On this episode, Mark and Dan discuss:
- Takeaways from the Election
- Whether you should just fade VIX going into all of these major events
- And much more
Brought to you by Public.com
TRANSCRIPT
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All right, everybody.
It is time to kick off another education Wednesday here.
It is time for Options Boot Camp.
I will be your host, your guide.
My name, of course, Marc Longo from theoptionsinsider.com.
Hope you were able to join us for the big election night spectacular last night on the network.
Man, it was a good time.
I’m amazed I have any voice left.
I went for nearly four hours.
It was a fun time.
I was joined by Mr.
P from this show as well as a host, a plethora of special guests coming on pretty much every half an hour, four hours there on the network.
So it was a good time there, listeners.
So you want to get a bevy of viewpoints on the election and the impact on the markets.
We didn’t get into any partisan politics.
Don’t worry about that.
So however you’re feeling today after the election, if you’re yay or if you’re nay, whatever the case may be, we don’t get into any of that.
We really kind of help try to talk you off the ledge, talk about specifics, actionable things, historical perspectives, have a little bit of fun, walk you off the ledge, had a little bit of fun trivia.
The dance mom really loved the trivia.
A whole bunch more.
So that’s another reason you should be checking out the full network.
It’s already up there on the full network listeners.
The full election night spectacular.
It’s a fun time.
We were going to break it up into multiple parts because it’s multiple hours, but truthfully, by the time we finished, we were just so tired.
I know I had the heart to make our editors say, break it up into three or four shows.
So it’s all one big spicy meatball.
So maybe take it in chunks, but it’s a fun time out there.
Listen, if you want a nonpartisan look at the election and the markets, make sure you check it out.
And of course, if you want to check out more fun stuff, head on over to the pro the options insider dot com slash pro is the place to go to learn more.
And you know, I’m gonna be nice here too, because I like the OBC audience.
Don’t tell anybody here, but we had a special promo at the end of the live stream last night for those of you who stayed till the end.
We gave you 150 bucks in your back pocket.
Kind of nice of us because you like you.
We said, hey, a lot of you like to kick the tires on the pro, but for whatever reason, maybe you’re not able to swing it right now.
We get it.
We don’t want to add to people’s hardships.
So we thought in the spirit of unity and camaraderie and fun, we wanted to reward everyone who listened to the full live stream last night.
They got three months free of the pro, $150 in their back pocket.
I’m a generous guy.
What can I say?
So as you know what?
Let’s keep the spirit of unity going here and let’s do it on OBC as well.
So if you listen into this right now, I know some of you skipped the intro in which case you lose.
Right now, if you go to the options insider dot com slash pro and type in try pro three, all one word that is the code TRY, PRO three, you’re going to get 150 bucks.
You’re going to get three free months of the pro.
That’s a lot.
I mean, you get all the shows we’ve ever done, access to all of them, the exclusive podcast feed.
You get, of course, three tilts at our giveaways every month.
So a three in a row you’re going to get.
So those pro trading crates, they’re pretty awesome.
Bespoke stuff.
One of a kind things we give away.
Those are awesome.
You want to, you want to win one of those.
Trust me.
You get three chances to win those, of course.
And a whole bunch more.
You put other cool stuff out there early for the pro and they get exclusive stuff.
So the options insider dot com slash pro, you’re going to get pro Q and A’s and you’re going to get options, oddities and all kinds of other fun stuff.
So check that out.
I don’t know how long our producers are going to keep that that code live.
So if you want to do it, you listen into this now, get at it.
If you’re listening to this months or years down the road, you’re probably so well.
Maybe you know, if you’re listening four years and I’m being with another election night special out there.
So yeah, interesting stuff.
Make sure you check that out.
Try pro three is the code you should be using.
And while you’re not typing that code, you can type over MTM.
You can check out my buddy who’s also recovering from the election night spectacular.
Mr.
Dan, welcome back to the show, sir.
Have you recovered from the madness of last night, sir?
I’ve recovered.
Got a night’s rest and ready to have added again, Mark.
Yeah. in that spirit of having added again, I think we will do that today.
Listeners with a little bit of the old options drills.
Oh, and much time for our favorite past time.
Option drills.
We’re going to take the strategies learned during the show and teach you how they can be employed to achieve a specific objective.
Do you hear me?
All right, buddy, welcome to options drills going to be a little bit different one.
This episode, as you might imagine, we are kind of in some rarefied territory here post election and it seems like a good opportunity to kind of look back and explore some of the outcomes and maybe some lessons we could take away from this election to improve your own trading or at the very least, you know, mitigate some adverse outcomes.
Speaking of adverse outcomes looks like Dan out there.
If you’re on the on the Harris side, it seems like the official nails in the coffin looks like she just conceded a little while ago.
So it seems like it is officially done, Dan.
So at least the one outcome we were all dreading, Dan, that this would linger for weeks, if not months, and we wouldn’t know the outcome and they’d be tied up into legal battles all the way through January 6.
God forbid, no repeat of that.
At least that didn’t happen, Dan.
So we have that to look forward to.
Yeah, that was definitely a concern of a lot of people, including me.
And I’m definitely very grateful for that.
Yeah, you know, listener, so however you fall on this thing, whether you’re happy or sad today, we’re not going to get into any of that stuff.
We’re really going to talk about kind of some specifics you can take away from this election and things you probably should learn.
Dan, the first thing I can’t say I learned this this time.
I learned this many years ago, but it was just reinforced to me very starkly.
This cycle was and listeners, if you take nothing away from this episode other than this, take this away.
You cannot trust polling data in any way, shape or form going into a big presidential election.
I literally don’t know.
I don’t know about you, Dan.
The first time I had this really starkly brought home to me was back in the ’04 election.
It was Kerry versus Bush.
And the exit polling, I’m not sure if you recall from that day, the exit polling, this is back when they used to release the exit polling early before the polls closed.
All of the exit polling was predominantly just demonstrably in favor of Kerry.
It seemed like Kerry was going to win in the landslide.
I of course vote in Chicago.
I went out to the voting places and a very democratic leaning town.
I think it’s fair to say that most big cities are.
There were huge lines everywhere to vote.
It seemed like there was going to be this massive outpouring of support for Kerry.
And certainly in the early blush, I remember Ted Kennedy was still alive.
He was a representative of the Kerry campaign, him making the rounds on the early talk shows and all the all the political channels and news channels are on election day early on election day that’s making the rounds gloating.
I remember one of the anchors on CNN, I think it was had to even tell him, you know, Senator Kennedy, it isn’t over yet.
You haven’t won yet.
I’d kind of walk him back from his victory lap.
And we all know how that played out.
Kerry did not win.
Spoiler alert from an election from 20 years ago, but Kerry was not our president out there.
So that was a kind of stark reminder to me that even exit polls on the day of the election listeners and when they’re asking people as they’re literally exiting the poll, who did you vote for?
People either lie or their methodology is confused.
Whatever the case may be, you cannot trust those results.
And so, Dan, when I was hearing people on my own network two months ago, when we started to seeing some early polling data coming out that showed that seemed like Harris had a a decent, a small but decent lead in national polls and in different areas, people were coming on this network.
I think Dr.
Vicks even says something like, you know, I think we can kind of price in her winning.
I’m going to move on.
I cautioned everyone several months ago that we really just do not know.
You cannot take anything for granted two months out, let alone on the day of I’m looking here.
We had a bunch of polling data I was going to include on the show last night.
Dan, I just didn’t because I have no faith in any of it.
Like I was looking at the numbers.
This is the most.
This is the up to the minute national average of national polls.
This is an average from, you know, Gallup and a bunch of other national polls.
They showed Harris winning by close to two points in an average of all national polls.
Now, of course, all this stuff is within the margin of error.
So another reason why you shouldn’t trust it.
But still, that was clearly demonstrably false.
There was also a lot of uptick there on the final slate of polls out of the New York Times and see on a college.
Some people may argue with those venues or not, but those are widely regarded institutions out there.
Harris had leads in enough states definitely to win the electoral college.
They said she was ahead in Nevada, which she did not win.
North Carolina, which she did not win.
Wisconsin, which I don’t believe she won in Georgia, which she definitely did not win.
So all of these, all of these polls were demonstrably wrong.
Yet again, they’re saying her path was easily to 274 electoral votes.
All of that was wrong.
A last minute poll in Iowa was breaking huge poll.
Des Moines register.
You think they would know their own state?
It’s the big publication in their own state showed Harris was up by 3% in Iowa.
They were going to break the red spine of the country.
There was going to go blue for the first time in a long time.
That didn’t happen.
Spoiler alert listeners.
So all even this very late breaking poll data listeners was all wrong.
Now they mentioned in that poll for Des Moines as well.
I should be fair to them.
They said 3% but their margin of error is 3.5%, which is a huge margin of error.
So again, a number that they should never even put out there because obviously it was nonsense and it was also well within their margin of error.
Yet they trumpeted it everywhere.
So if you were trading, a lot of people did.
We saw early quote unquote relief rallies in the market.
A lot of people based on the fact that they thought this was over early and they could kind of move on to other things.
And so just take caution, be careful listeners to believe these polls.
Dan, what are your thoughts on even still to this day, we just cannot get the polling thing right, sir.
The information is just wrong.
You know, this is I would I would love to have this discussion with somebody who actually does the polls because they could fill in some gaps in in my understanding of it.
But you know, I’ll play.
I won’t say play devil’s advocate, but but I do want to bring up one point that I think is important.
And that is just the nature of statistics.
Like I’m looking at that.
This graphic that we have in the notes here, the national polls, and it had at this point, what was this November 1st or something?
A little November 5th.
On November 5th.
Oh, that was just yesterday.
It is from yesterday.
That’s all last minute data, sir.
Oh my gosh.
So it had Harris at 48 percent to win Trump at forty six point eight percent to win.
And but wait, does the list the margin of error?
That one does not know.
It probably was outside of that band.
It probably was outside of one and a half percent.
But yeah.
Yeah.
And and like when statisticians factor in a margin for error, like they’re not just being like, I don’t know, ever take a couple of.
No, it’s like mathematical and like that margin of error matters.
And so like if the projected win is not outside the margin of error, then it’s really not enough to go on.
I remember.
Oh, geez.
I think this was the Trump.
And I’m going to screw up this story six ways to Sunday here.
But I think it was the Trump Hillary Clinton campaign, you know, election night where some really super famous, you know, keyed in politician predictor guy.
See, I’m using very specific verbiage here.
Did Clinton to win?
And then Trump won.
And you know, like everybody was like throwing shade at him.
And he’s like, well, no, I mean, like the math and the statistics showed this.
And you know, there’s the margin for error.
Like I, you know, I still stand behind it.
Like, yes, it was wrong.
But like, that’s nature’s statistics.
And like, you know, if they’re doing exit polls, too, like this is something that all traders brains ought to be able to wrap their heads around pretty well.
And you know, like, I mean, I’ve studied trading for 30 years and recently started studying games of chance.
And like you can have.
Like if they’re pulling 100 people who walk out of a poll, all of them could have voted for Kerry.
And it just could be like a total coincidental, but statistically reasonable thing to happen.
You know, like a two standard deviation event.
And you know, the next 200 could have been, you know, three quarters voting for Bush.
So if you know, there’s a lot with statistics that you really have to understand, like, what does that statistic mean?
And what is the margin for error mean?
And what is, you know, I think there’s a lot there that good traders need to make their brains think that way.
Speaking of other takeaways from the election, as we’re taking notes of caution from this election, we talked about this a lot last night on the special as well.
So go check it out all three and a half hours of it.
Listeners, it’s it’s quite a fun time.
But we talked a lot about these these new binary exchanges out there and what to really read into them, what to take away from them at the end of the day.
So we’re talking about these ones out there, the Kalshi forecast EX, which is a subsidiary of interactive broker.
So a wholly owned subsidiary.
Robinhood got into this game late and Poli market, kind of the big one overseas out there as well.
I got a lot of headlines as well.
And if you’re not as familiar with these, it’s understandable.
These are brand new markets, really.
They really just got approved by the CFTC back on October 2nd.
And by that, I mean a federal appeals court pretty much upheld the CFTC’s appeal to a ruling that allowed Kalshi to list event derivatives.
If you haven’t been up on the binary space, event derivative space is interesting space.
Folks like Nate X were really the only game in town for U.S. binary options traders here for a long time.
That’s the only thing that was regulated by the CFTC and allowed to exist here in the U.S.
That has changed now with this lawsuit by Kalshi and also something to give you a note of caution on.
These are brand new markets.
So when I started seeing the markets on these binary venues being trotted out like polling data, it gave me some pause.
I’m usually a big fan of showing real money markets over any sort of other superfluous analysis, whatever it might be.
I don’t know whether it’s some sort of market research an analyst is doing.
Usually real money analysis at the end of the day is always going to be the best predictor.
So I’m usually in that camp.
So I’d be talking about a lot of unusual activity and that kind of analysis on the network because it has a lot more value typically than other types of analysis.
But when I started seeing the markets on a poly market or a Kalshi or whatever being marketed and shown on news outlets as having some sort of real predictive value and showing what the real market was as opposed to the polling data and other things, it kind of gave me some pause because anyone’s been around these markets for a long time and markets in general should know a couple of things.
And I’ve been watching these for a long time.
I’ve been watching enough unusual activity for years to have a little bit of a spidey sense of this stuff.
And certainly my spidey sense started tingling when I started seeing all these markets out there.
I mean, obviously they can provide some insight.
Kalshi was early on some of these trends that we saw ended up playing out with Trump.
But also you have to keep in mind a couple of things.
First off, this is not SPX.
This is not the VIX.
These are not deep liquid markets.
These are very thin, lightly traded markets.
In fact, they don’t even arb amongst their own markets on the same venue.
I was looking last night towards the end of the night and at one point Harris was 26% yes and Trump was 88% yes.
So if you know anything about binaries, they should kind of reflect each other.
So if Trump’s 88, then Harris should be somewhere around 12 or vice versa.
If she’s 26 and then Trump should be somewhere around 74, but they weren’t even arbing within their own exchange.
That’s still kind of how illiquid these things are.
So reading a lot into the tea leaves of binaries is potentially a fool’s errand and also potentially dangerous because it is easy to manipulate these markets.
In fact, we saw this Wall Street Journal did dig in to what happened on Poly Market.
They found what they termed a French whale who changed the lines demonstrably on Poly Market with $30 million.
Now, $30 million, most people sounds like a lot of money, but to these campaigns that are spending literally billions of dollars for the White House and of course in the last couple of weeks, probably spent more than that on Facebook ads alone.
If you can now go out and bid up a market and have that be trumpeted as some sort of material result by the large mainstream media as a result, that’s a worthwhile investment, especially if you think you’re going to win and make money on that trade as a result.
So just to be very cautious that one trader was able to demonstrably change the odds in favor of Trump.
In fact, I first started noticing back on October 8th, we had the show we did with the folks from IB on our pro Q&A and they were very excited.
They piggybacked on the Cal-She lawsuit and they were able to open their own forecast EX.
So looking at their markets back from October 8th, they had Paris at a 52% probability of winning, which reflected the nationwide polls and Trump was at 48%.
That was about in line with how they were polling at the time.
It made a lot of sense.
A couple of days after that on October 10th, we saw a massive divergence on platforms like Cal-She and Polymarket and that was obviously the result of these whales coming in and really bidding up one candidate over the other and distorting as a result.
Now it turned out to be correct in this case, so maybe you could argue, hey, they knew something out of time, but just be very cautious reading into this data on these venues.
They’re brand new, only a month old.
They have nowhere near the liquidity of some of the deep regulated markets you’re used to trading and they can very easily be manipulated.
So just something to bear in mind, getting aside all the arguments we heard about demographics, Polymarket is all international.
It’s young crypto “bros” who are driving it all, so not reflective of broad demi- forget all that stuff.
Just look at the market manipulation side and be cautious.
Dan, you’ve had some time to digest all this binary data right now.
Where do you fall on these markets and their value or maybe lack thereof?
Maybe their distorted potential, sir?
Well, there’s a lot to unpack here as well.
I mean, one, they’re new-ish.
Well they’re new-ish, right?
What- hold on a second.
I gotta take some notes because I’ve got some good points here.
Take a notes.
Yeah.
So, one thing that Russell brought up yesterday that I didn’t really think about was the idea that there could be some behavioral factors at play there also.
Where- who are the people who are trading these?
Well, they’re probably, you know, like a bunch of young and middle-aged white guys.
You know, just to think about what demographic I think is most likely to be using these services.
And they’re the ones who are maybe more likely to vote for Trump.
Or people who are more capitalized tend to historically anyway vote Republican.
So there’s that.
And then you kind of just brought up to something that kind of is in that same vein.
You know, yeah, somebody just like dumps a bunch of money and really, really bids up one candidate over the other, like behaviorally, people like winners.
Hey, this one’s got a 90% chance of winning.
Yeah, that person must be good.
And you know, there’s a lot of your heart that goes into picking your candidate, but that little amygdala thing can work its way into your thought process too.
Now, another thing to think about is like, let’s compare this with sports betting.
So like when I was a kid, sports betting was, I love the bears.
I’ll bet you the bears win.
Oh, and the line is seven.
Okay, there you go.
There’s your bet.
Now sports betting is a room full of traders, each with six computer monitors in front of them.
And they’re running this big algorithm with AI layered on top of it to pick the winners.
As this market grows, I mean, that’s that becomes inevitable.
And the other side, like another part of that too, especially with professional traders, including in sports betting is is arbitrage.
Like you mentioned that one of the platforms, you know, had like you could orbit and usually I love sharing with our listeners.
But if I’ve got like a really, really great trade, I’m just going to tell you the truth.
I tend to keep it to myself.
But it’s just my bandwidth is spread too thin.
I don’t have the time and wherewithal to our markets like this.
But shit, man, I bet you can make a living arbing these markets until everybody else figures it out.
I have to admit, I was tempted last night.
I was like, I’m kind of tired after talking for nearly four hours, but maybe I’m going to make a forecast the X account just to line up these markets a little bit.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And, you know, liquidity begets liquidity too.
So as arbitrage orders step in, there’s just by definition more trading happening on all the platforms.
And it probably becomes more accurate.
I don’t know.
That’s an opinion statement.
I don’t know how much I can back that up.
But you would think the more trading, the more price discovery accurate it becomes, you would think, you know, the other takeaway I would caution a lot of people get tied up in these types of event risk type trades where they worry about hedging their portfolio.
They worry what trade they should make.
How should they be on the right side of the election trade?
Should you buy DJT?
Should you buy SPX?
What should you do out there to really trade this thing?
And you know, at the end of the day, a lot of the people who have been in these markets for a long time, there’s kind of one trade that they tend to aggregate around it after and around these big event type trades.
And it could be anything.
It could be an election.
It could be a big earnings or OPEC number, Fed announcement, that sort of thing.
At the end of the day, most people out there are kind of fading vol as a result of these types of it.
Now, it doesn’t always work.
Obviously, there are those aberrant scenarios.
So you don’t want to bet the house on this type of trade.
But if you do that fading volatility type play, and I’ll admit I did it.
I had a bunch of 17 puts in VIX in my back pocket for this.
And we said it even when we kind of gave you a clue when we were talking about our question of the week last week, we gave you a bunch of different choices.
We said DJT.
We said a bunch of other things.
One of them also was we talked before about VIX puts in particular going beyond.
Remember VIX settles out on a Wednesday morning listener.
So you didn’t want the VIX, any sort of VIX trade that expired today, this morning.
You really wanted something that gave you an extra, at least an extra week, if not longer, to give time for this stuff to play out because we all expected this would go beyond today, that it wouldn’t be settled by today.
We thought might go to the end of the week, might even be longer.
So at the very least, give yourself some time for the VIX to play out.
But the VIX downside trade in most of these scenarios tends to be the one that works out.
It’s fairly easy to do.
You can buy VIX puts.
You can buy VIX put spreads if you don’t want to have the huge outlay.
A lot of ways you can go about it.
Listeners, buy VIX put flies if you really think you could dial things in pretty well there.
But those types of trades are what the lion’s share of, I won’t say the smart money or the size money, but a lot of people, especially in the vol space, that’s what they tend to do.
You don’t need to be right on direction.
You don’t need to know anything about the event.
Other than that, it is over.
The event is over.
The risk is gone and there isn’t some crazy, aberrant surprise that really drives vol in one direction or the other.
So in that case, that was to play and you don’t really need to get that intricate or involved or really do anything crazy.
You could do the long VIX puts or VIX put spreads.
If you’re a little bit more exotic, maybe you want to go S-VIX route, which is of course an inverse vol product.
Just bear in mind the liquidity for those, not really there.
I was looking at some of the S-VIX markets and they did just add weeklies recently.
So that was kind of nice to see.
I wanted them to add weeklies for a while, but the markets are nickel bit at $1.90 for some of these near at the money options.
So spread is going to be monstrous out there.
So you’re probably better off, at least for now, keeping it to VIX.
But it’s a very straightforward.
You don’t have to put a ton into it to have a decent return and you don’t need to be right on direction.
You have to have the event be over and not be a crazy, aberrant event.
And you also need to give yourself enough time.
You can’t have VIX puts that expired this morning or settled this morning.
You really needed something that gives you an extra week or preferably leave in a little more time for all this stuff to play out.
Dan, what are your thoughts at the end of the day?
That is the play for most of these big event risk trades.
I won’t say 99.9% of the time, but let’s say 90 plus percent of the time.
That’s the way to go.
Yeah, boy, man, I will 100% echo that.
If you make a living out of fading volatility events.
Well, you can make a living out of it.
And to Mark’s point, you won’t be right all the time, but you’re just historically.
I can tell you after doing this for 30 darn years, you’re going to be on the right side of it most of the time because I mean, on any given day, statistically, on average, you’re going to be right.
There’s a risk premium built into option prices, sleeping pill.
People will pay more for insurance than it’s worth just to feel better, just like buying an insurance policy.
But that risk premium just goes up big time going into event risk.
And the world typically doesn’t end.
I can’t remember the last time the world ended.
Funny how that works.
So, yeah, listen, sometimes people get a little bit too clever with these options things.
They get over complicated for their own good.
It doesn’t have to be that complicated at the end of the day.
Listen, it’s certainly with these big events, it doesn’t have to be complicated.
Put a little bit of money into some VIX downside strategies and usually nine times out of 10, you will be pretty happy.
As long as you keep things relatively modest from an outlay perspective, you don’t bet the farm on it in case you get that one out of 10 outlier event, then you’re probably going to be pretty happy.
You don’t really need to go to elaborate lengths to figure out what am I going to do around this election because the past is already there, the history is already there, the track record is already there.
Make your life simple.
And I think you’ll be a happier camper.
Let’s see if our campers are happy this week.
Dan, a little bit of the old mail call.
Mail call, time to look at questions submitted by our listeners.
All right, let’s get to some of your thoughts.
We had a lot of questions flying fast and furious this week, Dan, on a lot of different topics, heading into the election, as you might imagine.
Let’s touch on some of those right now.
Let’s start talking about VIX puts.
The VIX, no 17 puts expiring on the 20th.
So these are going out a couple of weeks, listeners.
They traded over 100,000 times earlier this week for 85 cents.
I think they traded a total of nearly a quarter of a million times, but one print was for 100,000 alone for 85 cents.
So we said quite simply at that price, are you a buyer or a seller?
Two thirds of you almost exactly coming into the start of the show now are saying your buyers, 33 percent saying sellers.
If you’re sellers, what are you doing?
But yeah, that was kind of a screaming buy.
I liked that 17 strike.
I was on a little earlier on those, but that was a strike I chose as well.
So I kind of put that out there just to get a sense of what you folks were thinking.
But hopefully you were buying those, Dan, because that gets back to what we were just saying.
At the end of the day, you probably should be fading vol coming out of most of these major events because it tends to work out.
And Dan, someone put on a quarter of a million of these things.
That’s probably pretty happy right now, sir.
Oh, my goodness.
That is crazy.
Yeah, I bet they’re really happy.
I don’t remember if I was posed to this question, but I’m just trying in my mind to think of how I would answer it honestly.
And well, I didn’t buy any 17 puts.
So I can’t say that.
Oh, yeah, I definitely would have.
I certainly would not have sold them.
But I don’t know.
I mean, had it all to do over again, if I would have been asked, I don’t know.
I still really thought that this was going to play out for a lot more time.
I think I would have been a little scared buying them.
They do go out to November 20th.
So that gave you some time on these.
But it wasn’t like they go out today or even next week.
Like, I’ll be transparent here.
I had some puts expire next week.
I’m going into this.
I was thinking to myself, did I buy enough time?
I don’t know.
But I like the price.
There were less than half the price of these.
So it was a nice outlay.
It turned out spoiler alert pretty good.
But I was kind of wondering, should I get some more a little bit farther out just in case?
But again, if you keep things manageable position wise, it’s not a big deal.
You can add more if you want.
But yeah, these were interesting and our audience liked them.
Speaking of liking things, Dan, we asked our audience yesterday not who did they want to win, but who did they think was going to win the election?
And early on, overwhelmingly, there were over two thirds thought Trump was going to pull it out, which is way ahead of when the national national numbers started swinging that way.
So maybe our audience was onto a tip early on.
They ended up being 74.3 percent.
We only did this poll for a couple of hours during the show and it got quite a few votes.
So people were piling into this thing.
74.3 percent said Trump was going to take it.
They turned out to be right.
Only 21.8 percent said Harris, four percent going my route, Dan, none of the above.
I wanted to do the Brewster’s million vote this year, none of the above.
But yeah, our audience was early on that one.
So kind of interesting there.
And then Dan on the crypto side, it’s been another big narrative coming out of this election, which is which camp is pro crypto, which camp maybe was anti crypto?
How much money did crypto funnel into the election?
Spoiler alert, it was a lot.
We said, are you feeling bullish or bearish in Bitcoin, aka crypto ahead of the big election?
This was on Monday.
And we said we saw a similar trade go up.
We saw the DS 1575, 1315 put spread in Bitto go up 100000 times on Monday for 63 cents.
We said, are you a buyer of that?
So you’re bearish in Bitcoin over the next month and change.
Are you a seller?
So you’re bullish or you just wake me up when it’s all over.
And our audience, they wanted to wake up when it was over, Dan, at least right now they do.
Nearly 41 percent going that way.
A third exactly.
Thirty three point three percent want to buy that spread.
That’s kind of interesting because buying puts in the past in Bitto hasn’t worked out too well.
And that twenty five point nine percent want to sell it.
Dan, you have any thoughts on that?
Are you a buyer or a seller of the 1575, 1315 DS put spread in Bitto, sir?
Oh, geez.
I don’t know.
You know, I I’m not following crypto all that closely.
I mean, with Bitto sitting here at 2041.
Well, I mean, geez, just based on.
Yeah, I mean, I would I would.
I would be a seller of that put spread for sure.
You know, at current market prices.
I mean, can you get enough for that?
Hold on a second.
Not you get 63 cents an hour, that’s for sure.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, after it’s said and done with I mean, crypto is one of those things that benefit from the Trump victory.
So yeah, I mean, I would be selling put spreads all day in Bitto if I can get them at the right price.
Yeah.
In the past, that’s been a pretty good do.
You don’t get a lot of juice for the puts in Bitto as opposed to, let’s say, the S&P or an equity because obviously the premium is to the calls in Bitto, not in the puts.
But interesting stuff as well.
One other question we asked you last week.
Let’s just pay it off.
Now we asked, where do you think VIX is going to close going into the end of the week, the final trading session before the big weekend heading into the election?
And thirty five point eight percent of you chose eighteen to twenty one.
VIX actually closed at twenty two oh five last Friday.
So the correct answer was the higher category of twenty one to twenty four, which twenty two point six percent of you chose.
Twenty six point four percent of you thought it was going to be north of twenty four and fifteen point one percent chose below eighteen.
You folks were ultimately right.
Just you’re just wrong on the day.
They had to go to today to get below eighteen.
All right, listeners, that music means we have come to the end.
Man, we went a ways.
Just talking about election fun, Dan.
Any other election fun you want to leave the folks with in terms of takeaways and then be a folks want to talk about any of this stuff, fading events, using ball products or binaries or anything else.
Where should they go?
What should they do?
Yeah, you know, in our I filled in for John, our head coach and group coaching yesterday and I talked about which industries and which stocks were likely to benefit from each candidate’s successful candidacy.
And it played out pretty well.
Just as predicted, I guess.
But the takeaway is there is that they’re probably likely to keep going that way over the next, you know, probably couple of months.
So there’s some pretty good opportunities for those of you who are in our group coaching class or if you join, you can just listen to the archive.
But hit us up over at MarketTaker.com.
Don’t forget the second T for Theta.
Listeners Market Tada.
Market Tada.
He’s even the same market.
Hey, Market Taker.
Market.
I don’t know.
Dan, you thought about MarketTheta.com?
Not a bad URL either.
Right.
MarketTheta.com.
The place I don’t know who owns that, but don’t go there.
Go to Market Theta.
MarketTheta.com.
Not safe for work is what I hear.
Around the water cooler up.
And while you’re checking things out online, listen, there’s only one place to go to show your support of the show.
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Just go to that URL and they’ll know you’re coming from this show.
It helps to support the show that has been coming to you for well over a decade now, listeners.
It helps keep that flow coming.
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Thank them for supporting the show.
Kick the tires on their platform.
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And then from there, if you like what they have to offer, you can always keep using more.
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Go to that website, public.com/optionsbootcamp and give them your feedback.
Chances are they will listen and implement it because they want to hear from you folks, the options traders out there.
That’s going to do it for us on OBC this week, but don’t worry.
If you need more Dans in your life, I’ll be back in about 15 minutes.
So all of our pro listeners hanging out in the live, you can hear it instantaneously with the other Dan, Dan, the man grams out there to hold court on all things futures on the futures rundown.
Should be a good time.
Then back again tomorrow, double header.
I will be beaming in from the SIBO tomorrow with the Flowmaster.
Maybe we’ll get his thoughts on some post-election madness.
Should be a fun time out there as well as all other things, lighting it up.
And of course this week in futures options Friday, going to be a banger week for vol view is a lot of vol to talk about mostly to the downside right now.
So interesting stuff out there.
We’ll get to more of that fun in a little bit.
Now we’re back again next week, all the way through to another education Wednesday, another episode of options bootcamp.
Stay safe out there.
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