On this episode Mark is joined by:
- Mark Sebastian, Option Pit
- Russell Rhoads, Kelley School of Business
They discuss:
- The latest in the volatility markets in the US
- The international volatility market (VSTOXX)
- The December Divot in VSTOXX futures
- A massive put 1×2 in VSTOXX options
- Interesting trading activity and developments in VSTOXX, VIX, SVIX, UVIX, UVXY and VXX
- A VIX trade that made Russell Rhoads angry
- Virtual Focus Day – Trading European Volatility Markets: Daily Options & VSTOXX 2024 – https://volatility.focusday.eurex.com/
- Their Crystal Ball predictions for VIX
- and much more…
Brought to you by Eurex and Public.com
TRANSCRIPT
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Welcome to Volatility Views, the premier program for volatility traders.
Each week we’ll take a deep dive into the world of volatility with in-depth analysis, trading activity reviews, strategy breakdowns, cutting edge education, and much more.
We’ll also bring you exclusive conversations with the traders, researchers, and asset managers who are reshaping the volatility landscape.
If it involves volatility, then you’ll find it on Volatility Views.
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And now it’s time to take a deep dive into the world of volatility.
It’s time for Volatility Views.
All right, everybody.
That music means we are back.
Once again, it is Friday.
It is noon central.
It is 1 p.m.
Eastern.
Do you know what’s going on in the world of volatility?
Well, let’s find out together, shall we?
It is time once again for Volatility Views, the premier program.
For Volatility Traders, my name, of course, Mark Longo from the TheOptionsInsider.com.
I want to thank all of you out there who have been binging the latest addition to our network.
Of course, the Futures rundown.
Vic’s Futures sneak in there on occasion, so we do have some volatility overlap there.
So again, we speak to that Volviews audience who are just subscribed to Volviews.
Hey, we love you.
Man, you’re missing out on a whole bunch of other gold.
I mean, this new Futures show, I’m really just crushing it out there.
Folks are loving it.
I’m glad to see so many people having a good time with it.
It’s on me.
I should have launched it earlier, I suppose.
But hey, better late than never out there.
Check it out.
Make sure wherever you’re listening to Volviews, you should upgrade to the full network.
It’s easy to do.
Just look for Options Insider radio network.
Wherever you’re listening to Volviews right now, it should be there.
In fact, I guarantee you it is.
And then, of course, you want to go above and beyond, check out the pro, TheOptionsInsider.com/pro.
It’s going to get you a couple of additional shows.
Great pro Q&As.
We had one with our friends over there at IB talking about a lot of Vol this week with those folks, as well as, of course, Options Oddities, which comes up after Volviews every week out here.
Great giveaways and a whole bunch more.
You also may have heard a little bit of a new voice, a new name in the intro.
Our friends at Public, they’ve been on the network for a while.
They’re stepping into the big leagues now on Volviews.
We even told them, I said, you know, the Volviews audience, a different bunch, a hardcore bunch.
You know, if you’re coming for the Volviews audience, you best bring your A-game.
They are very knowledgeable and very demanding.
They expect a lot from their platforms.
They said they are ready to kick the tires and light the fire.
They are ready for you, the Volviews audience.
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Not the worst thing at all.
And speaking of not the worst thing, he’s definitely not the worst thing when he joins us here on Volatility views.
He is the once future and present Dr.
Vicks, who these days is doing a hell of a lot of V stocks.
Have you seen the schedule for that V stocks day?
It’s all Dr.
Vicks day.
So he’s a busy fellow, AKA Mr.
Russell Rhodes, who when he’s not talking to us and when he’s not crunching the numbers for V stocks, he is corrupting future minds over there at the Kelly School of Business.
Mr.
Rhodes, welcome back to the show, sir.
As always thrilled to be here and just to continue on the ringing endorsement of the futures program.
I’ve got three teams in the CME futures trading contest right now and Twifo and the futures program.
I’m sorry, I couldn’t remember the exact, the specific name of the futures program.
Both of those are required listening for my students.
In fact, there’s going to be a quiz on Monday.
They have to listen this weekend.
I love it.
Both you and Rich Excel quizzing your kids, requiring them to listen to this.
That’s how we get new listeners.
We force that under pain of failure to listen to the network.
So I appreciate that, sir.
I’ve been hearing from a lot of students.
They’re getting a lot out of it, which is very gratifying.
If we can help corrupt young minds for future generations, we are happy to do so as we keep on rolling into a little bit of the old volatility review.
It’s time to break down the latest developments in the volatility trading world.
It’s time for the volatility review.
All right, everybody.
Let’s do it.
Let’s commence operations here and the volatility review.
Let’s break down the week that was and indeed still is.
I’m about trading and trending and analysis and unusual activity.
All sorts of fun perspectives out there and kicking off the Friday session here, bringing to a close our trading week.
We got much more.
We got green on the screen here.
Listeners, the markets feeling their oats.
Even if they are a wee bit off their highs, we did punch through the 5,800 level in the S&P.
Now looks like we’re threatening it again, heading back down the other direction.
We’ll see.
We’ll see if we stay above it.
You know, these markets these days, listeners, if you don’t like what you’re seeing, just wait five minutes right now as we’re kicking off the show.
S&P up almost a half a percent.
A Dow really feeling its oats up two thirds of a percent over almost 300 handles in the Dow land.
So feeling the roads indeed and NASDAQ up about a quarter of a percent, even though all of them are pretty much off their highs right now.
Everyone’s excited by the cyber taxi of Tesla.
That’s what’s driving all this upside out there.
Listeners, VIX Cash hanging out right now at about a 20 and a half.
That puts it up exactly one and a half points from where it was this time last week.
And if you’re mystified by all this kind of persistent upside in VIX right now, we’ll get to all that fun in a second.
VIX right now still looking frothy at a 116 up about four points.
And I’ve said it before, I don’t want to beat the dead horse, but in the before times, in the pre-pandemic times, when we started getting up to this level, 116 threatening 120, certainly up to 125, that was seen by a lot of people as kind of the upper band there for vol of vol.
Certainly we could blow through it on occasion, get up to 135, maybe even 150, or if things were going crazy.
But outside of those very rare, barren scenarios, usually when you hit 125, that was usually your apex for vol of vol.
Then you start trending back down the other way.
When you got down to 75, that was usually the floor and it kind of rebounded from there.
And you usually vacillate it within that range.
And that was kind of the normal trading life of VIX.
These days, of course, post pandemic, all bets are off.
We spent a heck of a lot of time north of triple digits out there.
So things are very different now, but just something to bear in mind.
We are starting to flirt with what used to be the upper band of vol of vol.
But that said, Mr.
Rhodes, sir, a lot to unpack yet another whipsaw-y week here.
So who knows where we’ll be even by the end of the show.
But what’s been catching your eye in the vol market these days?
You know, it most definitely, and like you said, the artificial boost that I think VIX was getting this week, we’ll talk about that shortly.
You know, VIX is probably at a higher level than it should be right now.
We haven’t gotten a whole lot of volatility in the overall markets.
It’s probably, I don’t know if it’s a little too early to be loading up on any sort of hedge against what might happen in the election.
And after next Wednesday, those sorts of trades won’t show up anymore anyway within VIX.
So it’ll be interesting to see how VIX behaves going into the election.
And I just can’t imagine, you know, we’ve had excess volatility intranite after the 2016 election and then leading up to the 2020 election.
I just can’t imagine that we’re not going to see another repeat where once we get all the election goofiness behind us, you know, they may not like, the market might not like who won, might be worried about whoever, what they may do.
But I have a funny feeling that because we’ll have at least the uncertainty behind us as far as having a successful transfer of power from Biden to Kamala or Biden to Trump, you know, I do feel like that there’s the excess VIX and the excess VIX really are a function of fear with respect to selling options.
You just don’t want to be short volatility right now.
And without enough sellers, the buyers, you know, it doesn’t take a whole lot of buying power to push things up.
In fact, I felt like that when I looked at the volumes a little bit earlier today, they’re really light.
And I think that’s something that came up last week as well.
It is the ADB and VIX land taking a hit.
We’ll get to all that fun in a second.
Our chat’s having fun right now.
They’re enjoying option.
God says we are corrupting the kids.
They’re enjoying, we are.
They’re enjoying corrupting the young of the future, Mr.
Rose.
So that is our mission here on Volvo is corrupting the youth of the future.
I buried the lead at the top there.
I forgot to mention our our pals in small caps land.
I always neglect to sneak them in.
So if six tenths of a percent not doing it for you in the Dow, you know, close to half a percent in the S&P, quarter of a percent in the NASDAQ, how about one point six percent in small caps?
They are certainly feeling the ropes out there in small caps land today.
So there’s a lot of green to be found out there.
Again, will it persist?
That is the big question of the day.
Speaking of questions, Mr.
Mr.
Rhodes, one of the questions we’re getting a lot right now, we kind of just alluded to it is, you know, what the hell is up with Vicks cash right now?
We’ve seen not but green pretty much on the screen.
A little bit of whipsaw action, but mostly trending to the green for the better part of the last few weeks.
And yet, Val has remained stubbornly persistent to the upside.
I say that who’s a guy who’s got a few Vicks puts in my back pocket.
We’re certainly not loving all this all this all this upside we’re seeing out here in Vicks cash.
A lot of people are writing in with this same sentiment.
What’s going on?
Why is Vicks kind of stubbornly persistent above the 20 handle?
You kind of just alluded to it.
It looks like the election is coming up to work.
I say it all the time.
The devil is truly in the details when it comes to these vol products.
And it seems like that is what’s coming to pass right now.
Why don’t you break it down for our listeners?
Absolutely.
I put up a sub-stack and a lot of what I end up digging into with respect to Vicks comes from our Friday discussions.
It’s like we’re teeing it up for what I do over the weekend.
And we were questioning Vicks.
And so I just took a look at what options are being or what series are being used in the Vicks calculation.
This time last week it was the October or no, the November 1st and the November 8th.
That’s the Friday before and the Friday after the 30-day timeframe.
Now it’s the November 8th and the November 15th.
And the November 8th are the options that expire the Friday after the election.
And on Monday I took a look at it just to try to get an apples to apples comparison between the November 8th, November 1st and November 15th.
I took a look at the at the money implied volatility.
And the November 8th options, the implied volatility was I think about two points higher than the at the money implied volatility for the November 1st.
And then you went out to November 15th and the November 15th had implied volatility about 50 cents lower.
It wasn’t as significant of a difference.
But it was starting to tail off a little bit.
In fact right now in an interesting twist, the November 15th are basically priced about the same as the November 8th, which was not the case when I first took a look at all of this.
But they’re only about 20 cents lower or 20 ball point or 0.2 ball points lower for the November 15th at the money straddle versus the November 8th.
But the big point here is to S&P 500 index option series feed into the VIX calculation.
And SIBO made the decision several years ago, which I think I still think was a pretty good decision to start using the Fridays that expired just before and just after the 30 day timeframe to give you a little bit truer 30 day outlook.
The issue with that one is the that no option series spends more than 10 days in the VIX calculation.
And we’re coming to the end of the 10 trading days where the first Friday after the election would be feeding into the calculation.
You go out to again what will become the first Friday as of next Wednesday, which will be the 15th.
Their point two ball points lower.
And then if you go out to the 22nd, they’re basically in line as well.
So the at the money implied balls holding up at a little bit lower level than where it asked for the options that expire right after the election.
So there the S&P 500 index options are still braced for something and maybe braced for something lasting throughout November.
You know, there’s always been all kinds of weird uncertainty around the election.
Personally, I think I think they’re going to resolve this thing and we’ll know who won within a week or so after the election.
I don’t think it’s going to be stretched out like it has in the past.
And if that happens, you’ll definitely regard again, regardless of who wins, you’ll probably start to see VIX VIX work its way back into the tween teens, not necessarily tweens.
That is indeed the subject of our question of the week.
What will VIX be after the election?
We’ll get to that in a second.
Hopefully we don’t have a repeat of all sorts of Sturm and Drong after the election and pouches and big twerks and storming the Capitol.
All that nonsense out there.
The devil is in the details with these products.
I was talking to our buddy, the Flowmaster yesterday on the option block, and he said he was talking to some people internally over there about this as well.
And he did bring up the point as I’m sure some of our listeners are thinking of right now as well that we do have daily options now.
Why don’t we start incorporating those into the calculations?
And he said their quant team is investigating that.
So this might be the last cycle where we have this kind of aberration because we have to leap ahead a little bit with the options.
Maybe if they start using some more near dated closer to the fire type contracts in that calculation, maybe that will smooth this out a little bit.
Maybe not, but it’s an interesting thing.
And again, just goes back to my point.
I beat on all the time on this show.
The devil is truly in the details when you’re trading all of these ball products, even the big dogs like VIX.
It’s not just the Franken products out there, listeners.
All right.
So we’re going to keep on rolling out there to the land of the VIX futures.
And we’re looking at kind of a mixed bag to settle into the end of the week.
Across the board, the term structure has settled down a wee bit, but not much.
I mean, I said last week, you couldn’t really find a 20 handle except for the near dated contracts that for the October future, which again is kind of a, an interesting scenario out there.
These days, that is still the case.
We’ve got October juice to high heaven as it has been pretty much all year.
That’s kind of been the deal.
Hanging out at about a 21 when we kicked off the show, that puts it up actually 21 exactly puts it up about a third of a point from where it was this time last week.
Meanwhile, we’ve got November coming in at about 1935 down about a 10th of a point.
So a little bit of flux there in the front portion of the curve and the rest of the curve kind of just gently drifting down this week back.
We go all the way out to June of next year, listeners, where hopefully all this election noise is well and truly behind us.
And we’re shy of a 19 half even out there in 1942.
So Mr.
Rhodes, anything catching your eye out there in the ball service this week, sir?
Absolutely.
I’m, I’m, you know, I’m the first person that’ll raise their hand and said, I’ve been wrong.
And October, like about a buck 60 premium to, to November, I really expected that to narrow a bit as we approached expiration.
So yeah, it’s right at a, it’s a, it’s a buck 70 now.
It’s a buck 60 yesterday when I was looking at it.
So the fact that that is, is, is widened out as much as it has.
I really expected things to just start to come in line with this anticipation that if you were using the October futures for an October surprise, which we haven’t quite seen yet with respect to the election, that maybe you would start to roll that out to November, just not seeing that happen quite yet.
And then we usually this time of year, we’re talking about November versus December and the December did it is what I always like to call it.
The December debit is only 30 cents relative to January and 45 cents relative to November, which makes me wonder if I assume maybe those are holding up as well in case we get again, a long protracted argument on who actually won this fight.
So we’re not seeing quite the debit we’re used to seeing.
It’s not so obvious that people are asking about it.
Yeah.
You know, well now that we’re so close, it is the front contract.
It kind of almost blends into some of the noise out there.
People were certainly asking about it back in January.
That’s where it really stands out, right?
The beginning of the year, everyone’s like, Oh, wait a minute.
What the hell’s going on in October?
I recall that was all the rage in January of 2020.
What the hell is going on in October?
Then a month and change later, something else really stole all the headlines, Mr.
Dr.
Bix.
And we kind of forgot about that.
But yeah, if you go back to those shows from, let’s say January 2020 listeners, we had, you know, Matt for more ass bunch of other people were coming on there in January and saying this October is crazy overpriced.
We need to sell the hell out of that by the other months.
Then of course, February came along and said, hold my beer.
And we all quickly forgot about the October, October bump.
Speaking of which, let’s go out to the producers.
Let’s go out and have a fun little flash pull out right now.
Let’s do it for the rest of the show.
Let’s go a couple hours, get an hour past the show.
So folks have a chance to play.
Do you think we’ll see an October surprise that impacts the election?
Yes or no.
That’s kind of been the one thing people have been clinging to out here in VIX and using to justify these somewhat elevated levels we’re seeing a VIX right now is, hey, we haven’t seen the October surprise yet.
And that’s I mean, it’s almost ever since Reagan kind of made it a surprise.
People have come to expect it.
I was thinking about it.
Mr.
Rhodes, I was talking about this actually with the folks from IB, earliest week on our pro Q&A.
To my mind, we didn’t really have a big one in 2020.
The last one I can recall really dramatically, some might say changing the course of the election was of course the Hillary email scandal a week and change before the 2016 election.
Can you recall anything of similar seismic impact on 2020, sir?
I felt like they tried and it didn’t work and it was the Biden laptop.
I really feel like they did try one, but it did.
And that’s why nobody remembers that the press did a really good job on that.
And I felt like it seemed like on October 1st, something came out about Trump and something came out about Kamala that nobody paid a whole lot of attention to.
I can’t even remember what the news headlines are right now, but part of me felt like that was both of them trying to get ahead of the other one on saying something crappy about the other person.
And it didn’t gain any traction.
I don’t really think there, I just can’t imagine there’s anything that people don’t know about Donald Trump or Kamala Harris that would be shocking to them.
Trump’s has her baggage, Trump definitely has his baggage and anybody that’s supporting them seems to be looking well beyond all of that and just on board with their guy or girl.
And I don’t feel like, I really feel like anybody that’s already made up their mind who they’re going to vote for, I don’t care how many millions of dollars you spend on goofy attack ads, it’s not going to help at this point.
I feel like a lot of people already have that.
You know?
I think the time I be brought up on Tuesday, some people know these people already, but you know who had more decades of baggage than Hillary back in 2016?
And I think that came back and really cut her off at the knees there.
So I don’t know if that argument really stands because she had a longer track record than either of these two and it really kind of undercut her.
So maybe if it comes in and it reinforces some sort of negative perception people have, like it seemed like it did with her, then that could really be impactful.
But you’re right, if it’s, if everyone’s expecting one, is it an October surprise anymore?
If everyone’s got to have their surprise up their sleeves, not really a surprise.
It’s kind of a known unknown at that point, but intriguing stuff.
Our poll just went live.
Get over there and vote right now.
Listeners will check in on it as the show progresses.
As we keep on rolling, it is time to progress beyond our shores listeners and explore what’s going on in the international vol market.
Yes, it is time for the international volatility review.
It’s time to explore what’s happening in the volatility market beyond our shores.
It’s time for the international volatility review.
The international volatility segment is brought to you by EuroX, home of Euro stocks, V stocks, DAX and the German government bond based Eurobund, Eurobabel, Euro shots derivatives.
EuroX is the leading European derivatives exchange.
Learn more about trading V stocks, futures and options.
The European volatility benchmark at www.yorex.com/vstocks.
All right, let’s get to the international fun, listeners.
And it is always fascinating to watch the differences and the nuances between these products.
Again, we were just talking about the devils and the details with VIX.
Same thing here with V stocks.
While VIX is remaining stubbornly firm, V stocks given up the ghost this week coming in to the close today, 18 and a half puts it down nearly two points about one and three quarters points from where it was this time last week.
I know there’s a lot of VIX people out there who would love to see VIX at a level like this right now.
And we are not for a variety of the reasons we just broke down earlier.
Remember that range we’ve seen for the year, the high go figure, August 5th, 31.16, the low last December, but we also flirted with it back in March of 1212.
So obviously a little over six, close to six and a half points above that 52 week low right now.
So if you want to get this stuff out for yourselves, urx.com, the place to go, or just go to stocks.com.
That’ll get you straight to V stock.
That’s s t o x x.com.
If you are so inclined to listen, that’ll give you all this data we’re talking about right now and a whole bunch more.
Mr.
Road, sir, when you’re not talking to me, you’re crunching a whole heck of a lot of V stocks data.
What’s catching your eye in the world of international vol these days, sir?
I do want to point out that and I must spend more time looking at, like you said, the details.
I am the devil of the details for volatility.
I kind of like that better than I want to be the devil of the details from here on out.
The devil of the– Dr.
Devil.
Not in the details, the devil of the details.
I kind of like that.
So the detail with these stocks, they don’t use weeklies.
They use the standard third Friday options.
So what you’re seeing now in these stocks is you’re seeing the November and December options are what’s feeding into the V stocks calculation.
Or you’re getting ready to see December takeover.
Sorry, we’ve still got a little bit of October left up until next week.
And then it will start to be all November and December.
But regardless of the exact days, et cetera, the fact that we’ve got longer dated options that are probably reflecting less of a chance that we’ve still got election related volatility in that index.
And that would explain the lower level right there.
Goodness, I really wish I had thought of that about three weeks ago and traded these stocks versus VIX.
Remind me in four years and we’ll get on that one.
Also something else with respect to these stocks versus VIX, the October-November relationship had been very similar for months.
And now it’s widened back out.
We got down to a 20-cent spread of October over November until the past couple of weeks.
And now it’s widened back up to well over a buck 50.
And a buck 50 was kind of the level where I like to look at maybe shorting October and going long November.
I’m not doing that because we’re so close to October expiration.
But it’s only a 15-cent premium over in Europe.
And this gets even better.
The December divot in these stocks is $1.35 when you look at November versus December and $1 when you look at January versus December.
So the December contracts or even like a November-December-January fly in these stocks versus a fly in VIX might make an awful lot of sense right now.
Where you’re long December for in these stocks and you’re short December in VIX.
Yeah, I don’t hate that at all.
That’d be a really interesting.
I’m looking at like five numbers at once now and trying to talk at the same time.
I’m trying to do all the math right now and that’s not going to work.
But I mean that actually I think that makes a lot of sense.
Yeah I don’t hate that.
We love the seasonality of the vol products.
You always talk about the lows in VIX.
We just said the 52-week low for V stocks is in December.
It looks like they’re pricing in an even more aggressive trough.
And the fact that you’re right it’s so immediate.
It’s so obviously seasonal because November is priced above it.
January is priced above it.
I got a feeling there’s a thing or two you could do with that list.
Speaking of doing things out there in V stocks, I know you were digging last week into those downside puts or maybe we thought maybe it was a ratio spread.
Do you have any more insight on that sir?
Gosh yeah and I’m trying to pull up the article right now because I spent almost all of Friday night going through this V stock stuff that we were talking about.
So last week we picked up on a big V stocks trade and it was what were they doing?
Were they buying 24,000 of the V stocks, 15 puts and selling 12,000 of the December 17 puts?
That’s what we thought it was.
That was an exit.
And they did it in a credit for 38 cents.
They got into it.
They got into it basically at a credit as well.
So they did extremely well on these trades.
Nice to get paid to get in and get out.
That’s nice.
I went back through the tape on both of those options and it looks like a 98,000 by 49,000 two by one was put on over six different trading sessions over about a two week period.
And the net result there was it ended up being they did put one lot on it at a credit but the rest of them were in a debit.
So they paid 12 cents for them and they’ve done two exit trades so far.
The one that we picked up on September 30th where they got a credit of 38 cents after paying 12 cents for it and then they got out of 3,000 of the 15 puts and 1,500 of the 17 puts and they took in a 40 cent credit when they did that.
It looks like there might have been one more small trade this week that was exiting.
I’m not 100% sure what the situation was there but the original positions down to 71,000 by 35,500 and they realized a profit of 50 cents per spread on part of it so far which is just really, really nice.
I’m just watching for them to trade out of the rest of it.
Now this is a December trade and not 100% sure why they were looking out to December for it.
We’re going to mention that Uruk has an event coming up and I’ve been doing all the prep calls for that Uruk’s event that’s in a couple of weeks and a lot of discussion around this trade because it’s not something that they’ve seen before but it looks like it’s working out particularly well.
So there.
We see one by twos to the upside in VIX all the time.
I could count on probably one hand the number of times I’ve seen size put one by twos so that in and of itself makes it interesting.
The fact that they got a credit to get in at least for some of it and a credit to get out is doubly intriguing out there.
That’s the way to do it.
Paid to get in and paid to get out listeners.
There are worse things than that.
So yeah they went out to December.
That was kind of one of the things that made me surprised that they were closing now but hey sometimes you got to get while the getting is good Mr.
Rhodes and they clearly think the getting is good right now.
Listen have you been following along with this paper out here and V stocks it.
It certainly is fascinating stuff.
If you want more fascinating stuff stay tuned in a little bit when we break down Russell Day a.k.a. the trading European volatility markets.
The upcoming session about daily options and V stocks coming up at your ex.
You can check it out for yourselves in a little bit as we check out what’s going on right now in the mothership out there in VIX options.
Is it a banger day out there in VIX land listeners the answer.
Kind of no kind of like even though it has ticked up just as we’ve been talking coming into the show it was barely over 200000.
Now we’re up to 374 so something is hitting on the tape right now that’s starting to make things a little bit more respectable.
The ADV 827 so we’re not even halfway to this ADV which in and of itself has been kind of cut off at the knees.
That’s down 60000 contracts on this time a week ago so VIX options not managing to maintain that I’ve said it before once it starts threatening a million contracts a day that’s really not sustainable for VIX over the long term unless things are really rocking and rolling and we are obviously not right now at least rocking and rolling to that degree.
So you knew that ADV was going to come in and that’s pretty much the case still 827 a very respectable a lot of names out there would kill for that but VIX land taken a little bit off the top and for all of you out there who’ve been waiting the entire show to say just get to it get to the top 10 we shall do that right now.
You’ve been waiting for your top 10 indicator breakdown how are we looking top 10 size positions and VIX options right now we’ve been 50/50 for a while listeners and you know if you’ve been listening to the show for a while that’s kind of an aberrant scenario usually doesn’t hang out that long but not this week it’s hanging out again this week we are still 50/50 right now calls over puts in the top 10 read into that what you will listen is cost you 215,000 contracts to break into the top 10 this week that gets you to the OCC 29s wow good luck with those bad boys number 9 230,000 of the OCC 17 puts I hope those come to pass that means I’ll be a happy camper number 8 232,000 of my old pal my favorite position on the board they have usurped the former 47 halves that I used to love it’s the no doubles 232,000 of those bad boys number 7 247,000 of the OCC 20s those are looking certainly intriguing right now number 6 267,000 of the OCC 45s again probably no bueno but those have also been on the other sides of ratios and verticals as well this kind of funky upside in October number 5 284,000 of the OCC 15 puts that certainly seems like a bridge too far especially given what we’ve been saying lately with the devil and the details of the VIX calculation 15 I wouldn’t be angry at it but I don’t think we’re going to see it number 4 296,000 of the OCC 19 puts those certainly have a chance we’re seeing vol come in a little bit as we’re coming into the end of the show so OCC 19 puts have a chance number 3 301,000 of the no 35 so right back to the no upside listeners number 2 only a madman would trade these 310,000 of the OCC 18 puts and then the number 1 size position out here in VIX options listeners is perhaps yet another bridge too far 319,000 of the OCC 16 puts what do you think you think we can get there by October expiration you know the train is coming not a lot of time left but you know what there is time for listeners it’s Russell’s Weekly Rundown now Russell’s Weekly Rundown now Russell’s Weekly Rundown all right everybody it is time to unleash the man who calls himself now the devil in the VIX details yes mr. doctor VIX what devils did you spot this week sir but also there are a couple other things I think we want to talk about with respect to the VIX complex I’ve only got a handful of trades it’s always a little bit quieter on the week before a before a standard expiration we’ve got standard expiration I did find a trade that I can badmouth a bit one that I did I really like so let’s get going on Wednesday with VIX at 2128 well I actually like being able to quote VIX with a curvy number at the beginning and VIX at 2128 somebody bought 1500 of the October 23rd 28 calls for 71 cents did that in a big ol sweep not real wild about that trade not really sure what we’ve got on the docket between now and October 23rd other than earnings and earnings typically doesn’t doesn’t have much of an impact on VIX so yeah that one’s a so-so trade here’s where I’m getting upset because it’s a lack of lodging oh I’m getting ready to badmouth risk managers I don’t have to deal with them anymore I don’t have to suck up to him anymore so here we go yesterday with VIX at 2120 somebody came in and sold a hundred of the October 30th 19 puts for 65 cents and then they bought which I’m okay with you know VIX will probably hold up a bit going into the election maybe I mean I can understand the logic behind that and then they went out they bought a hundred of the October 30th 14 and a half puts for two cents to protect themselves so it was 19 half 14 half those are the strikes so it was 19 14 and a half yeah oh but it’s in my dislike here is all about the I mean I loved it when I was at SIBO because we got extra volume from it but we hadn’t been below 14 and a half since mid-octo missed August and I you know I you know there’s no certainties in the financial market and I’ll probably regret what I’m getting ready to say I’m getting ready to make it happen what do you think the chances of VIX going under 14 and a half between now and the end of the month are if it does it I hope it does it within the next few days I would really enjoy that I know I know I know what you want yeah I mean he sold the 19 halfs my teens for no they sold the 19th for 65 cents okay 65 and I was gonna say but but they the part I don’t like is they bought the 14 and a half puts for 20 cents you know I my assumption is a risk manager made them do that you know what I do you see what I’m saying about it I do I I understand buying the 16s or the 17s for protection but that’s there are option trades and without getting way too much into the details because I am the detail devil now but there are option trades that firms put on sometimes for risk that they really don’t want to either because they’ve got to worry about a stress test we see a lot of out of the money SPX put buying that’s all about making sure you pass the Fed mandated stress test etc so I just think this 14 and a half puts it doesn’t really in my mind it really doesn’t change that much of the risk come risk composition right as the whiff of a tap you on the shoulder type trade just do it to make them happy kind of yeah yeah and and we take and we talk about when you know people buy 50 60 70 strike calls that it’s the same thing but VIX VIX in going to zero I I you know I ran it a long long time ago and I I just I we took all the options that were feeding into the VIX calculation and we said they were a nickel by a dime and that made VIX about 5% so you got to think that’s probably as low as VIX can get five has it been our kind of static VIX yeah yeah it was a round of five yeah yeah and that’s impossible in its own right but you know I understand I would understand if they had sold the 19 calls and the risk manager made them buy the 40 calls I actually do understand that but I don’t understand I disagree with it is a better I understand why they’re doing it but I disagree with it that risk management makes you very angry sir they do they do I don’t like being tapped on the shoulder by a big 10 a former big 10 linemen that can do some math and then finally that that’s what the risk managers on the floor I was gonna say we’ve got a risk manager did you have in the euro dollar option pit that’s exactly the kind of risk manager that you had to get down there my guys were all the opposite of those who couldn’t be the d1 linemen but they were good at math so they could be the risk managers yes they’d be the risk manager so and then today I like this trade and I think anybody that’s ever listened we talked about the markets they will understand why VIX was that when VIX was at 2065 a bit earlier today somebody came in and bought 200 of the October 23rd 40 puts and they paid 1865 for those I know that’s kind of an expensive option but your break even on it is 2135 interesting which is about yeah which is above where the market’s trading I mean I could easily see maybe VIX drifting especially with some of the you know the artificial boost that we’ve been talking about easily see VIX below 20 without any sort of market event come October 23rd settlement so I’ll keep an eye on that one and see if they hold it to settlement and report back here that’s another one we don’t see a ton of deep in the money puts going up in VIX so that’s an interesting choice oh you don’t you don’t and you got to figure that that that’s probably someone who does not have access to a futures account but but does have a securities account where they can trade VIX options but they can’t trade VIX futures yeah which is a which is a segue and I promise I’ll be very quick about this you know what I’m getting ready to talk about yeah dive in sir SIBO sky I just know where we are time wise SIBO is gonna launch day and they’re not calling them this but this is what they are they are launching daily options on that settle into a VIX future position on Monday and they had a call about it this morning they’re not calling them daily options which I thought was kind of funny no they have a hit on that in the branding yes yes but they do settle into so if you hold them to expiration and I think one of the reasons that like SPX NDX and right options and Eurostock 50 options are so popular around you know around short short-term trading with daily options available is you put the trade on you go to the gym you goof off you look where the market closed and you had your cast settlement I I’m I if I was still at SIBO and I was involved in this process I would have really encouraged cast settlement versus settlement into the futures I don’t know if the CFTC would let them do that but I’m sure there’s regulatory reasons there’s always reasons that we don’t know about behind products being launched but they’re gonna have you know you’re gonna be able to buy a collar buy a put that will settle into a longer short position in a monthly VIX future they’re only based on the monthly VIX future so not based on the weekly VIX futures starting on Monday which I don’t know if we’re gonna be able if we’re gonna include that in our weekly rundown or we’re gonna you know the dandy dailies and then the weekly rundown who knows who knows who knows if they’re gonna trade you know if they make you really angry we can include them yeah if they make me really angry we’ll include them so you know they’re gonna launch these things we’ll definitely have a lot more to say about them next week I know I’m going to SIBO’s risk management conference kicks off Tuesday with some private meetings and then Wednesday with social stuff and Thursday with a lot of a lot a jam-packed full day of caffeine in yourself up and listen to people talk about derivatives and volatility but I’ll come back with a lot more insight on to those contracts next week yeah as you can make if you can make it off your plane in time sir we’ll love to hear the the live update from RMC sir it’s that’ll be and you’re right they haven’t been hitting on the I was just talking about these with the Flowmaster yesterday and they haven’t really been hitting on they’ve been talking about the futures aspect but not the daily aspect so you’re right that’s a bit of a interesting choice out there speaking of daily VIX options activity that leads right into what we’re talking about right now listeners which is it was it lighten it up out there in VIX options this week well I think you could reasonably intuit from the ADV coming in that the answer is no but you might be surprised we had a couple of bangers out here this week not today like we said today 374,000 contracts on the tape the big dog today 22,000 of the ack 21 puts as we’re kind of coming up against I’m gonna kind of run through test the biggest one of today so let’s just jump to yesterday because much spicier meatball excuse me yesterday listener 1.09 million contracts on the tape the big dog yesterday 65,000 of the Jan 17 puts against 65,000 of the ack 30s funky one now of those two the Jan was opening so intriguing because everyone’s gonna roll their ack 30s to the Jan 17 puts that’s just what you do listeners number three 51,000 of the ack 28s good luck to them number four 48,000 those are probably closing as well number four 48,000 of the DS 16 puts and number five 43,000 of the ack doubles looks like a lot of closing there except for the Jans a Wednesday 773,000 so another decently active day but not at the ADV the big dog 49,000 of the ack 19 puts number two 36,000 of the ack 18s again what madman would trade those things number three 32,000 of the ack 25s number four 30,000 of the ack 21s and number five 30,000 as well of the nove 15 one five puts interesting time to be looking at the seasonality of Vicks you know we talked about DS looking good in that time frame maybe a 15 handle nove I don’t know interesting depends how much post-election kerfuffle we have going on Tuesday 668,000 on the tape so a lighter day 33,000 was the big dog that was the ack 25s followed by number two 32,000 of the DS 15 puts number three 27,000 of the no 15 puts we talked about this one a little bit yesterday on the option block as well number four 22,000 of the ack 45s and number five 20,000 exactly of the March 60s again the only clearly opening trade on the board yesterday March 6 0s I have to assume there was something else probably against that maybe a ratio or something that didn’t make it into our top five Monday the banger day of the week 1.4 million so we came out of the gate hot on Monday listen as the big dog 141,000 of the nove 25s followed by number 239,000 of the ack 25s already talked about this on the odd option block on Monday this was what looked like a roll no ack nove 25 but they also had other legs against it 117,000 of the ack 45s and 116,000 of the no 45s looks like they were taking their ack vertical and rolling it to November but then again there’s so much size oi on these strikes that we had it’s hard to penetrate sometimes and then number five 78,000 of my favorites track on the board the nove doubles I’ll just keep going out to the devil in the detail doctors favorite that’s gonna be hard it’s a mouthful to say favorite product it’s of course s Vicks a 24 35 down about a two thirds of a point this weekend kind of unched since the start of the show so we’re kind of just treading water out here as we’re already kind of coming up against we even have a lot of fun on the show today listeners hope you’ve been having a lot of fun as well a 2600 contracts on the tape so the narrative that nobody wants to trade s Vicks options continues the adv is 6000 now that’s down another 500 at this point we’re gonna be down to 50 contracts adv a day I mean that keeps giving up hundreds to thousands of contracts in adv every week this is not sustainable it was just nearly 20,000 about a month and change ago so people just don’t want to trade s Vicks options for whatever it’s not like it’s not moving well today it’s not but it has been moving the big dog out there such as it is 1900 of the Jan 36 is so read into that what you will you Vicks five and a half also weirdly unchanged and it pretty much has been unchanged all show as well a you Vicks looking a little bit spicier out there today 25,000 contracts on the tape that’s pretty close to its adv of 30,000 which is also coming in about 3000 so 10% on the week again not a good trend but you Vicks still putting up more numbers at the end of the day than s Vicks Mr.
Rhodes I know your you Vicks trade did all right over the week we had some listeners right in they’re happy whenever they get a dime or so pop because that means you can live to fight another day in this chest the whole name of the game live to fight every week until you get another one of those 10 handle jumps boys catching your eye out there in s Vicks and you Vicks this week sir like you said the you Vicks trade it’s not so much I know the timing of kind of coming up with that has been very very fortunate but it really and I get you know I’ll get I’ll get people pinging me every once in a while about it on Monday morning it really is not about making money every week it’s really more about having something in place that we get if we get a volatility event it’s going to offset some of the suffering that you’re going to experience everywhere elsewhere and you guys are very aware that I always that I’m always holding a position in an s Vicks I think with the exception of a week or two since it’s launched I’ve been long at least a little bit of it so it’s a it’s a great thing to match up with that position I mean I’m not matching it up one for one it’s typically about a quarter of it but yeah it’s just it’s just kind of a fun thing that we figured out hopefully it continues to stick with us you know and and continues to give us some opportunities I play around with it I played around with using a moving stop to get out of it on Monday and then tested that and that didn’t help either but every week I try something a little bit different to try to improve on it and so far no good we’ll get there we’ll get there the listeners are loving it this is one they’ve kind of grok on to I know a lot of them so it’s easy to do at the end of the day right anyone could buy some UVic at the end of the day question is when and then when do you get out of it obviously and what do you have against it in the case of s Vicks I know you have a lot of s Vicks but an intriguing one any week where you can get it paying for itself so you can keep keep doing it week after week always a good thing out there as we keep on rolling out there UV x y again not a heck of a lot going on 2835 up about a third of a point on the week so not a lot for UV x y 40,000 contracts on the tape today so you be x y kind of feeling that adv death we’re seeing across the board in the ball space right now the adv is 71,000 down 8000 from this time last week so not a lot of people trading UV x y right now as well which was kind of the end of the day listeners the argument all the UV x y defense force used to have when they come on the show and say UV x y is better why because it’s more liquid well it’s clearly doing more paper still it’s got a lot more adv still than UV x but eventually those two those two paths will cross and the question is where are you hanging out UV x or UV x y right now someone’s hanging out in 19,000 of the Jan 25 in UV x y so they’re looking decent right now will that persist we shall see and then getting out to V x x 54 40 as we kicked off the show and still pretty much hanging out right around there up about six tenths of a point so again not a huge evolution across any of these products this week 11,000 contracts on the tape that doesn’t sound like a loss because it’s not the adv is only 28,000 that’s down another 2000 so we’re seeing just the slow decline of adv you know we’re seeing opposite seasonality this year in the ball space all these products maxed out their volume in adv back in the dog days of summer and now they’ve had a slow steady decline ever since it’s supposed to be the other way around you die in August and then you come back to life in September October but we’re kind of seeing the opposite of that right now which is interesting top position in V x x it’s our old pal the Jan excuse me the October 70s my goodness yeah good luck on those 8800 of those bad boys open out there I know Mr.
Rhodes he’s a huge fan of you V x y and V x x so we’ll just keep on rolling right on into the crystal ball it’s time to peer into the future and reveal what the volatility gods hold in store it’s time to look into the crystal ball all right everybody let’s get to the crystal ball before we get there Mr.
Rhodes I neglected to check in on our flash pole we have two poles right now an actual question the week in the flash pole first off our flash pole we asked our audience do you think we’ll see an October surprise and they’re gearing for it Mr.
Rhodes they’re ready they’re hunkering down two thirds are saying yes right now only a third saying no so they’re expecting to get smacked in the face sometime between now and the election so that’s kind of interesting I guess in past is prologue you know they’re going to try right the question is well there it will have legs and then getting back to what you were talking about before some of the mechanics of all and also whether ball is looking a little bit surprisingly spicy or even past the election right now that’s our question of the week right now we said hey we’re a month out from the election a lot still has to unfold between now and November 5th however when the dust settles where will VIX open on Wednesday November 6th we gave you four choices back down below 18 38 point I’m not gonna say I almost gave away the answer back down below 18 or still higher above 26 or a little bit higher 22 to 26 or around here where we are right now 18 to 22 Mr.
Rhodes what is your answer where you think VIX will be the day after the election the morning after the election and then be where you think our audience is going after the election morning after yes 17 and a half oh so you are in the VIX it gets annihilated camp interesting you know it’s funny you say annihilated so I don’t consider 17 and a half a night no in general it’s not where we are right now that that’s that’s taken a bit of a hit and you were just saying you thought the the ball was looking a little bit firmer beyond the election than you thought so interesting interesting our audience is with you 38.7% say back below 18 so that would fall certainly in the 17 and a half category 19.4% for number two saying it’s going to be higher north of 26 29% say it’s going to be in that 22 to 26 range and 12.9% say we’re going to be banging around where we are right now 18 to 22 get out there right now listeners you’ve got about a few hours left to make your voice heard all right it’s crystal ball time listeners and let’s see as we’re coming into the end of the show we’re seeing the markets not that dissimilar from where we were to start the show we’re coming in easing a little bit we’ve got the Dow well the Dow is still running away with it up eight tenths of a percent actually I take it back as to be just ticked about half a percent that’s about where it was start the show NASDAQ easing a bit only up about a quarter of a percent right now and VIX cash easing a bit as well down to about a like about a 20 20 yeah 2036 out there right now so 2036 listeners let’s see last week we had myself I was at a 1765 so no joy for me Russell Oh 2024 point one two away Oh mr.
Rhodes I feel your pain and then VIX our mix mark was that his palindromic nonsense 1661 you know if you waited two minutes you would have a bullseye mr.
Rhodes so you’re close I know I know damn damn that’s I’ve been there so many times so I could I feel your pain that one hurts what are you feeling for this time next week if you want to throw a little bee stocks in there as well have at it sir Oh bee stocks I think about 1810 and I think it’ll continue to drift lower as we start to shift out to December on that one and I think we’re gonna creep a bit below 20 what did you say I want to make sure I don’t step on you all right well then I’m gonna say 1967 my birth year 1967 this time next week maybe we get that 14 handle come into play you were just talking about sir I just know I just re-racked VIX for you just in case still 2036 I’m sorry sir not budging I was trying to get you those last point oh two to give you a bullseye I’m trying I’m working for you but the VIX is not VIX is not playing ball all right what are we feeling this time next week listeners yeah it’s it’s a weird time we talked about the mechanics of VIX cash out there I’m gonna say hmm I like Russell’s levels not terrible but I’m gonna say I’m gonna be a little bit more favorable to the downside I’m gonna say 1865 I’m spitting in the face of everything we’re seeing out there in the vault market right now 1865 so coming off not quite two points out there and then V stocks I don’t hate where you are mr.
Rose I’m gonna give you a little bit of breathing room I’m gonna say 1790 I’m gonna see 1785 there we go a little bit a little bit south of the 18 and get your predictions in for VIX and for V stocks listeners you hit one of them now you get to get two chances to tilt set the windmill you hit one of them fabulous prizes can be yours just like they were almost Russell’s today but alas they were not that music means we are done here for this week listeners of course if you want to learn more about all things volatility and what public has to bring to the table only one place to go public.com/vv of course that stands for volatility views easy no cost way to support the show head on over there tell them you heard about them I should say from volatility views just go into that URL does that just tells them hey you heard about them from volatility views kick the tires and light the fires maybe you get a rebate or two in your back pocket not the worst thing they also really want to hear your feedback on their platform it is a new platform after all and they want you folks the cutting edge the hard cores the hardest of the hard cores on vol views they really want your insights so get on over there tell them what you like tell them maybe what you like to see them add and guess what maybe they’ll do it in fact they probably will that’s why they’ve been on our network for a while they’re loving to hear your feedback and your engagement public.com/vv the place to go to learn more and Mr.
Rhodes a little birdie has told me we have an upcoming Dr.
V stocks Palooza coming up over there with your ex remind us again when is that and where can folks go to check it out.
Sorry Thursday the 24th and I think the best way is to Google your ex focus day 2024 and you can sign up there we’ve got we got a market maker from IMC a strategist from JP Morgan somebody from Bank of America and a couple of more buy side guys who who have not 100% committed but I think they’re going to be there so we’ve got a lot of really really smart folks that are going to be talking about short dated index option trading and trading the derivatives associated with V stocks and where do folks go if they want to access that and check it out and maybe is that the register ahead of time yeah you got a rest ahead of time and again I don’t have a link on me but if you if you go again if you Google your whenever I have to check something about the event I Google your ex and focus day 2024 and boom it takes me right there so there you go a little work use the Google yeah there you go listeners your ex focus day it’s coming up on October 24th so if a whole hour of Mr Rhodes wasn’t enough you’re going to get a whole day full of them here the subtitle of this event is called trading European volatility markets daily options and V stocks Mr.
Rhodes is doing the opening he’s running all the panels so he’s doing his best impersonation of me being Mr.
Host and moderator out there I’m looking forward just to that so if you want your taste a day full of Russell one episode not enough for you then by all means search your ex and virtual focus day and you will get a whole heck of a lot of Russell in your hot little hands and that is going to do it for us on the show today also going to do it for us on the network for those of you on the pro we already did an early kind of hurricane driven episode of options oddities so that’s already in your pro podcast feed you can check it out whenever you have the time and then of course back again on Monday we are not off so back again on Monday for the option block don’t listen to the rumors we’ll be here talking all sorts of mess on the option block on Monday all the way through to next Friday hopefully we’ll have Mr.
Rhodes hot off the plane from RMC hopefully there’s no delays and we’ll be able to join us on the show giving us a hot update there so we’ll see you next Friday another episode of volatility views stay safe out there everybody.
The international volatility segment is brought to you by your ex home of Euro stocks the stocks DAX and the German government bond based Eurobund Euro bubble Euro shots derivatives your ex is the leading European derivatives exchange learn more about trading these stocks futures and options the European volatility benchmark at www.yorix.com slash these stocks are you paying too much to trade options if you’re not trading on public.com the answer is yes public is the only platform where you can earn a rebate on every option contract traded and that’s in addition to no commissions or per contract fees there’s no one else out there paying trading rebates so you won’t find a better deal bottom line if you’re paying more than zero dollars to place an options trade then you’re paying too much switch to public and start getting rebates on every single contract traded only at public.com you’re listening to the options insider radio network the home of the options podcast for more quality options programs visit the options insider dot com or search for options insider radio network in your podcast provider of choice listeners can also access all of our programming through our mobile app available on the iTunes and Google Play stores select programs are also available via live stream at mixler.com slash options dash insider that’s m i x l r dot com slash options dash insider don’t forget to follow along with your favorite programs and submit your own questions for the host set twitter dot com slash options stock twits dot com slash options facebook dot com slash the options insider or via questions at the options insider dot com
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