency to cool off.
For example, the precious metals, like gold is down with both hands.
Silver, copper, copper really came off.
And it’s because that dollar is stronger.
These products become more expensive for them to come down.
Not surprising, but I think what is surprising is the volatility that we’re seeing.
It’s the amount of movement that’s really impressive.
And we saw it also with crude oil, it backed off, but it bounced right back up and so did net gas.
So the energy markets kind of held their own today, but then, you know, they have different dynamics.
Not only are they priced in the dollars, but they have other forces at play.
We have a Raphael, a storm that’s down in the Gulf Coast.
And we want to remember when it comes to crude, 80% of our refining capacity is in the Gulf Coast.
Texas and Louisiana are critical and we have offshore operations that need to shut down possibly and they don’t turn on quickly.
So there’s that potential out there.
Plus, we got the issue with Iran and the idea being that Trump may implement sanctions again, tightening things again on Iran.
When Biden started his administration, Iran was producing a little bit under 2 million barrels a day.
They’re now producing almost 4 million barrels a day.
So the market’s thinking, you know, some of that may be trimmed off a bit.
And then they think about the global supply.
Is that going to have an impact?
I think they’re anticipating that.
I don’t think it will have an impact.
There’s enough excess capacity out there to replace what Iran may lose if indeed those sanctions go back on.
So the movement that we’re seeing that you’re talking about, that’s what I meant.
I think it’s kind of logical.
If the dollar is going up and it did in a big way, those commodities become expensive and they tend to have a tendency to go down.
It’s a factor that people oftentimes forget about when it comes to energy.
You know, when you look at crude oil, you also want to think about the US dollar.
And here’s where this comes into play for these commodities.
Let’s say that you and I produce crude oil.
And right now the dollar is at a certain level and we get those dollars.
We sell the crude oil.
We get the dollars.
We go to our bank and we say, I would like to sell you these US dollars and I want my currency.
And the bank says, sure.
If the US dollar is stronger, I get more of my currency.
Or I’ll get a little, I’m sorry, in that case I’d get a little bit less of my currency.
If the US dollar is weaker, I want the price of that commodity to go higher because that way I get more dollars and when I go to my bank, I’ll get more of my currency.
So it’s an offset.
One of the influences in all these commodities, if they’re dollar based, watch the US dollar.
It just happens to be that you and I are seeing a situation where the dollar movement is significant.
And so we’re seeing it reflected in these commodity prices.
Speaking of that dollar, if you want to isolate things down to the immediate post-election move, we can do that for you this week, listeners.
We’ll talk about today’s big kind of price action and we don’t even talk percent.
We’ll talk just straight standard deviation movements.
We’ll do a top and bottom five here really quickly.
Number five today is going to be all equities and rates and a little bit FX out here.
Number five got the S&P micro up 2.71.
Again, not percent.
That is standard deviations.
We’re rocking and rolling here.
Number four, we’ve got the S&P mid cap up 3.25.
Again standard deviations.
Number three, the Dow up nearly three and a half, 3.39 standard deviations.
Number two, I just talked about our old pal, the Russell 2000 up three and a half and the US dollar index as Dan was just saying, up nearly 3.7 standard deviations just today, listeners.
To the downside, we go gold off nearly three standard deviations.
Again just today, all right, behind it number four, we have the Yen.
So Yen USD off 3.16 standard deviations.
Right below that number three, we have the Swiss franc 3.26 standard deviations.
Number two, high grade copper taken out of the chin today off 3.54 and the number one downside again, getting back to the FX conversation, a Euro FX Dies contract off nearly four standard deviations today, listeners, 3.75.
So that’s just if we isolate to immediate post-election action, what is really moving compared to what was moving through the weekend.
Very fascinating stuff.
Indeed listeners.
All right, that music means we’ve come to the end of our post-election extravaganza.
I want to thank Dan for joining me, not just for today, but last night on the big election night spectacular.
If you need more Dan in your life, make sure you’re getting our full network because then you will get our election night spectacular.
It’s a fun one.
Stay tuned to the end.
I want to put a little money in your pocket and have some fun along the way.
And Mr.
Dan, if they want to have more fun with you, where should they go?
What should they do?
Well, they can.
I have a website, DanGramsa.com.
They can take a look at that if they want to look at the 22 different futures markets.
I do it every day.
There’s a free video.
And what they can do is they’ll see red and green lines, which represent buy and sell levels.
They’re not buy and sell recommendations, but I’m just sharing how I look at these markets.
Then you can see how those red and green lines change over time.
You can go back over 10 years in history and say, “Okay, what did he say when this happened?
And what were these red and green lines doing then?”
So the idea behind it is that it shows a way to get used to futures.
If you’ve never looked at them, a place to begin is just to watch them, to see how they do unfold.
And that’s the intent behind that.
There’s a course there also and a more advanced look deeper dive into those.
But I’d say a great place to begin is just a free video that you can look at every day.
If you want, you can sign up for an email that sends out a notice when the video is posted.
So that’s maybe another reference that you might want to look at.
There you go.
DanGramsa, G-R-A-M-Z-A.com, the place to go.
While you’re checking things out, check out our friends over there at T4 Futures and Options.
Tell them you heard about them on the Futures rundown.
They’ll be quite excited.
Just go to ctsfutures.com to learn more or just type in T4 Futures and Options on any device rocking your Google listeners.
That’ll get you there.
We’ve got a free month just by doing that listener.
So a lot of fun stuff.
And it helps support this show that is coming at you and quite frankly tearing up the charts.
Folks loving it.
So thanks to all of you out there for tuning in.
Back again tomorrow.
I’ll be beaming in from the SIBO with our friend the Flowmaster to talk all things.
Options out there should be fun.
This week in Futures, Options after that.
Friday, of course, Volvues.
And then for our pro members, back again for some Options Oddities action.
Then we’re back again all the way through till next Wednesday.
Another episode.
But the Futures rundown.
Stay safe out there everybody.
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