Wet Weather Stalls Soybean Harvest
Today’s Spotlight Market
The following are the highlights from last week?s USDA crop production and supply/demand report:
Corn: Production 14,523 billion bu. vs. 14,395 billion bu. last month
?????????? Ave. Yield: 174.7 bu. per acre vs. 171.7 bu. per acre last month
?????????? 2014-15 Stocks: 2.114 billion bu. vs. 2.002 billion bu. last month
Soybeans: Production 3.927 billion bu. vs. 3.913 billion bu. last month
?????????????????? Ave. Yield: 47.6 bu. per acre vs. 46.6 bu. per acre last month
?????????????????? 2014-15 Stocks: 478 million bu. vs. 475 million bu. last month
Fundamentals
Soybean futures got a much needed lift as heavy rainfall has moved over much of the central portions of the U.S. Wet weather will keep producers out of the fields, further slowing this season?s harvest. How long the price recovery will last remains to be seen, but the overall fundaments continue to favor bean bears. For Soybeans, we saw the USDA raising U.S. production totals to 3.927 billion bushels in its October crop production report, up only slightly from the previous month, but 17% higher than last year. While the estimate for harvested acreage slipped, this was more than made up by a rise in the average yield by 1 bushel per acre to 47.6 bushels per acre. U.S. Soybean stockpiles are expected to swell for the 2014-15 marketing season to 478 million bushels vs. 130 million bushels this season. With global Soybean inventories expected to be at record levels, lower prices may be needed to spur U.S. exports or unfavorable weather in Brazil and Argentina as the Soybean planting season begins in earnest.
Technical Notes? -? View Today’s Chart
Looking at the daily chart for November Soybeans, we notice prices attempting to form a bottom as psychological support at 900.00 continues to hold. The recent rally has taken the market above the 20-day moving average and trading volume has been in the upper end of the recent range. The 14-day RSI has rebounded from oversold levels to a more neutral reading of 50.64. The low of 904.00 made back on October 1 looks to be support for the November futures, with resistance seen at the September 16 high of 999.75.
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