Welcome to this episode of The Futures Rundown brought to you by T4 Futures and Options.
With your host Mark Longo and guest Dan Gramza.
Futures Free For All
- Answering your futures questions: Discussing the Fed and taking a deep dive into crude oil
Futures 101
- Futures Margin Overview
TRANSCRIPT
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The futures markets can be downright scary.
Limit up, limit down.
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And now it’s time to break into the futures markets.
It’s time for the Futures Rundown.
All right everybody, very happy to hear that music yet again for episode three of the newest addition to the network here, the new kid on the block known as the Futures Rundown.
Welcome to all of you who are joining us, who are curious, shall we say, about these crazy things called Futures.
Want to learn a little more, see what’s trading.
All that fun and a whole bunch more.
My name of course, Mark Longo from the optionsinsider.com as well as from this network that got a little bigger with the addition of this show. 17 and a half years and still not just going strong but growing.
Always happy to see that.
So thanks to all of you who asked, nay demanded that we launch a Futures show.
See ask and then ask again and then ask some more and you shall receive in the form of the Futures Rundown.
We are going out live right now.
So if you want to hear it live in your ear holes, the place to go, theoptionsinsider.com/pro, also gets you access to two great exclusive shows every week including pro Q&A’s.
Just did an awesome one yesterday with a good buddy, Mr.
Matt Ambrison as well as Options Oddities.
You can find all that at theoptionsinsider.com/pro, the place to go to learn more.
As you learn who’s joining us today on the old program, I’m pleased to welcome back for the second part of his double header extravaganza.
The big audio is himself, Mr.
Dan Grams from Grams Capital Management.
Mr.
Dan, welcome back to the show, sir.
Great to be with you, Mark.
Looking forward to another exploration of these Futures markets.
Yeah, and we’re going to mix it up on you again this week because we talked to us trading last week.
This time we’re actually going to kick it off.
Dan, you get to be here for our first ever Futures Free For All segment, sir.
Here we go.
Bring the bell.
It’s time to take on all comers in an epic Q&A battle royale.
All questions can enter, but none can leave without an answer.
It’s time for the Futures Free For All.
All right, Dan, welcome.
I love that drop, by the way.
It’s awesome.
Welcome to the Futures Free For All.
Kind of a silly one.
Having a little bit of a fun with this one, listeners.
But yeah, you know, we love that show’s got a couple episodes under its skin now because you folks are having a chance to reach out to us.
We also reach out to you and, Dan, we have a timely one as of the time that we’re recording this right now.
By the time people hear this next week on the on demand side, we will obviously…
Actually, you know, might come out right before the announcement.
So folks still won’t know.
So it still will be timely next week.
Of course, we’re talking about the Fed, Dan.
That is the subject of our question of the week right now.
We said everyone is debating what the Fed should do next week.
If the Fed cuts a quarter point next week, what happens to the markets?
And we gave our audience four choices.
We said, finally, they’re finally doing a cut.
So it’s going to be a strong rally or it’s not enough of a cut.
So it’s going to be a big sell off or kind of shrug your shoulders, not much going on or something else entirely.
Dan, we’re on that spectrum.
Do you fall?
And then B, where do you think our audience is falling?
Well, my feeling is that they are going to do something.
The labor markets cooled off enough.
Inflation’s come down a bit.
But I think it’s baked into the market right now.
So it could be a not a huge volatility type announcement.
If they do 50 basis points, then there’s two ways to interpret that.
Well, one, they’re recognizing this weaker market and they need to do something in terms of labor.
So that’s good.
But, you know, they wanted a softer labor market all along and that’s what we’re getting.
So I don’t think that’s a huge surprise.
But if they do do 50, then you could say, oh my God, things are bad because they did 50.
So there is no right answer here, but I do feel it’s there.
So I guess out of the choices that you had there, strong rally, nag, don’t see, unless it brings back some confidence to the market that the Fed is doing something, I would say that one or meh, not much.
That’s not a, that’s a heck of an answer.
But I think that the Fed expectations are in line with what they’re probably going to do.
I don’t see, there’s nothing really unusual here, Mark.
Yeah.
Our audience kind of agrees with this.
They say, man, not much is winning right now.
43.6%.
So they’re not expecting much and then not enough.
There’s going to be a big sell off.
It was closer to 50 50 for those two.
Now it has changed, mad, not much taking the driver’s seat and not enough big sell off.
Still number two, but coming in at exactly a third, Dan, 33.3%.
So a third of our audience expects a big sell off.
Doesn’t sound like you’re going that way, Dan.
No, I don’t only because they’re still taking action and the market likes the idea of them taking action.
But not enough do they really have enough fundamental reasons to justify 50 basis points.
And the thing to keep in mind, this quarter or half is not a game changer to our entire economic system.
It takes six months to 18 months for our economy to absorb it.
We’re going to react instantly, but the economy doesn’t.
And so if you think about what does it really mean, it’s not going to be a dramatic change in our economy.
So does it dramatically change inflation?
No, it really doesn’t.
The Fed said before, we’re watching the labor market.
One of the things that’s their mandate is to have full employment.
They want people to have a job.
They want to keep inflation in check and they want price stability.
All right.
So they’re getting near the 2%.
That’s what they wanted.
Labor has cooled off.
That’s what they wanted because softer labor means less pressure on wages, which means lower pressure on inflation.
So that would be the thinking behind that.
And so I really just don’t see any strong reason for our reaction.
The tricky bit is the market is forward thinking and it is demanding.
Remember a while ago, the market was saying, geez, the Fed’s got to do something.
The Fed’s got to do something.
And even though there was absolutely no reason at that point for them to do something.
So if you know what they don’t want to do is lower the rate and then have to raise it.
They happened to them in the 70s.
They don’t want to do that again.
So that’s a sensitivity out there too.
Yeah.
Our audience, only 17.9, Dan, think we’re going to have a strong rally off this.
And then other say five point, I’m not sure what their other is, but one guy, last refuge trader chimed in, says he chose other and says the market bottoms as rates bottom.
So interesting, interesting stuff, Dan.
Let’s shift.
It is good.
Oh no, no, I was.
It was just a good survey.
You did.
I liked that.
We try to take the pulse of the folks out there, Dan.
Yes, you do.
Speaking of the folks, we have a comment here from Ilona M and she’s talking about crude oil, Dan, which I know is near and dear to your heart.
This is, of course, a trend we were highlighting a little bit on the show last week or two weeks ago, really, in the inaugural episode one week ago as we’re recording this, of course, listeners and continuing this week is this debate over what’s going on with crude oil, crude oil on the show as we’re recording it today down another nearly seven percent week over week.
So just starting to look kind of weak.
Like I said, we had our friend Carly Garner on the inaugural episode and she was talking on that and also on Twi for recently that if WTI starts testing the mid 60s, then it might be a lookout below to the bottom area there.
We have a listener chiming in this week, expressing a similar sentiment, but saying maybe it could have bottomed to the saying oil may have bottomed if it can hold this RSI weekly support line and they tweeted out a good graph.
So if you follow us listeners, you could see this graph that they tweeted out.
They said this line that they were talking about listeners is where oil broke out back in 2020.
As you’ll recall, listeners, 2020, a crazy year for oil went negative.
All sorts of madness going on in 2020.
But I said this RSI line, excuse me, is where oil broke out in 2020 and it is now coming back to retest that same line.
Sounds like he agrees with Carly, though.
If it breaks below, then it’s bad news for oil.
But if it can hold the worst, maybe over.
So Dan, I know crude oils top of mind for a lot of people.
I know you have a lot of thoughts.
Let’s start with this analysis.
Do you think it might be bottoming out here?
Do you agree with this or do you think it might have more to go?
Well, I think what supports it in points that you raised, we’ve been here before.
If you look at the earlier part of the year or the latter part of 2023, these are levels between 64 and 68 that we found buyers before today indicates that buyers are coming back in.
And it is hitting those references from a mathematical study point of view in terms of RSI.
But I guess I’m looking at the price action.
And at these levels, almost every time we got below, especially down in the mid-60s, we did find buyers coming back in.
And that’s what we’re seeing today.
So the issue is, if they’re here, this is true.
And the next three days, I think, are very important.
I’d look for this market to be above $70, ideally, by the close of the next three days because it implies that what we’re seeing coming in is not sellers taking some profit, but indeed it has got low enough to find those buyers.
So you want to get paid for the trade.
I think that’s important.
Not that just a few days ago, actually two days ago, we had also evidence that buyers are coming in.
And yesterday we broke to the downside.
There was no follow through.
We have the same setup now.
So fundamentally, we’re not seeing the market respond as everyone expected.
And the OPEC and OPEC Plus said, OK, we’re cutting back on crude oil.
The production data will really raise these prices.
It’ll keep us above, for them, the magic 70.
And for many of them, they want 100.
But that should do it.
We’ll just cut back production.
What didn’t happen, and I think that’s what we’ve seen over the last few months, is there wasn’t the demand to soak it up.
Part of that demand did not come from China.
China’s heating up a little bit now, but it didn’t really come back the way people expected.
So yes, is it cheap?
Yes.
Is it at levels that we found buyers before?
Yes.
Now, is the demand there to sustain a move in crude?
That remains to be seen.
So yes, we are at levels that buyers are coming in.
And if I was a buyer here, I’d look for follow through here in the next three days.
And again, I think the magic 70 is an important reference.
So if we close the week out, for example, above 70, go home over the weekend above 70, that’s an attitude change that we have seen in the market.
But I still go back to this demand issue.
And I’m not sure the demand is there to sustain that move.
And I think that’s what we need to be careful of.
Dan, is it fair to say that if crude, let’s say, breaks through 65 in the near future, are we giving it the big audio, sir?
Can we say that?
Well, I got to tell you, if we do break below, and that is a significant level.
If you think about where we’ve been in the past, and we got a lot more room to the downside in that market.
And if we get below that 65, 64 level, the next one we look at where we found a bounce before is around $60.
That’s then those even numbers and crude seem to be like magnets.
And $60 was a level that we spent quite a bit of time at in the past.
That was in 2023.
So we could be getting near that big adios, at least for a few dollars below that the next level below 60 is around $55.
That’s where we found buyers in the past as well.
That was in 2023.
So we have a few levels here to take a look at that $65, the $60 level, and then $55.
How it behaves when if it gets to those levels will be interesting to see because that determines are we low enough?
Are we cheap enough?
You know, we can get cheap here, but there’s just when it comes to the stock market, there’s always this back and forth.
When crude oil is going up, we see energy stocks, which I have a few.
They look terrific.
But we get to a certain price level for energy.
Now it’s going to start cutting into the profitability of other companies that are consumers of that energy.
Right now, it’s cheap compared to where we’ve been for the last year and a half.
But so yes, I think we could have, I don’t know about the big adios.
I would say a little.
Is there such thing as a little adios too?
I don’t know.
I don’t know.
I just started.
What is the range of the adioses that were given here on the show?
Yes.
I might have to work shop that off the show.
Dan, we’ll get it going.
We’ve got another question here.
This comes from ELMS 43, and they want to know, glad to find a show all about futures.
Well, you’re welcome there.
ELMS 43, you and everyone else who was asking for years.
Now you got one in your hot little hands.
He says the margin discussion particularly was interesting.
Well, thank you.
I’m going to add a section about overnight margin to the conversation.
Oh, well, you know what?
Because I’m in a generous mood, ELMS 43, ask and you shall receive as a little bit of the old Futures 101.
It’s time to shine some light on this mysterious marketplace.
It’s time for Futures 101.
All right, everybody.
Welcome to Futures 101 where we try to dispel some of the air of mystery that hangs over these futures markets.
As you recall in our first episode, if you missed it, let’s go back, check it out.
And you’ll hear our discussion with Carly all about the different types of margin.
We talked about how capital efficient it is to trade futures, whereas if you’re trading stock, the best you can do on a margin perspective is 50%, whereas on the futures, it’s much smaller.
We gave you a good example of the E-mini S&P and talked about what you need to put in to really trade futures, my practical perspective.
And so there’s a lot of different terms we threw around.
Let’s just review a couple.
Of course, there is the initial margin.
That’s the amount you need to actually put down to deposit with your broker in order to establish the trade.
The nice thing about those is they don’t really change long and short, which is kind of nice.
You know, usually if you’re looking at other other asset classes, if you want to sell a stock short, it could be short-stale restricted.
It charges you a hefty rate.
Same thing with options.
Things can get a little bit pricey if you really want to short things aggressively.
In the futures world, it’s pretty much the same, which is refreshing.
There’s the maintenance margin, which your account can’t really drop below.
Otherwise, you will get a margin call from the broker that is established by the listing exchange.
So that’s kind of a hard and fast rule.
It’s going to range, obviously, depending on contract.
Usually the ballpark is somewhere around 3 to north of 10, maybe 12% of the actual notional value of the contract.
Remember, we talked about how to determine that notional value on the first episode as well.
You have the contract specs, and that will tell you exactly what the notional size is.
Multiply that number, whatever it is.
The current price of what’s trading, let’s say we talked about WTI in that episode.
Let’s say it’s trading $65 right now.
We’re just talking about it.
It’s for 1,000 barrels.
So 1,000 times 65,000, $65,000 would be the notional value of one WTI contract right now.
So that’s maintenance margins you see that are set by the exchange.
Going to vary somewhere in that range.
As you can see, 3 to 12%, that’s a heck of a lot more competitive than 50% when you’re talking equity.
But there’s more to it, Dan, obviously, than that.
As brought up by our listener here, he’d like us to discuss overnight margins.
So Dan, this brings up an interesting point.
A lot of people when they go to a futures broker, it could be plus 500, it could be whatever broker you choose out there, listeners.
When you go to their initial landing page, you’re probably going to see a lot of different rates thrown at you.
And this is also how brokers advertise and market themselves now.
They have, of course, that maintenance margin level that is set by the exchange.
But there’s also some play they have in that right now.
And that is in the other two things that maybe people are confused by, Dan.
The intraday margin levels, which are going to be usually lower.
And then the flip side, what was asked about by our listener, the overnight margin.
So let’s start there, Dan.
You’ve been trading futures and educating for a long time.
When someone comes to you and they ask you, what the heck are these things intraday and overnight margin and why are they different from, let’s say, the initial and the maintenance?
What do you tell them, Dan?
Well, when it comes to the margin, the whole concept behind it, it’s for the clearing purposes of the clearinghouse.
So during the day, they allow a lighter or a smaller number when it comes to margin because that means you’re not going to hold it overnight.
So the exposure you have is only during that session.
Doesn’t mean it can’t move a lot, but it’s just during that trading session that you’re participating in.
So from the exchange clearinghouse point of view, their exposure is less.
But if someone holds on to a position, then they have exposure.
And that margin requirement, it’s got to be paid before the next opening of the market.
And if the broker doesn’t collect it, then they’re paying it because the exchange clearinghouse is going to require that.
So the broker turns around, says, okay, I’m not financing people’s positions.
And here’s the requirement that you need to have.
The overnight margin for most markets, though, is the same because you’re holding a position overnight, and you’re required to have market maintenance margin, or I should say the full margin on file paid when you initiate a position.
And then when you close that position out, that margin can go right back to your account.
But that overnight margin really depends on what your broker does.
It’s like the intraday margin.
The broker can have some flexibility there.
But like Mark said, when it comes to the initial margin that you have to put up, which means the amount of money that will be taken out of your account to hold a long or short position, the margin will be the same for long or short.
But if you’re going to hold it overnight, that exposure remains, and so does that margin requirement.
The initial margin is what the exchange requires, and that will be held.
Intraday margin is something that the broker has some flexibility with.
And the overnight margin depends on how the broker handles that and the market itself.
So there’s a couple variables there in that regard, and that’s something you just want to check with your broker.
Those intraday margin rates, if you’re going to be a day trader, for example, can vary quite a bit because they have that flexibility.
But it’s just part of the requirement to trade futures.
And you know, Mark, another thing you said that’s important is the amount of money that’s deposited for margin compared to the size of the trade, of the contract that you’re trading, it is pretty small.
And it can be from that 3%, 0%, to 12% range.
So you’re putting up a lot smaller amount of money to control a very large asset.
Excuse me.
Yeah, it’s $65,000 worth of crude oil.
It’s not a small amount, you know?
Yeah.
So you’re not putting anywhere near that amount of money in your account.
And just to clarify for our listeners, I kind of just touched on it.
But again, they’re going to look at these splash pages, they’re going to see a bunch of numbers coming at them, and they’re going to be confused, maybe a little bit intimidated.
Why is it lower here?
Why is it higher there?
I know it’s going to vary by broker and by product and things, but in your experience, what is the general cutoff for the intraday to end and then the overnight kicks in?
It’s right when the day session finishes.
So if we’re going to talk about, well, just pick an exchange, the CME group, those markets trade 23 hours a day.
They stop the day session.
So today, for example, if it’s Wednesday, it’ll stop at 4 o’clock Chicago time for one hour.
It starts again at 5 o’clock Chicago time.
And in between that, it does two things.
It gives them a chance to check all systems to make sure they’re working properly.
And that’s the difference between when the trade is accounted for.
In other words, up until 4 o’clock, if it’s Wednesday, up until 4 o’clock, that’s a Wednesday trade.
Starting at 5 o’clock, that would be considered a Thursday trade.
The way I look at it is I look at it by time zone.
So I’m in Chicago.
But if you look at 4 o’clock, the US is finished.
At 5 o’clock, we’re still trading, but it’s really representing the time zone in Asia.
About 1 or 2 o’clock in the morning, you have Europe kicking in.
And Europe overlaps some of the US session, depending on what part of the world and what time of year.
So it could go until 1030, 1130 Chicago time.
Then you have Europe trading and the US.
The reason I break it down by those time zones is it’s how they’re traded.
And it goes back to what I think of on the institutional side.
In some markets, really, the volatility doesn’t always happen in the US session.
It could happen in the Asia session.
And it could be Japanese yen.
There could be fundamentals in Asia that are happening that drive that market.
It could be something that we have coming up.
Oh, the election, presidential election.
We may not know at the end of the day by 4 o’clock that who’s going to be president.
We may not find out until late at night.
And at that point, it could be in the Asia session or the European session that we find that out.
So when I think about that, the amount of money it requires, the leverage, which is really what we’re talking about.
And most people who trade futures, by the way, including the institutions that I deal with, I don’t know of anyone who trades futures to get the physical item.
They’re trading it for the price movement.
So a lot of the firms, somebody I just talked to a week ago, very large in the agricultural marketplace, they don’t head to hedge, but they don’t get the physical.
They hedge for the price movement, just like you and I would if we speculate in the futures market.
We’re trading it for the price movement.
Well said, so I’m going to throw you some examples.
Then we’ll get out of here for this week.
Listen, don’t want to overwhelm you with too much data here, but something to think about.
We tried to get a representative sampling of the different margin rates.
Again, it’s going to vary by broker.
Obviously, the maintenance is going to be set by the exchange, but how they come at it, the brokers are going to going to vary.
So a little bit representative sampling.
Remember, we talked about the E-mini SV 500.
It was the number two most active on our show last week when we talked about it.
It’s almost every day going to be one of the most active futures contracts out there.
We talked about it on episode one, the notional value with interestingly enough, the futures right now are pretty close to the level we were back on episode one a couple of weeks ago.
So we’re going to be north of a quarter of a million dollars is about two hundred seventy six thousand dollars of notional value on that show.
We’re still in that ballpark right now.
So again, it’s not going to cost you two hundred seventy six thousand dollars to trade a one lot of S&P E-mini futures.
In fact, the intraday, remember we talked about the difference between intraday and overnight.
The intraday initial margin you have to put down if you just want to do an intraday trade, which most people do.
You don’t want to carry your S&P futures position.
Probably.
It’s only fifteen hundred and eighteen dollars on average.
You’re looking at some of these different platforms, listeners.
So again, that’s not much.
And your maintenance margin is going to be thirteen eighty.
So if you drop below that, you’ll have to kick a little bit more in as we talked about in episode one.
So again, you’re talking from a capital efficiency perspective, especially if you want to be a near dated trader, you’re not going to hold things overnight.
Then it is extremely you get over a quarter of a million dollars worth of S&P exposure for a little over fifteen hundred dollars.
And now if you do want to hold it as our listener asked into the overnight period, gets a little bit more pricey.
It’s talking fifteen thousand one hundred eighty.
So again, you’re talking pretty much 10 X what that intraday initial is.
And that’s against a maintenance margin of thirteen thousand eight hundred.
So again, things get more pricey for obvious reasons as Dan just laid out, obviously a lot more risk entailed and holding things through the overnight session.
So they’re going to charge you accordingly.
But still fifteen thousand dollars for a position that’s worth north of a quarter of a million dollars margin wise and capital efficiency wise.
That’s pretty hard to be.
It’s something even smaller, of course, the micro is out there as well.
That’s one tenth the size.
So every number I just said just divided by 10 instead of 1518 is one hundred fifty one eighty for the intraday initial.
The intraday maintenance only one hundred thirty eight dollars.
You’re talking some pretty manageable amounts here and the overnight is 1518.
So again, getting back to what we were talking about before for the intraday for the big E-mini S&P future.
So again, a lot of numbers.
I know it’s a lot to digest, but something to keep in mind as you’re looking at the splash pages, whether it’s for the plus five hundreds of the world or other brokers out there, you’re going to look at them all.
They’re going to leap out at you saying, look, here’s our rates for this.
That’s how they draw you in these days.
So just something to bear in mind as you’re looking at these forewarned, for educated is indeed forearmed in these markets out there.
Something to think about as you look at these numbers so you understand all these splash pages that are coming at you out here these days.
All right, Mr.
Dan, you did it.
You survived two episodes back to back.
How was it?
Did you have fun for your first time?
I always have fun with you, Mark.
I really enjoyed it.
Always great to be with you.
It’s fun exploring this with you.
And if folks want to explore more stuff with you, maybe they want to see what you’re giving the big adios to.
Where should they go?
What should they do?
They could go to DanGramsa.com.
That’s a website that I have, and I look at these futures markets.
I look at 22 different markets, six different complexes.
So stock indexes, currencies, interest rate metals, energy, AGs.
And there’s a free video there that gives an oversight.
He also gives some red and green lines which represent buy and sell levels, not buy and sell recommendations, but just sharing how I view certain levels and I think the importance of those levels as a market develops.
And those lines change as the price action changes.
And you can go back 10 years and look at how the — what did I say when that happened and what were we looking at when this happened.
Well, you can go back and look at that.
So that’s a reference.
I think that people could check out.
>> There you go, DanGramsa.com, G-R-A-M-Z-A.com, the place to go to kick the tires and light the fires.
And while you’re checking things out online, head on over to plus500.com or to CTSFutures.com.
Take your pick.
Either way will get you to their offering there.
You can see their T4 desktop tool, which is pretty cool if you want to get into all this data we’re talking about on the futures side and a whole bunch more.
CTSFutures.com, the place to go to kick the tires and light the fires.
That’s going to do it for us on a pretty heavy show day on the network.
No rest for the wicked.
Four shows back to back.
Listeners, hope you enjoyed it.
If you’re listening on demand, of course, this second episode will be hitting you next week.
Back again tomorrow, listeners, for our usual doubleheader of, of course, the option block in the morning with our pals over there at CBoL, then back again to talk some futures options activities.
So if you like futures, you want to come back for Twifo tomorrow with our friends over there at CME Friday.
We go deep into vol as we do every week on volatility views.
Then after that one final time, exclusively for our pro friends, we come back for a little bit of options oddities.
You can find out more about that.
The options insider.com/pro is the place to go to learn more.
And we’re back again next week, all the way through to another episode of the futures rundown.
Stay safe out there.
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