011013SI

As of this post silver is trading higher by 1.87% trading at its 200 day MA; identified by the light blue line. What has impressed me the most is that the up sloping trend line has been able to hold for the last few weeks. I remain friendly to silver as long as prices remain above the recent lows. Last week prices provided a head fake trading above its 200 day MA before reversing the next day. That is why the next few days? action will be critical. It is no mystery that equities trading up to fresh highs and the dollar crashing 1% contributed to the strength in the metals complex today.? If outside market influence continues to support expect March futures to trade near their 100 day MA; identified by the red line just above $32.50/ounce.

I like buying dips in futures and have also priced out bullish option spreads in May for some clients. At this juncture I cannot rule out a sub $30 trade so do not go all in but some bullish exposure does make sense to me all things considered. With both the PPI and CPI out next week that should show some degree of inflation I think even a back and fill trade under $30 should not discourage but could be bought for longer term swing traders. I will say though that trading gold and silver appears to be the same trade so there is no reason to have outsized positions in each at least from my standpoint. They both should take you to the same destination; in my estimation silver will likely just be a bumpier ride.