No ?Pop? In Corn Prices Ahead Of USDA Report
Today’s Spotlight Market
A cool and wet spring this year has kept producers out of the fields throughout the Midwest keeping Corn plantings running behind schedule. The USDA estimated that 29% of the U.S. Corn crop has been planted as of May 4th. This is 13% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Producers in Iowa, the nation?s leading Corn producing state, had only 23% of the expected Corn plantings done vs. nearly 50% for the past 5 years. However, weather forecasts calling for warmer temperatures the next several days could see producers working around the clock to finish the Corn plantings while Mother Nature is in a cooperative mood.?? ?
Fundamentals
The rally in new-crop Corn prices has stalled recently despite concerns that Corn production from Ukraine will be sharply lower this year. Estimates out of Ukraine are for this seasons Corn crop to be between 15 to 25% lower than last year with exports expected to fall even more. The U.S. has seen increased export business for Corn the past few weeks with weekly sales running ahead of the weekly pace needed to meet USDA projections.
This Friday, traders will get their first peak at the government estimate for Corn inventories for the 2014/15 marketing year when the USDA releases their data in the May crop production and supply/demand report. Analysts expect the USDA to predict this coming season?s Corn ending stocks will increase from this past seasons estimate near 1.310 billion bushels, but the range of estimates have been quite wide. Anywhere within a range of 1.500 to 2.000 billion bushels would have to be considered a ?bull?s-eye? given the current ?unknowns? for this year?s production totals.
Technical Notes? -? View Today’s Chart
Looking at the daily chart for December Corn futures, we notice prices becoming range-bound since the beginning of April, following a $0.65 per bushel price rally that began back in mid-January. Prices are now holding above both the 20 and 200-day moving average and the 14-day RSI has once again moved above 50 with a current reading of 54.09. The high of 517.00, made back on April 9th looks to be the next major resistance level for the December futures, with support seen at the March 31st low of 476.00.??
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